Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion

[In Absence of True Seasons]

19 minutes ago, East Lancs Rain said:

April, May, June and September are really the only good months of the year here, no wonder I moan so much!

I often toy with the idea of moving up North so I can be alot closer to all the hiking, camping and rock climbing areas I enjoy...but I genuinely don't think I'd be able to hack the climate!

Most months have barely any usable weather anyway. It's just a pain in the bum because when a spell of good weather lands, I have to make the 4/5 hour drive up from London/Essex. Be much easier if the Lake District, Peaks etc were, say, within an hour away. Can go for a hike after finishing work in summer!

Big price to pay though with the even wetter and duller climate than SE England. 

If only I'd been born in somewhere like Oregon or Northern California. *Sigh*.

[CryoraptorA303]

3 hours ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

If the Gulf Stream shut down, would we not end up having a climate similar to North American locations on a similar latitude to us? Like Montreal?

First off, it's AMOC that could slow down or collapse, not the Gulf Stream which is mediated by the rotation of the Earth and will not collapse.

Second, no, that's a media trope. We will still be far more oceanic than eastern Canada. Although I wouldn't rule out London reaching Montreal's summer averages. At the end of the day we are still an archipelago next to a fairly warm ocean, and we have a hot desert to our immediate south. We are not going to get Canada-style winters without a return to glacial conditions, which is impossible with AMOC slowdown. We'll become more like North American climates than we are now, but we will by no means be an analogue. Parts of lowland Scotland and NE England might end up with a month below 0C average daily max, but that's about it. In that way further south could end up resembling a less cold version of somewhere like Toronto in the winter though, with very cold but generally not very long lasting spells intermixed with much milder southerly and westerly driven weather like today, except drier.

Little publicised fact about significant AMOC slowdown is our summers also get hotter than they are today with considerably more high pressure driven weather. It would also become significantly drier year-round. The main threat to agriculture etc. wouldn't be any lowering winter temperatures, it'd be the significant aridification of the European climate. I have no idea what the impact on sunshine levels would be, but I imagine Europe would become considerably less dull as the weather becomes much more HP dominated.

[Harsh Climate]

Anyone else thinking that Denmark are having a 1963 esque winter lol, GFS 0-384h just locked into cold and snowfall potential!

Edited January 6 by Harsh Climate

[WolfeEire]

Met Eireann this evening suggesting a milder outcome for next weekend, for Ireland at least. 

Met.ie

[raz.org.rain]

Looking like that vortex disruption is going straight for Canada  

 

[reef]

1 hour ago, raz.org.rain said:

Looking like that vortex disruption is going straight for Canada  

 

That's one run from 00z this morning and it was an outlier for Reykjavík with SLP being too low suggesting it was incorrect. The 12z runs by and large don't suggest this. High pressure almost certainly will be there in a week's time but that's all the detail we can tell for now. Things will change and vary.

[East Lancs Rain]

50 minutes ago, WolfeEire said:

Met Eireann this evening suggesting a milder outcome for next weekend, for Ireland at least. 

Met.ie

It hasn’t even got cold yet, lol! 

3 hours ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

I often toy with the idea of moving up North so I can be alot closer to all the hiking, camping and rock climbing areas I enjoy...but I genuinely don't think I'd be able to hack the climate!

Most months have barely any usable weather anyway. It's just a pain in the bum because when a spell of good weather lands, I have to make the 4/5 hour drive up from London/Essex. Be much easier if the Lake District, Peaks etc were, say, within an hour away. Can go for a hike after finishing work in summer!

Big price to pay though with the even wetter and duller climate than SE England. 

If only I'd been born in somewhere like Oregon or Northern California. *Sigh*.

Maybe a move up to NE would be a good compromise. The sunshine and rainfall levels are similar to London, thanks to some protection from the Atlantic from the Pennines, it’s just a few degrees cooler.. And you’d be closer to the Lakes and the peaks.

