Storm Debi - 13 to 14th of November

[The PIT]

Could the 13th and 14th see the next named storm? GFs has crossing the N of the UK while UKMO a little further south. The ECM doesn't want to know.

 

Edited November 12, 2023 by Paul
Added storm name now it's been named

[MattH]

This is becoming even more noteworthy for parts of Ireland but particularly the Irish Sea and into NW Eng on Monday. 

The very late development of this low is seemingly keeping discussion on it to a minimum and there does remain model spread over it's develoment. However, there is equally enough evidence to suggest that "last minute" warnings will be issued for the aforementioned areas today, covering Mon for wind. 

UKV in particular producing some nasty wind gusts for NW Eng and N Eng through the middle of Mon while there is now quite widespread MOGREPS agreement along with a clear and strong signal from the EPS. 

Whether it's named or not is another matter it probably won't be because of the last minute nature of its develoment which is another reason the naming system is a farce, but that's another topic of discussion. 

Certainly one to watch rest of Sunday in HRES data... 

Regards. Matt. 

[Summer Sun]

Storm Debi named

[Paul]

Good to see you making use of the new chart viewer @MattH 

 

[StingJet]

Debi will make for an interesting school run here tomorrow morning, especially with the Menai Bridge down to one lane and closed to high sided vehicles, forcing the high siders to run the gauntlet over the primary route on and off the Island .. the A55 over the Britannia Bridge, which during high wind conditions is also closed for high siders, they are normally routed / diverted to the Menai Bridge.
 
0800hrs has the windflow WSW up at 70mph straight up the Menai Straits ... worst case scenario for both bridges 

The strongest of Debi's winds more than likely will be a narrow band, affecting the south of the Isle of Man and down towards Anglesey,  and on into the coasts of Cumbria, Morecambe Bay and down to the Ribble Est.  and Preston, then transitioning east across Nw England over the Pennines around mid day, and on into NE England for the afternoon. 

A pretty gnarly day on the cards, it is Autumn, so somewhat BAU


 

And also  the significant winds across Eire on Debi's southern flank on approach, prior to day break ,   with strong winds affecting NI on her NE Flank, as Debi transitions from Ireland across the northern Irish Sea into Sw Scotland 

Met Eireann have Debi at Red Alert status



& noted on the ECM StormTrack




 

Edited November 12, 2023 by StingJet

[Ryan H]

1 hour ago, StingJet said:

Debi will make for an interesting school run here tomorrow morning, especially with the Menai Bridge down to one lane and closed to high sided vehicles, forcing the high siders to run the gauntlet over the primary route on and off the Island .. the A55 over the Britannia Bridge, which during high wind conditions is also closed for high siders, they are normally routed / diverted to the Menai Bridge.
 
0800hrs has the windflow WSW up at 70mph straight up the Menai Straits ... worst case scenario for both bridges 

The strongest of Debi's winds more than likely will be a narrow band, affecting the south of the Isle of Man and down towards Anglesey,  and on into the coasts of Cumbria, Morecambe Bay and down to the Ribble Est.  and Preston, then transitioning east across Nw England over the Pennines around mid day, and on into NE England for the afternoon. 

A pretty gnarly day on the cards, it is Autumn, so somewhat BAU


 

And also  the significant winds across Eire on Debi's southern flank on approach, prior to day break ,   with strong winds affecting NI on her NE Flank, as Debi transitions from Ireland across the northern Irish Sea into Sw Scotland 

Met Eireann have Debi at Red Alert status



& noted on the ECM StormTrack




 

Hmmm don't know if this would be as impactful as Storm Ciarán. Though thankfully its in north of England since I am from the south. 

[MattH]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

Storm Debi named

 

2 hours ago, Paul said:

Good to see you making use of the new chart viewer @MattH 

 

Hi Paul. 

Yeah great little addition is the model viewer. Really tidy and easy to use and UKV data is great. Like the ability to flick back to previous run as well so see if there is any consistency, etc. Just need a precip type plot for winter now...

Cheers. Matt. 

[MattH]

There is a good shout for this to be a Shapiro-Keyser (K-P) system. The UKMO certainly on board with this and highlighted on the 00Z plot tomorrow with a fractured cold front...

This is likely to be a very nasty system indeed for parts of Ireland the Irish Sea and into NW and N Eng on Mon. The wind gusts over the Pennines could be extremely disruptive especially main road networks that run north to south/south to north with extreme cross winds.

This system isn't getting a great deal of attention due to the last minute development of it but this is serious for the aforementioned areas tomorrow. 

Matt

 

 

Edited November 12, 2023 by MattH

[Scuba steve]

1 hour ago, Ryan H said:

Hmmm don't know if this would be as impactful as Storm Ciarán. Though thankfully its in north of England since I am from the south. 

Thankfully it’s in the north of England ?

