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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

MATTWOLVES 3

By MATTWOLVES 3
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

This thread is for model related chat and discussion. Please head over to the Winter chat thread if your post isn't about the models. If you'd like some localised weather chat, make sure you've joined your regional group. 

Please use the insightful reaction on posts you think should be copied to the model highlights thread.

As ever, please keep to the community guidelines, the guiding principles of which are:
Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly
 

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Posted by lorenzo,

You know what would be cool - if folks could take it back to reviewing the models, looking at the output, posting up some thoughts. Importantly, without adding in a layer of spiky thoughts about what others may or may not be doing, or howthey should or should not be behaving, one liners, agendas, this ramp, that ramp. We have another great period of model watching ahead, excitement is all good. Trolling, sniping, various - that person should be this or that - it's quite boring, and det

Please have a read of this post and bear it in mind when posting.

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summer blizzard Maestro

summer blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
Posted
4 minutes ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

We can’t say that.

We can’t say that because at the moment we’re in unusual territory where the strat vortex is being well displaced from it’s usual territory. On top of that we’ve got weather models that can’t even resolve the MJO properly.

With the strat so weak, literally one bit of amplification in the right place at the right time could lock us into cold.

This isn’t the usual winter scenario where we’ve got a strong strat coupled to the trop with endless strong westerlies above…

image.png.2b4bcd2f493b501a3093e2541fb62002.thumb.png.5a8d629923dbc6fadc85e929f2e9ca0c.png

As the second chart shows even if we end up with a SSW (we don't on this but it would just be a darker blue), it will still be January when it's reached the troposphere. 

Thus we are as you say dependent on tropical convection but since it looks like we will miss the boat on on the late phases. Current convection suggests we might persist somewhat into 2-3 but the Indian Ocean is normally not our friend.

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CoventryWeather Seasoned

CoventryWeather

Posted
  • Location: Coventry, West Mids
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms, heat, sunshine, hail. Basically Seasonal.
  • Location: Coventry, West Mids
Posted
1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

I thought the 18z Icon was a considerable downgrade by 120hrs. Not a good trend this evening. 

Perhaps so. I've looked at the wrong charts!! Yeah looks flatter. Not good

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
Just now, January Snowstorm said:

I think we have established by now this evenings ukmo run was a good one! May not be right but was good

MOGREPS looked good although I've that many graphs on screen I could easily have got mixed up.

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CoventryWeather Seasoned

CoventryWeather

Posted
  • Location: Coventry, West Mids
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms, heat, sunshine, hail. Basically Seasonal.
  • Location: Coventry, West Mids
Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

GFS18Z is improving now.

Improving? We go back to square 1. Ridge over Europe and warmth advection to us. 

image.png

Edited by CoventryWeather
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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Should be ok briefly in Scotland by 192hours.

image.thumb.png.3222d6b14b5cae526dca860510070572.png

im pricing up the suncream 😂

Actually that chart is horrible,Euroland mild,Greenland cold 

Edited by northwestsnow
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Sweatyman Seasoned

Sweatyman

Posted
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Hot n cold
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
Posted
5 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

This could be an embarrassing moment for ukmo and mogreps and a depressing Monday morning set of runs. 

00z depressing? When aren't theyy?

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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted
Just now, January Snowstorm said:

It looks like the run is sober tonight and the spectators are all drunk! It's so bad meteociel pulled it 😆 

I never trust the gfs pub run but the fact that icon has also jumped ship is a downer. This is also relatively near term so more believable. A redeeming moment for the ecm maybe. 

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Sweatyman Seasoned

Sweatyman

Posted
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Hot n cold
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
Posted
Just now, Don said:

Is this winter yet another one going down the tubes after showing some initial promise?!

🙄

Yep. Can just tell. just my opinion and feeling

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Metwatch Maestro

Metwatch

Posted
  • Location: Coventry, 96m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow in winter, thunderstorms, warmth, sun any time!
  • Location: Coventry, 96m asl
Posted (edited)

I'm not really sure what the GFS 18z has drank, but the Iberian heights and overall flatness of the pattern look a bit overkill to me. Perhaps that upper level cut-off low milling around between Spain and the Canary Islands showing to inflate heights over Iberia, and that is causing some mayhem between the models. Some notable differences regarding it compared to say the UKMO and ECM. Interesting to see why, any thoughts @Nick F?

GFSOPEU18_156_1.thumb.png.ab9cd66e5cf31bcf788870a9b77fa45f.pngGFSOPEU18_132_21.thumb.png.a6eadce3c3687dd3193809b30e24c604.png

Edited by Metwatch
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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted
Just now, Don said:

Is this winter yet another one going down the tubes after showing some initial promise?!

🙄

Eeeerrrmm..... Yep! 🙄. At least its Christmas lol 🎄🎄👍

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted
Just now, Kasim Awan said:

Those Iberian heights show no mercey.

18_183_mslp500.png

0 forcing on them. 

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