1 hour ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

First off, it's AMOC that could slow down or collapse, not the Gulf Stream which is mediated by the rotation of the Earth and will not collapse.

Second, no, that's a media trope. We will still be far more oceanic than eastern Canada. Although I wouldn't rule out London reaching Montreal's summer averages. At the end of the day we are still an archipelago next to a fairly warm ocean, and we have a hot desert to our immediate south. We are not going to get Canada-style winters without a return to glacial conditions, which is impossible with AMOC slowdown. We'll become more like North American climates than we are now, but we will by no means be an analogue. Parts of lowland Scotland and NE England might end up with a month below 0C average daily max, but that's about it. In that way further south could end up resembling a less cold version of somewhere like Toronto in the winter though, with very cold but generally not very long lasting spells intermixed with much milder southerly and westerly driven weather like today, except drier.

Little publicised fact about significant AMOC slowdown is our summers also get hotter than they are today with considerably more high pressure driven weather. It would also become significantly drier year-round. The main threat to agriculture etc. wouldn't be any lowering winter temperatures, it'd be the significant aridification of the European climate. I have no idea what the impact on sunshine levels would be, but I imagine Europe would become considerably less dull as the weather becomes much more HP dominated.

Interesting. I’d like the higher pressure and drier weather, and maybe the warmer summers (as long as it didn’t become too hot) but I don’t think I’d be too fond of the colder winters... But at least we’d get more snow. It would probably be worth it though for the nicer springs and autumns and the warmer, drier summers.

6 hours ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

 

I actually don't dislike SE England's climate outside of the dullness. Aside from outlier years like 2023, rainfall in London isn't actually as bad as the stereotypes, and as you say, summer is generally pretty warm, and Spring can bring great conditions too. But the lack of average annual sunshine hours are the primary issue. Alongside any real wintry weather most years. London is about 20% less sunny than the USA's dullest city, Seattle, which I've heard many Americans bemoan as a very miserable place to live because it's so cloudy. Perhaps they should check Stornoway's climate and be thankful for Seattle haha. 

If the Gulf Stream shut down, would we not end up having a climate similar to North American locations on a similar latitude to us? Like Montreal? 

Yeah I don’t think Londons climate is too bad - I would prefer it a bit sunnier and with summers a bit cooler though. Maybe a bit milder winter too... Average max of 10C in January and 22C in July with around 2000 hours of sunshine a year would make it a great climate for me. 
 

I think if the Gulf Stream shut down we’d probably end up with a climate like Newfoundland, like in the chart below.

 

Newfoundland climate: weather by month, temperature, rain - Climates to Travel

WWW.CLIMATESTOTRAVEL.COM

---

Climate information for Newfoundland (Canada) - weather averages in Celsius and Fahrenheit. With tips on the best time to visit.

 

[raz.org.rain]

15 minutes ago, Metwatch said:

Nice to see the sunshine this afternoon, perhaps more tomorrow then Tuesday / Wednesday, most welcome!

 

 

It's all relative. Those who live in interior southern Spain, low 30s would be classed as a cool day in summer. Meanwhile 26C in Reykjavík would be record breaking and those living there might even say it's "hot."

Actually this might be the best place to ask this question, but I am curious... if we use the past ten or twenty years as the data set, I wonder what the average would work out as? Obviously it wouldn't be entirely representative as it's a relatively short time bracket.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Why are we STILL talking about summer in winter?!

[LetItSnow!]

7 hours ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

Cloud-busting tech from the EU (by way of China). Opposes the cloud-seeding tech that the Tories employ in England to keep us plebs deflated and disenthused

Her and Willy thank you for the appreciation.

[stainesbloke]

Another grim day here with rain this morning. It did ease off but remained gloomy and damp, with a chill in the air. Could really do with some drier and clearer air now, the SAD is really kicking in

[CryoraptorA303]

2 hours ago, East Lancs Rain said:

Yeah I don’t think Londons climate is too bad - I would prefer it a bit sunnier and with summers a bit cooler though. Maybe a bit milder winter too... Average max of 10C in January and 22C in July with around 2000 hours of sunshine a year would make it a great climate for me. 

