Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Noooooooooo!  That’ll scupper it!

I think you misunderstood.

I meant tell her she won't see me for the next week

Alternatively tell her if she wants me ill be on meteociel 

Edited December 15, 2023 by northwestsnow

[snowbob]

4 minutes ago, WYorksWeather said:

Yep, think got talking slightly at cross purposes. I thought there was a suggestion that there could be a direct effect on surface weather, rather than just what we predict. Models would of course be affected if there were major disruptions e.g. to GPS and/or power outages.

Yeah I think we did. My point was that model predictions such as the infamous cold chase that we all crave this time of year could well be skewed because of it. Especially the last two days. So yeah the prediction and not the actual outcome. Which causes alot of toys to be thrown around in here.

Edited December 15, 2023 by snowbob

[WYorksWeather]

1 minute ago, snowbob said:

Yeah I think we did. My point was that model predictions such as the infamous cold chase that we all crave this time of year could well be skewed because of it. Especially the last two days. So yeah the prediction and not the actual outcome. Which causes alot of toys to be thrown around in here.

From some reading I've just done, the big impact would be from an Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejection (CME). That impact is still uncertain though, and would likely take a day or two if it does happen.

[snowbob]

3 minutes ago, WYorksWeather said:

From some reading I've just done, the big impact would be from an Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejection (CME). That impact is still uncertain though, and would likely take a day or two if it does happen.

Yeah same I just googled the same thing. Just goes to show how complicated our atmosphere actually can be at times. And I was just getting to grips with all the shortwave dramas. So much science we just don’t understand right now and to think there are still impacts that we still have not discovered 

amazing really

Edited December 15, 2023 by snowbob

[suxer]

44 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Weeks 5 and 6 look superb.

Haha

[Mike Poole]

4 minutes ago, WYorksWeather said:

From some reading I've just done, the big impact would be from an Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejection (CME). That impact is still uncertain though, and would likely take a day or two if it does happen.

I’m sure these things have been blamed in the past for scuppering cold spells, the actual weather, not just the model output!  There was one case a few years back, someone will know when it was?

[WYorksWeather]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I’m sure these things have been blamed in the past for scuppering cold spells, the actual weather, not just the model output!  There was one case a few years back, someone will know when it was?

I imagine that is probably just wishful thinking. There is essentially no reliable evidence I've found of any such effect.

[snowbob]

2 minutes ago, WYorksWeather said:

I imagine that is probably just wishful thinking. There is essentially no reliable evidence I've found of any such effect.

Agree. 
from what I have read it only affects the predictions but not the actual weather on the ground. So more of a red herring couple of model related days then,normal service resumed.

Edited December 15, 2023 by snowbob

[WYorksWeather]

3 minutes ago, snowbob said:

Agree. 
from what I have read it only affects the predictions but not the actual weather on the ground. So more of a red herring couple of model related days then,normal service resumed.

Yep, I think the lagged impacts would come along if we get a CME hit. But that's far from guaranteed, and even if it does hit it may not be a massive one sufficient to really disrupt things.

To take things back to the models, the ECM has just enough uncertainty to keep the south in the game for Christmas, but barely. I'll go with Halifax today for a West Yorkshire chart - not much better than the London one to be fair. Good luck to everyone in Scotland though, the Aberdeen chart looks more hopeful.

  

No reason to change my expectation from yesterday really. Best chance of anything cold will be further north. Can't completely rule out a more widespread cold spell, but it's definitely a minority option within the ensembles, and quite a small minority the further south you go.

[stewfox]

1 hour ago, mbrothers said:

Haha it’s always the same folk that are ‘shocked’ , ‘gutted’ ,   ‘Bewildered’ by the models yet they are the first to start the next chase . 

Why not it's an output model thread  ?

Yes most prefer cold/ snow in winter. 

The fact we have this excitement in the 1st month of winter is good. 

 

[northwestsnow]

Last one tonight

12z EC120

18Z ICON 120

 

GFS 12Z had the low next to Portugal helping prop up the Atlantic high and now ICON has joined it.

EC doesn't.. 

I think that's positive ..

[Kasim Awan]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Last one tonight

12z EC120

18Z ICON 120

 

GFS 12Z had the low next to Portugal helping prop up the Atlantic high and now ICON has joined it.

