Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

[Howie]

What a disaster 

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, Snowman. said:

0 forcing on them. 

Please elaborate?

[cheshire snow]

Midday 25th December Temperatures 

8-13c North to South

 

[weathercold]

When you consider how disorganised the pv is and how many ‘background signals’ we have in our favour it’s quite staggering (and equally sobering and frustrating) we have not had one truly epic nwp run from any of the main models this winter. We’ve had a few cold ish runs for sure but nothing shouting wintry nirvana, not once. Will Jan change anything

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, cheshire snow said:

Midday 25th December Temperatures 

8-13c North to South

 

Not all is lost. That is cold enough for sleet over the tops of the Cairngorms.

[blizzard81]

Just now, cheshire snow said:

Midday 25th December Temperatures 

8-13c North to South

 

Warm beers all round

[Jake March-Jones]

Dear me! Cheer up everyone!

[Don]

Just now, blizzard81 said:

Eeeerrrmm..... Yep! . At least its Christmas lol

We've been here so many times before!! 

May have to look for another hobby in the New Year lol!

[blizzard81]

So.... What's your money on? Mogreps and ukmo or Gfs pub run?

[January Snowstorm]

Watching the models reminds me of gambling!! Days full of highs and lows, but the lows always being definitive!! It really isn't good for your health guys all jokes aside!!

The reality is that in the year 2023 the science can still not predict the weather beyond 5 days. We could do that 40 years ago, so zero progress!

[Sweatyman]

Just now, blizzard81 said:

So.... What's your money on? Mogreps and ukmo or Gfs pub run?

pub run unfortunately!  

[Purga]

A Barbeque Christmas just like old times in Oz

 

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

So.... What's your money on? Mogreps and ukmo or Gfs pub run?

Halfway house is most sensible which was shown on ECM 12Z. So at this stage I wouldn't bet on a particularly mild or cold outcome, probably 6040 in favour of GFS given recent years.

Edited December 17, 2023 by Kasim Awan

[Don]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

Warm beers all round

About as appetising as a stinking cold! 

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

Halfway house is most sensible which was shown on ECM 12Z. I wouldn't bet on a particularly mild or cold outcome, probably 6040 in favour of GFS given recent years.

I agree. 

[Purga]

At least somebody will be happy this Christmas

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, Don said:

About as appetising as a stinking cold! 

Just got over one of those lol. 

[Kasim Awan]

GEFS coming out now on Meteociel.

[TSNWK]

4 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

So.... What's your money on? Mogreps and ukmo or Gfs pub 0

 

12z ukm120. Makes this safe. IMHO

[Don]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

Just got over one of those lol. 

At least you should be good for Christmas itself now! 

[BartyHater]

All change yet again on the 18 GFS. I posted earlier that the 00 ECM showed the potential for a 14-15c max on Xmas Day in E England, this run wouldn’t be far behind that, but at least England and Wales should be mostly dry.

Tonight a cold Christmas still is isn’t completely out the question, but unless the models coalesce around a tangible evolution in next 24-36hrs, I think it will be by Tue morning.

[Scandinavian High.]

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

Those Iberian heights show no mercey.

Will they push northeast into January setup an easterly I’m hoping anyway 

[Don]

Just now, Scandinavian High. said:

Will they push northeast into January setup an easterly I’m hoping anyway 

Always hope but I've personally got my doubts!

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, Scandinavian High. said:

Will they push northeast into January setup an easterly I’m hoping anyway 

I'm not sure pigs fly.

[blizzard81]

That eastern seaboard low is doing its worst now at the last minute for UK cold. Been here so many times.