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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

MATTWOLVES 3

By MATTWOLVES 3
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

This thread is for model related chat and discussion. Please head over to the Winter chat thread if your post isn't about the models. If you'd like some localised weather chat, make sure you've joined your regional group. 

Please use the insightful reaction on posts you think should be copied to the model highlights thread.

As ever, please keep to the community guidelines, the guiding principles of which are:
Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly
 

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Posted by lorenzo,

You know what would be cool - if folks could take it back to reviewing the models, looking at the output, posting up some thoughts. Importantly, without adding in a layer of spiky thoughts about what others may or may not be doing, or howthey should or should not be behaving, one liners, agendas, this ramp, that ramp. We have another great period of model watching ahead, excitement is all good. Trolling, sniping, various - that person should be this or that - it's quite boring, and det

Please have a read of this post and bear it in mind when posting.

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
9 minutes ago, Vikos said:

I like this development, could get very interesting in January on…

animyip1.gif

The 6z showed an even stronger warming.

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MATTWOLVES 3
MATTWOLVES 3

Thanks Briciu.. With a sad heart I report to say my Dad lost his fight on Wednesday...he passed away peacefully with closest family around him. I'm gutted. So many things to now sort out and at s

MATTWOLVES 3
MATTWOLVES 3

Hey folks hope your all chasing that next cold snap down.. it will come trust me. As many of you will be aware my dad has been poorly for some time now with parkinsons disease..in the last week h

MATTWOLVES 3
MATTWOLVES 3

Hope the mods don't mind me dropping this message in here. I know its only Wednesday and Xmas is 5 days away but with so much going on right now and it being quite in here...and so many stressful

Posted Images

Purga Accomplished

Purga

Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
Posted

GFS 0Z Christmas day - Mild as toast

GFSOPEU00_252_1-1.thumb.png.13863c2b541a05e9b743235e847fd32d.png GFSOPEU00_252_2.thumb.png.43ebecdd5c636ff9d52c79c8fc796a78.png

Untitled.thumb.jpg.63fc8d61b22fb91c7b6d1fcbcda2d979.jpg

GFS 12Z Christmas day - Cold as a Coot.

GFSOPEU12_228_1.thumb.png.2e087ddb0d86f085bc777f92c0e98d04.png GFSOPEU12_228_2.thumb.png.9881bd4aca9ce58d6fcd3f6f305181b2.png

  Just goes to show all options are open still - even a New Year easterly brewing 😮🤣

GFSOPEU12_384_1.thumb.png.cf57d7af934ec832bb0f02a62d63c595.png

 

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Harsh Climate Accomplished

Harsh Climate

Posted
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
Posted
10 minutes ago, Vikos said:

I like this development, could get very interesting in January on…

animyip1.gif

That's nowhere near a major SSW event like we've seen in the past, with the polar vortex completely split with orange and red across the board.

What's so good about it? 🤔

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

Don't know if these ECM monthly seasonal's have been posted but i do like how this winter may progress🙂

D/J/F...

ecmwfnh-12-1.thumb.png.0da44daa562d352bf70800d4293ea37c.pngecmwfnh-12-2.thumb.png.1b02b3419c2ab01b1d29870945ead385.pngecmwfnh-12-3.thumb.png.dc890778f6d2cc59f8811b0f2459128f.png

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
Just now, Harsh Climate said:

I will be excited when it shows this, not the wet fart it's currently showing..10hPa.thumb.png.156ef2db490399911509218205d52060.png

All major midwinter SSW's start from a warming coming around the Eurasion / siberian sector though, you don't just see red appearing in the core of the vortex, they build in a few days, if the 6z went further it may have shown a technical SSW a week later.

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Harsh Climate Accomplished

Harsh Climate

Posted
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
Posted
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

All major midwinter SSW's start from a warming coming around the Eurasion / siberian sector though, you don't just see red appearing in the core of the vortex, they build in a few days, if the 6z went further it may have shown a technical SSW a week later.

Yeah I know they have to start somewhere, but you see little bits of warming popping up here and there with the polar vortex appearing to weaken before it falls back into place, all the time. 

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Andy8472 Contributor

Andy8472

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

All major midwinter SSW's start from a warming coming around the Eurasion / siberian sector though, you don't just see red appearing in the core of the vortex, they build in a few days, if the 6z went further it may have shown a technical SSW a week later.

This mornings 06

GEFSStratosphereNorthernHemisphere10hPaTemperatureAnomaly.gif.6d6b6b7b5705b993bad4978e8764d90a.gif

GEFSStratosphereNorthernHemisphere10hPaTemperatureAnomControl.gif.f4877e93ee917561a6fbe43d6999344f.gif

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

EC is a perfect match to ukmo 96

the crunch to my eye is at 168 and the ESB not phasing with greenland  / iceland vortex energy as gfs168 behaved...

Edited by TSNWK
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AdrianHull Enthusiast

AdrianHull

Posted
  • Location: Rookhope, North Pennines.
  • Location: Rookhope, North Pennines.
Posted
2 minutes ago, Snowmut said:

More Backing!

 

image.thumb.png.606c70dfa658396e22d07d9263730128.png And these People have put a Man on the Moon! 

One small step for Snowman Kind!⛄🌖

Crikey now we are scrapping the barrel.

I'm sure the super computer the Russians use to model the weather is a commodore Amiga. Great chart none the less!

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Andy8472 Contributor

Andy8472

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

Yeah I know they have to start somewhere, but you see little bits of warming popping up here and there with the polar vortex appearing to weaken before it falls back into place, all the time. 

True but that's the thrill of the chase i guess lol

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Vikos Seasoned

Vikos

Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
Posted
8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

All major midwinter SSW's start from a warming coming around the Eurasion / siberian sector though, you don't just see red appearing in the core of the vortex, they build in a few days, if the 6z went further it may have shown a technical SSW a week later.

It’s a very interesting displacement of the sPV… if the downwelling does its work, in beginning  to mid January things can get chilly 🥶 

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Day 10 Maestro

Day 10

Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
Posted
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC looks much flatter to me 🙄

Yes, the subtle difference towards Newfoundland. Let's see how we go.

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Midlands Ice Age Maestro

Midlands Ice Age

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
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Posted

Just received an EMail from my grandkids to say that whilst I was out this afternoon Xmas shopping , that Santa had replied to their letter about Xmas presents. He said that they had managed to make them all in time.

What really great news!!

However they had a PS at the bottom of their letter for me...

It said apparently that  for all those people who had ordered a Scandinavian high for Xmas that they would be unlucky. However his little elves were working on the problem and that provided that they were not delayed too much with presents being thrown all over the floor that they might be able to arrange a special surprise delivery for the New Year.

Good ol' Santa

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
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Posted

The jma for Christmas day😉

JN240-21.thumb.gif.e076b3c09a713a20c91545db9f3d3a05.gifJN240-7.thumb.gif.2c4f97fcb691a47a2b6ce60cdaf5383a.gif

 

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

the crunch to my eye is at 168 and the ESB not phasing with greenland  / iceland vortex energy as gfs168 behaved...

image.thumb.png.ccd466295a05ea70cc0ae2fd9ab74bc5.pngimage.thumb.png.4ab8315e0edc4ad42c83f159a5d05e68.pngSadly ECM is phasing at 168.... DAM YOU! 😉 see you for the latest iteration of the GFS at 22:00

Edited by TSNWK
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