[alexisj9]

1 minute ago, Scuba steve said:

Thankfully it’s in the north of England ?

Hmm, well, I'm not complaining, Ciaran was bad enough down here, but it'll be bad for some. 

[StingJet]

11 minutes ago, MattH said:

There is a good shout for this to be a Shapiro-Keyser (K-P) system. The UKMO certainly on board with this and highlighted on the 00Z plot tomorrow with a fractured cold front...

This is likely to be a very nasty system indeed for parts of Ireland the Irish Sea and into NW and N Eng on Mon. The wind gusts over the Pennines could be extremely disruptive especially main road networks that run north to south/south to north with extreme cross winds.

This system isn't getting a great deal of attention due to the last minute development of it but this is serious for the aforementioned areas tomorrow. 

Matt

 

 

RPReplay_Final1699800609.mov 37.37 MB · 1 download

 

"Battening down"  now in hand,  not helped by a clutch of heavy showers tracking in off the Irish Sea



K-P System and possible Sting Jet formation ?

Edited November 12, 2023 by StingJet

[Scuba steve]

Can’t remember the name of the storm in 2005 but it produced a jet that completely destroyed 60 ft of my brick garden wall so hopefully no such occurrence from Debi

[Cloud 10]

https://resources.eumetrain.org/satmanu/shapiro_keyser_cm/index.html

 

 

[January Snowstorm]

Met Eireann gone red just now for parts of Ireland!!

[StingJet]

19 minutes ago, Scuba steve said:

Can’t remember the name of the storm in 2005 but it produced a jet that completely destroyed 60 ft of my brick garden wall so hopefully no such occurrence from Debi

Hi Steve , did n't realise Arnside was in Cumbria .

Here's a useful link to wiki euro named storms,, Sounds like Storm Gero of Jan 2005,

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_European_windstorms#2000–2009
 

Edited November 12, 2023 by StingJet

[Day 10]

31 minutes ago, Scuba steve said:

Thankfully it’s in the north of England ?

Don't ya know mate, we don't matter

[Scuba steve]

6 minutes ago, StingJet said:

Hi Steve , did n't realise Arnside was in Cumbria .

Here's a useful link to wiki euro named storms,, Sound like Storm Gero of Jan 2005,

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_European_windstorms#2000–2009
 

A lot of folk do think it’s Lancashire ,thanks for the link 

[StingJet]

5 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Don't ya know mate, we don't matter

Day 10 in Wirral .. remember Storm Kyrill 18th Jan 2007 , one of the most destructive euro wind storms this century ,,  primarily down to the path it took across northern europe, covering many countries 
We were at West Kirby waiting for the wind to ease off a tad , lakeside ano readings were showing gusts in excess of 80kts 

[Day 10]

3 minutes ago, StingJet said:

Day 10 in Wirral .. remember Storm Kyrill 18th Jan 2007 , one of the most destructive euro wind storms this century ,,  primarily down to the path it took across northern europe, covering many countries 
We were at West Kirby waiting for the wind to ease off a tad , lakeside ano readings were showing gusts in excess of 80kts 

Hi Stingjet,

I've just mentioned something similar in our local thread, that must be the same one I'm thinking of were Morrison's etc was badly flooded due to a combined high tide?

[iand61]

29 minutes ago, Scuba steve said:

A lot of folk do think it’s Lancashire ,thanks for the link 

Wrong side of the river now but didn’t it used to be in Lancashire.

a bit like Manchester and Liverpool are both still in Lancashire in all but administration.

anyway you’re up north somewhere and it’s going to be windy tomorrow so better get those hatches battened down.

 

[Downburst]

45 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Met Eireann gone red just now for parts of Ireland!!

Just to be precise, the red warning is for a two hour period in the early hours and the red moves into counties as the storm moves east etc. so no red warning for daylight working hours. https://www.met.ie/tomorrow.html

[Paul]

3 hours ago, MattH said:

Just need a precip type plot for winter now...

Lol, were you eavesdropping on us last week? Is high on the list to do, so hopefully won't be more than a week or so out.  

[Scuba steve]

6 minutes ago, iand61 said:

Wrong side of the river now but didn’t it used to be in Lancashire.

a bit like Manchester and Liverpool are both still in Lancashire in all but administration.

anyway you’re up north somewhere and it’s going to be windy tomorrow so better get those hatches battened down.

 

As was barrow ulverston dalton etc and sill have La postcodes ,lol

[iand61]

2 minutes ago, Scuba steve said:

As was barrow ulverston dalton etc and sill have La postcodes ,lol

Sounds a bit nicer being in Cumbria though

[Paul]

Update from @Nick F

Remembrance Sunday calm before Storm Debi arrives Monday morning

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

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The weather will be relatively benign for Remembrance Sunday. However, a deepening low named Storm Debi will arrive across Ireland tonight before moving across N England Monday, bringing severe gales...