Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

[Scott Ingham]

52 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Exeter update today is a bit deflating compared to the last few days. They now think mild and wet is still more favoured for the end of Dec and into the new year. They must have seen a change in the long term outlook over the last 24 hours for them to add that in. Not good. 

It’s the nature of long term forecasts they will update from things like the EC46 and if it can change for mild quickly it can change for cold. They will just update it as it shows so if it’s 55-45% either way they will say a chance of cold but mild slight favourite n vice versa. It’s really not worth worrying about whatsoever at these lead times. 

[Scott Ingham]

20 minutes ago, johncam said:

Hi Scott 

How good are they armt getting it right though. We have seen this before and it came to nout

Of course yeah, no one’s said they are full proof but you’d prefer to have these on your side and when you know that background signals point to exactly this you can have more confidence in the scenario

[booferking]

And just like that Ec control starts ripping the vortex apart week 2 some amount of moaning in here tonight we all knew there was a westerly burst predicted.

[feb1991blizzard]

32 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

just wandering if the UKMO text forecast is a holding forecast as its (in their minds) been put back to outside the 30 day range, that would tie in with that run, 

[bluearmy]

I hadn’t read eXeters update ….

The chance of a colder spell of weather, with hazard such as snow and ice, does increase later in December and into the New Year period.

Those of us who’ve been doing this for longer than we’d care to admit see that as a very positive wording for coldies. They'll always sit on the side of not cold until the evidence is too strong to ignore it - look at the cold spell just ending. 

[blizzard81]

6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I hadn’t read eXeters update ….

The chance of a colder spell of weather, with hazard such as snow and ice, does increase later in December and into the New Year period.

Those of us who’ve been doing this for longer than we’d care to admit see that as a very positive wording for coldies. They'll always sit on the side of not cold until the evidence is too strong to ignore it - look at the cold spell just ending. 

Yes but you've missed out the last bit that I alluded to earlier. This wasn't in the update previously and certainly give one the impression that they are 'less bullish' about it happening at the end of the month and into the new year when compared to the last few updates. I know more than most about how Exeter updates fluctuate and are covered with the C (Caution) word. I just don't understand the slight climb down today. 

[johncam]

29 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Of course yeah, no one’s said they are full proof but you’d prefer to have these on your side and when you know that background signals point to exactly this you can have more confidence in the scenario

Cheers Scott

[blizzard81]

35 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

It’s the nature of long term forecasts they will update from things like the EC46 and if it can change for mild quickly it can change for cold. They will just update it as it shows so if it’s 55-45% either way they will say a chance of cold but mild slight favourite n vice versa. It’s really not worth worrying about whatsoever at these lead times. 

Anyway, all has been solved - It was Darren Bett on duty today. That answers it

[Scott Ingham]

2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Anyway, all has been solved - It was Darren Bett on duty today. That answers it

Oh was it yeah that would make a LOT of sense! Mr mild child himself!

[blizzard81]

Just now, Scott Ingham said:

Oh was it yeah that would make a LOT of sense! Mr mild child himself!

I love that - mild child.... . Classic!

[Dennis]

late dec23 in the game .....?

[blizzard81]

Maybe Exeter factor in the cfs updates...... 

[bluearmy]

13 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Yes but you've missed out the last bit that I alluded to earlier. This wasn't in the update previously and certainly give one the impression that they are 'less bullish' about it happening at the end of the month and into the new year when compared to the last few updates. I know more than most about how Exeter updates fluctuate and are covered with the C (Caution) word. I just don't understand the slight climb down today. 

Previous wording 

It is possible that there will be further colder interludes, but these likely to be short lived at first. Perhaps a greater chance of a longer cold spell later in the period.

i’d  say that today is an upgrade as more specific wording 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

6 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Maybe Exeter factor in the cfs updates...... 

Look poor to me.

 

Bftp

[bluearmy]

Just now, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Look poor to me.

 

Bftp

Yep - the cfs living up to its acronym ….

[booferking]

7 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Maybe Exeter factor in the cfs updates...... 

That's it its all over the cfs said so

[northwestsnow]

That's the best EC 46 so far  

Upgrades now on the menu in model land  

[feb1991blizzard]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Previous wording 

It is possible that there will be further colder interludes, but these likely to be short lived at first. Perhaps a greater chance of a longer cold spell later in the period.

i’d  say that today is an upgrade as more specific wording 

The sentence that followed though, was, more likely mild - that's the bit that's a downgrade, but not worried at all yet, i think its just a timing issue.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Hi gang. Let's not get to down hearted here. The met update was solid and you can't expect them to upgrade to severe wintry conditions in around 3 weeks time..(can we) Imagine the stick they would get...they took some flack over the warnings for snow around the lakes not being thorough enough...and this was a nowcasting situation.

Yes we enter a rut but that does not mean just like last year after a cold spell the Winter Will fizzle out. I heard a poster earlier say I can't see much in the way of cold or snow away from the North now for the rest of the Winter..bloody hell for real? Utterly ridiculous statement to make on the 5th of December..and know more ridiculous than saying on the 5th of June after a 5 day warm spell that that's ya lot for the rest of Summer.

Some interest with some of the ens that could point the way to those sypnotic changes later this month. Ohh and the zonal winds...