Sounds like you'd like the NoCal/south Oregon coast: Mild to nonexistent winters, warm summers and very sunny as it's in the subtropical zone, but so engulfed by the sea breeze that it almost never gets seriously hot in summer. Perhaps the far coast of Portugal too like Porto.

2 hours ago, East Lancs Rain said:

I think if the Gulf Stream shut down we’d probably end up with a climate like Newfoundland, like in the chart below.

AMOC, not the Gulf Stream, as explained numerous times.

And no, we would be nowhere as cold as Newfoundland. We'd see marginally colder winters than today, translating to perhaps January seeing below 0°C average maximum perhaps north of North Yorkshire and some isolated spots in interior East Anglia, maybe the rural areas surrounding Cambridge, and summers would be significantly warmer than in Newfoundland, with much of East Anglia and the south coast likely seeing mid to high 20s average highs in July and August. Due to the drier air however daily minima in summer would likely not change much from now but would still increase to some level, and of course background climate change is going to keep pushing that baseline average higher and higher over time.

As I said, we are still an archpelago off a superpeninsula in a very warm ocean for the latitude, we are not going to see Canada-style winters without a significant reduction in global temperatures, which as we all know is not going to happen for the next several tens if not hundreds of thousands of years.

All of this talk is a red herring anyway, the chances of us seeing a significant slowdown of AMOC, let alone a collapse, in this century are next to zero at current estimates. The idea of an AMOC collapse is hyped up in popular media for the sensation value. It is very likely none of us here typing today will live to see a notable slowdown at all.

[raz.org.rain]

2 minutes ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

Sounds like you'd like the NoCal/south Oregon coast: Mild to nonexistent winters, warm summers and very sunny as it's in the subtropical zone, but so engulfed by the sea breeze that it almost never gets seriously hot in summer. Perhaps the far coast of Portugal too like Porto.

Northwestern Iberia has a relatively cool and wet climate compared to the rest of the peninsula, particularly Galicia. It's sort of a odd version of culture shock... when you think of Spain you picture arid, dry and distinctly Mediterranean features. But regions such as Asturias could easily be confused for the Lake District. Probably sees the same volume of rainfall too. The climate of the north coast is somewhat similar to Ireland if I remember right, their location on the Atlantic gives them that same overcast damp climate. The coast of western France is actually probably drier and warmer somehow, I'd assume the Bay of Biscay creates some kind of cyclonic effect that drags all of that Atlantic muck into northern Spain. Fortunately for Spain, the north coast is lined with a large mountain range that helps to hinder any Atlantic dullness making its way inland.

[CryoraptorA303]

Just now, raz.org.rain said:

Northwestern Iberia has a relatively cool and wet climate compared to the rest of the peninsula, particularly Galicia. It's sort of a odd version of culture shock... when you think of Spain you picture arid, dry and distinctly Mediterranean features. But regions such as Asturias could easily be confused for the Lake District. Probably sees the same volume of rainfall too. The climate of the north coast is somewhat similar to Ireland if I remember right, their location on the Atlantic gives them that same overcast damp climate. The coast of western France is actually probably drier and warmer somehow, I'd assume the Bay of Biscay creates some kind of cyclonic effect that drags all of that Atlantic muck into northern Spain. Fortunately for Spain, the north coast is lined with a large mountain range that helps to hinder any Atlantic dullness making its way inland.

Indeed, I imagine many non-Spanish would be shocked at how wet northern Spain can be, especially in winter. They make Cornwall look arid!

I imagine part of the reason for the west coast of France becoming Med-shifted in comparison is the mentioned mountain ranges: Southern high pressure systems and hot air is quite easily shifted along the lowlands up into western france. The mountains of central-northern Spain is funnily enough probably part of the reason why we can reach some of the extremes we do, with them deflecting the hot air further north through the lowlands of France into us.