EC doesn't.. 

I think that's positive ..

Yes good ICON more energy South and stronger low south of Greenland which will add to the subsequent northerly.

[ANYWEATHER]

1 hour ago, snowbob said:

I’m sure this is model related but I have just read that the sun has just erupted the biggest solar flare in years. To the point that the met office are monitoring a possible geometric storm on the 17th of December. Surely that wil be having an impact on the models right now. I believe I read a while a go that solar flares can scupper and confuse models to the point they fluctuate from mild to cold outcomes quite frequently.

Hopefully not like the Carrington Event back in the late 1800s ! Took out all the Victorian infrastructure.  Today ,it would take out just about everything the modern technical world  we depend on........

[minus10]

The 12 z Anomalies and the latest Cpc 6 to 10 day which just about includes the 25th are..if my understanding is correct.. showing a stiff west north westerly on Christmas day with northern areas seeing some wintery weather in particular however further south couldnt be ruled out ...exposed north western high ground favoured ..

...of note is the height anomaly over Canada/ North America and also the Iberian height anomaly which is still plaguing the output....

 

[WYorksWeather]

17 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Hopefully not like the Carrington Event back in the late 1800s ! Took out all the Victorian infrastructure.  Today ,it would take out just about everything the modern technical world  we depend on........

The Met seems to think it'll be a bit of a storm in a teacup. 

Space Weather

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

---

Latest space weather forecasts, including solar activity, flares and storms. Aurora forecasts for the Northern and Southern Hemisphere.

 

Quote

Space Weather Forecast Headline: High activity with further Moderate flares likely, and chance of Strong flares (R1-R3). G1 Minor Storms possible from Coronal Mass ejection (CME) arrivals Days 1-2 (16-17 Dec). Initial assessment of Strong flare CME gives a chance of G1-G2 early Day 3 (17 Dec).  

For reference, a moderate storm is considered to be of no/negligible public concern.

[Ladyofthestorm]

2 hours ago, Ladyofthestorm said:

I would definitely take a read of Matt's post. Looks like cyclongenesis could bring a few surprises next week. 

 

Winter 1983/ 84 an El Nino year I think , very strong positive NAO around Christmas time . It was a very green stormy Christmas. 

 

New years day into 2nd bomb cyclongenesis  brought us a  very strong NLy and blizzards . Low pressure sunk right down from north all over the country. 

Not a SSW,  beasterly, reversal of winds on sight. 

I'm sure you guys have access to the synoptics . Check it out... 2.1.84  to 5.1.84  you'll see what I mean 

 

Found it....

1984 was a very zonal active winter and it brought very wintry stuff at times. 

Like Matt said this set up we cannot dismiss . Its going to spring surprises over the weekend. 

 

Below is December 1983 followed by January 1984 

This is today's 

 

 

[snowsummer]

25 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Hopefully not like the Carrington Event back in the late 1800s ! Took out all the Victorian infrastructure.  Today ,it would take out just about everything the modern technical world  we depend on........

The Carrington  event was a G5 storm. I think this time we're  talking G2  maximum. Im curious  though as to whether these events do affect our weather,same as sunspot numbers. Depending on what you read depends on the answer.! 

[Ali1977]

Looking good here at T156 

[TSNWK]

Nice big gap between Greenland and Canada.. esb low not phasing. Low near Portugal… that’s in theory should make this an interesting 18z in mo..let’s see…

[January Snowstorm]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Looking good here at T156 

It does look good sofar 

[Ali1977]

Just now, TSNWK said:

Nice big gap between Greenland and Canada.. esb low not phasing. Low near Portugal… that’s in theory should make this an interesting 18z in mo..let’s see…

Agreed, and some seriously cold air south of Greenland , could land perfectly for Xmas day again. We aren’t deep FI now. 

[TSNWK]

Coming in quicker this run…

[frosty ground]

Just now, TSNWK said:

Coming in quicker this run…

That’s going to be some cold front sweeping through the U.K. 

[Ali1977]

Rain to snow to freeze - looking good ️️

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

Rain to snow to freeze - looking good ️️

Will be modified a bit by arrival.