In the meantime do have pleasant dreams this evening and not nightmares over the current model output...if your not liking it then simply do not view it for a few days and clear your heads...your mental health will thank you for it in the long run.

[Scott Ingham]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The sentence that followed though, was, more likely mild - that's the bit that's a downgrade, but not worried at all yet, i think its just a timing issue.

It’s not even a timing issue. The key can’t predict with any confidence whatsoever just like everyone else on the planet what’s going to happen 3/4 weeks away. They can only say what’s the most “likely” thing to happen based on background signals ensembles/clusters of a variety of different models. And due to it being so far it this will fluctuate for the better or for the worst several times over. For me it’s an utter waste of time even reading what they think will happen. It’s just for fun

[Mike Poole]

An interesting mix of slants on the longer term today, from the Atlantic returns, winter is over, to some very bullish calls based on teleconnections.

Now that the (predicted) Atlantic return has happened, it is unreasonable to look for much in the next 10 days but then it does definitely get interesting, and that interest is to be found in the extended EPS, ECM 46, seasonal models, background signals.  None of it is in any way nailed on, so I would sound the note of caution, that it is perfectly possible for the WWB to happen, the MJO to head into favourable phases, AAM to rise, the strat vortex to weaken, an SSW to happen, and the UK to still be left in a prevailing southwesterly until the 1st of March!  

Well, it could, but I think we could justifiably say ‘we was robbed’ if it does!

Looking at tonight’s clusters, T192-T240:

The first one looks fairly vortexy!  But, for balance, the second one starts to show the interest, that continues T264+:

Towards day 15 more blocked, even if the first two are still +NAO.  Again, blocking to our NE favoured, 3,4,5 looking good, 6 a snapshot of the Azores Scandi link up at day 15.  Let’s get some of this into the reliable over the next week and take it from there.

ECM 46 take on the MJO:

It’s heading the right way, but could do with more amplification, so this fickle beast is not a done deal yet.  

The 10hPa zonal winds continue to weaken:

I think given the timescales involved, I’m more interested in noticing how the top of the chart (high winds) is being vacated, rather than the number going for the SSW.  This suggests a high probability of a weak strat vortex, and taken in tandem with the expected favourable trop evolution, the disruption of a SSW may be not what we want to happen at the very earliest opportunity because it risks shuffling the deck.  We don’t have any choice, of course!

Edited December 5, 2023 by Mike Poole

[January Snowstorm]

53 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I hadn’t read eXeters update ….

The chance of a colder spell of weather, with hazard such as snow and ice, does increase later in December and into the New Year period.

Those of us who’ve been doing this for longer than we’d care to admit see that as a very positive wording for coldies. They'll always sit on the side of not cold until the evidence is too strong to ignore it - look at the cold 

As you rightly say they rarely call a cold outlook. They did in 2010 and were spot on !!

The experienced on here know that a change in models usually occurs at 168hrs not out in la la land. In fact you would have to question is there any real benefit in looking at +300hr charts...

[Scott Ingham]

10 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

An interesting mix of slants on the longer term today, from the Atlantic returns, winter is over, to some very bullish calls based on teleconnections.

Now that the (predicted) Atlantic return has happened, it is unreasonable to look for much in the next 10 days but then it does definitely get interesting, and that interest is to be found in the extended EPS, ECM 46, seasonal models, background signals.  None of it is in any way nailed on, so I would sound the note of caution, that it is perfectly possible for the WWB to happen, the MJO to head into favourable phases, AAM to rise, the strat vortex to weaken, an SSW to happen, and the UK to still be left in a prevailing southwesterly until the 1st of March!  

Well, it could, but I think we could justifiably say ‘we was robbed’ if it does!

Looking at tonight’s clusters, T192-T240:

The first one looks fairly vortexy!  But, for balance, the second one starts to show the interest, that continues T264+:

Towards day 15 more blocked, even if the first two are still +NAO.  Again, blocking to our NE favoured, 3,4,5 looking good, 6 a snapshot of the Azores Scandi link up at day 15.  Let’s get some of this into the reliable over the next week and take it from there.

ECM 46 take on the MJO:

It’s heading the right way, but could do with more amplification, so this fickle beast is not a done deal yet.  

The 10hPa zonal winds continue to weaken:

I think given the timescales involved, I’m more interested in noticing how the top of the chart (high winds) is being vacated, rather than the number going for the SSW.  This suggests a high probability of a weak strat vortex, and taken in tandem with the expected favourable trop evolution, the disruption of a SSW may not what we want to happen at the very earliest opportunity because it risks shuffling the deck.  We don’t have any choice, of course!

Great summary as always Mike!

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

2 hours ago, bluearmy said:

GULP.......

I can not believe what i have just looked at

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

50 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Previous wording 

It is possible that there will be further colder interludes, but these likely to be short lived at first. Perhaps a greater chance of a longer cold spell later in the period.

i’d  say that today is an upgrade as more specific wording 

I agree entirely, it's fascinating how we all read things according to how we choose to do at the time whether it be mood, emotions, it plays a part, but personally I'd say it's an upgrade comparing one another but best we dont hinge on every word its hard enough in winter in hear as it is