[Metwatch]

50 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Why are we STILL talking about summer in winter?!

Lol because modern winters in the south are grim, dull, snowless and devoid of any life for the most part. Many look forward to the warmer, brighter days with more sun in spring and summer

[*Stormforce~beka*]

6 minutes ago, Metwatch said:

Lol because modern winters in the south are grim, dull, snowless and devoid of any life for the most part. Many look forward to the warmer, brighter days with more sun in spring and summer

Fair point 

[CryoraptorA303]

1 hour ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Why are we STILL talking about summer in winter?!

 

13 minutes ago, Metwatch said:

Lol because modern winters in the south are grim, dull, snowless and devoid of any life for the most part. Many look forward to the warmer, brighter days with more sun in spring and summer

Was about to say, winter barely exists in the UK anymore so there's nothing to talk about.

[In Absence of True Seasons]

16 minutes ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

Was about to say, winter barely exists in the UK anymore so there's nothing to talk about

This is legit it. I find myself thinking about other seasonal weather ATM because it's been basically the same weather for the last 4/5 weeks, that being mild, cloudy and (usually) drizzling. 

Pattern changing as of this weekend for a little bit though, thankfully. 

We really do not need any more rain. Was helping my dad put away the Christmas lights from the front garden today and the ground at the bottom end of the garden is literal sponge. I could bounce on it and water squirted out. A type of green plant (sort of looks like moss but more flowery) has grown en masse in the grass there, which I've never seen in our garden before but it looked familiar - its a plant I've seen on hikes in Scottish Highlands and in Southern Iceland. Lol. Sums it all up. 

Edited January 6 by In Absence of True Seasons

[NEVES SCREAMER]

A steady decrease in temperature during the week and also a drier spell since Tuesday. Although not a fan of chilly weather the next week is welcome. We have had our share of rainfall this past 12 months. I have a feeling 2024 could deliver something more akin to seasonal variation. We will see.

[Wold Topper]

1 hour ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

I suspect the July figure is overinflated and the August figure downplayed a bit by July-centric heatwaves as of late. My guess for 2011-2030 would be v. high 24°C-low 25°C in July, high 24°C in August and mid-22°C in June, and for a bonus, v. high 20°C-low 21°C in September and low-to-mid 20°C in May. London is obviously not so continental as to see July 1.5°C warmer on average than August, inertia still plays a huge role in the climate.

Perhaps its all down to AGW?

[Alderc 2.0]

My partner and her daughter had to travel back to Lithuania for a funeral unfortunately, the funeral is today and they are travelling to Kaunas (by road, all the roads are open despite the temperature and deep snow) and it’s currently -25C. Her daughter is terrified of even poking her head outside. Glad I didn’t go, wayyyyy too cold for me. 

[JoeShmoe]

9 hours ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

 

Was about to say, winter barely exists in the UK anymore so there's nothing to talk about.

I came to that realisation a few years ago, it’s quite cathartic when you do, like this current chase for a cold spell, when you look at it believing it will be watered down to something quite normal and not especially long (if it happens at all) then if anything does happen it’s a nice surprise 

plus I hate the gray and wet and just want sun and warmth now, few more weeks until you can start to feel the warmth of the sun again 

[Alderc 2.0]

Lovely sunrise this morning! 
 

[Summer Sun]

For all the talk of the cold spell, the temperatures the beeb are showing for the week ahead are at best only just below average

[Summer Sun]

Ice warning issued for East Sussex, Greater London, Kent, Surrey and West Sussex early tomorrow with the potential for heavy snow showers giving 1-3 cm, mainly over the north Downs and on grassy surfaces.

 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings?WT.mc_id=Twitter_Weatherdesk_Enquiries#?date=2024-01-08&id=2d0cd9c0-a0c2-4590-bb62-80efcdc6fa2a