Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

[frosty ground]

im looking for something like this happening next week, it All depends on the shape of the high and developing low but if the stars align places to the north east of the runner could see disruptive snow

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Interesting subtle change to the LP by ESB

 

 

12 z has it much further South and less likely to loop over the AZH?

 

BFTP

Edited December 15, 2023 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Troubleatmill]

26 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

I actually think it's got more potential...less energy spilling out from Greenland..Atlantic heights ridging up a smidge better?

See what you are saying TSNWK, there are lower heights over greenland on the 06z to the 12z. But , there is more energy flowing beneath Greenland on the 12z which may go on to flatten everything out with little fuss

[fromey]

Just now, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Interesting subtle change to the LP by ESB

 

Has it gone missing again?? I noticed this a little while ago, @Catacol I think bought this as well. One run it’s there and the next it not. 

[Kasim Awan]

A good chance for cold again completely offset by that strong Iberian high.

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Interesting subtle change to the LP by ESB

 

looks much flatter in our neck of the woods at day 7 - however take the point on the ESB LP being different.. and not connected to Vortex will it make a difference by day 10

[bluearmy]

could the 12z’s become interesting ???

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

could the 12z’s become interesting ???

Descending trough is back on the menu for Xmas eve on the gem

[TSNWK]

drop baby drop.. will it have the power to force those pesky iberian heights out.

[bluearmy]

Just now, Battleground Snow said:

Descending trough is back on the menu for Xmas eve on the gem

As noted above, the system off the esb doesn’t connect to the trough and this allows the Newfoundland ridge to extend towards the Azores ridge 

gfs will have to decide if the prominent euro ridge it has can be shifted east by the trough 

[ANYWEATHER]

5 hours ago, That ECM said:

Hi Matt, maybe a daft question but hey ho, in your opinion do lows-highs drive the jet stream or the other way round? TIA

The Jet stream helps create Lows and Highs….

[IDO]

Another variation on a theme from the GFS 12z, with a similar outcome for around Christmas of a bride spell of colder uppers. 06z and 12z:

Christmas eve on the 12z:

 

Edited December 15, 2023 by IDO

[Derecho]

9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

could the 12z’s become interesting ???

It's trying to do something a bit different.... but verification is another question. Nice chart for Christmas eve though.

The little mid-Atlantic high and weaker heights to our SW are a positive for sure but are we being lead up the garden path again?

[Jacob]

Maybe JMA was right after all

[Cheshire Freeze]

The issue is people don’t learn.

The absolute carnage in here yesterday. Euro high this, bartlett that. Then today-

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, Cheshire Freeze said:

The issue is people don’t learn.

The absolute carnage in here yesterday. Euro high this, bartlett that. Then today-

That's just a modified Bartlett.

[frosty ground]

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

That's just a modified Bartlett.

Well if it’s modified it isn’t what it was originally therefore not a Bartlett, but it’s not a modified one either.

[Derecho]

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

That's just a modified Bartlett.

I hope that is tongue in cheek as it is a hugely modified Bartlett 

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

That's just a modified Bartlett.

[January Snowstorm]

Lol, it's game on again!!

Deep cold Christmas Eve

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, January Snowstorm said:

Lol, it's game on again!!

Deep cold Christmas Eve

The game was never off.

There is nothing that supports entrenched Euro heights. That’s why I was at pains to tell people to be wary of any modelling of them for persistent periods of time.

[Downburst]

1 hour ago, Catacol said:

From publicly available sources:

ECMWF budget for 2022/23 = £54.7m (member states) + £43.7m (Externals) + £12.9m (Data sales). Total = £111.3m  

Key facts and figures | ECMWF

WWW.ECMWF.INT

---

An overview of who we are can be found in the Who we are section. Below, we offer a breakdown of some of the essential facts relating to our work (as of August 2023).

Bureau of Meterology (Australia) budget for 2022/23 = $345.5m (Govt funding) + $98.8m (Source income). Total = $443.3 Aus.

 

Transparency Portal

WWW.TRANSPARENCY.GOV.AU

---

Transparency portal

 

Now - this doesn't quite tell the whole story because ECMWF is purely focusing on computer modelling while the BOM is an agency with a much broader remit. There is nothing in public data to ascertain what % of their $443.3m is spent on modelling as opposed to other projects they undertake, but still it is a misrepresentation to claim that BOM is a small scale local operation compared to the giant that is ECMWF.

And to deny the relevance of location is to deny the human condition. We are all more concerned with what is at our back door. BOM runs their MJO forecast twice daily. ECM once daily. Evidence, should you need it.

Finally - the evidence on accuracy was carefully laid out in a previous post. I don't think anyone said BOM "will be more accurate" - instead the evidence shows that BOM comes second to ECM. In modelling the recent MJO phase 4 - 5 transition BOM outperformed ECM in forecasts provided at the end of November. 

 

 

 

The ECMWF pools from 35 member countries that have their own funding and met organisations and budgets, do we add those up, including the UK, France and Germany etc, in addition to the funding ringfenced for ECMWF. I poorly expressed it perhaps.  To compare the budgets doesn't consider the function of course and I have no idea of BOM other than the recent amplification. With regards to the MJO I'll stick to  the ECMWF.

[MJB]

A wintry afternoon on Xmas Eve 

[frosty ground]

Like the earlier ICON the low will slide and if your on the north east side you could get significant snow

[Malarky]

3 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

That's just a modified Bartlett.

It’s a Bartlett identifying as a low.