Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

[Catacol]

6 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Hmmmmm..

Don't like the sound of that...

Has to be flushed out before the impacts of the reversal can be felt. Standard stuff - hence the lagged nature of SSW impacts. How lagged? There lies the conundrum. I notice on X today that EC chances of an SSW are now at 88%.

Before we get there though we have chances of tropospheric led cold. Double whammy!

Edited December 25, 2023 by Catacol

[Mike Poole]

ECM clusters catching on, first T192-T240:

As I mentioned earlier, the ECM op showing the fault line - and you can see it here in cluster 1.

T264+:

Clusters 1,3 and 4 slice the vortex with a ridge through Greenland.  This is the signal folks.

 

[That ECM]

I’m so looking forward to seeing this unfold. Fully accepting that nothing is done. Big scale then micro scale. It doesn’t get much better for our hobby.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Hey folks we have some massive dips on the zonal winds.. a few going off the rictor scale.

[Mike Poole]

3 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Has to be flushed out before the impacts of the reversal can be felt. Standard stuff - hence the lagged nature of SSW impacts. How lagged? There lies the conundrum. I notice on X today that EC chances of an SSW are now at 88%.

Before we get there though we have chances of tropospheric led cold. Double whammy!

But there’s very little that needs to be flushed out!  For this we have the Canadian warming to thank, leaving weakened winds in the stratosphere.  There is the increased westerlies just prior to the warming event to be accounted for, but not much more.  

There is the potential here for a very quick trop response, in my opinion, and the GFS 12z was an example of that (technically this one reached 1m/s at 10hPa/60N but we’ll let that go!):

 

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

Hey folks we have some massive dips on the zonal winds.. a few going off the rictor scale.

I reckon we’ll get a much better idea about how deep to expect the fall, when we’ve gone over that peak in just 5 days time.

[bluearmy]

the ec46 looks like a cold and wintry jan post week 1 

[Scott Ingham]

8 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

But there’s very little that needs to be flushed out!  For this we have the Canadian warming to thank, leaving weakened winds in the stratosphere.  There is the increased westerlies just prior to the warming event to be accounted for, but not much more.  

There is the potential here for a very quick trop response, in my opinion, and the GFS 12z was an example of that (technically this one reached 1m/s at 10hPa/60N but we’ll let that go!):

 

This is the big takeaway from me. That I think this will be a rapid trop response on top of rising AAM the holy grail due to the Canadian warming 

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

the ec46 looks like a cold and wintry jan post week 1 

The 46 on side too - wow, feels like Christmas has come early!

[blizzard81]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

the ec46 looks like a cold and wintry jan post week 1 

It certainly does mate. 

[Uncertainty]

2 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

This is the big takeaway from me. That I think this will be a rapid trop response on top of rising AAM the holy grail due to the Canadian warming 

The seasonals have been telling us this all along Scott. If they’re right, it’s a huge coup for long range forecasting:

That’s the JFM Cansips, from May!
 

 

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, Uncertainty said:

The seasonals have been telling us this all along Scott. If they’re right, it’s a huge coup for long range forecasting:

That’s the JFM Cansips, from May!
 

 

If it pulls that forecast off that is sensational. Especially when so much of the forecast would have relied on a SSW! Only 62/63 had a similar Canadian warming than what we saw in November and we know what level of longevity that bought us. Zonal winds were very weak all winter from that point so I think some work on the importance of these will need to be done if we see a severe January and February 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Perhaps the hints of events that are now about to begin with the strat and other forcing momentums is beginning to show up in the longer range of ens now. Just think about where we have been these last few weeks,then compare to an evolving NH profile that shows signs of completely shuffling the dice in the days and weeks ahead.

Will it be a double 1 a double 3 or a double 6...hedge your bets,I know where my money will be going

[booferking]

Merry Christmas everyone things are really starting to lookup.

[Allseasons-Si]

I know it's Christmas but can we please stick to the model output discussion,...thank you

Edited December 25, 2023 by Allseasons-Si
typo

[phil nw.]

6 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Will be back on the first duff run from the pack...

Im looking forward to settling down with a nice whisky on Christmas night as 18z rolls.

I have already settled down with a couple of drams so forgive me if I don't go into detail tonight. 

I see that earlier post from Lorenzo sums things up perfectly.

Everything is coming together  for a complete change over to a -ve AO/NAO pattern in January.

This has been trending in the week 2 ensembles for a few days now and today they continue to strengthen.

Anyway I hope Christmas has been good for everyone and my thoughts are with matt3wolves and others who have had sadness or poor health at this time.Best wishes for a brighter outlook in the New Year.

 

[tight isobar]

Even the very early stages of the 18z are looking to set up a typical QTR.. and in turn vortex hammering!! A Christmas classic beer run setting up here !!

[tight isobar]

W-seaboard mass ridge reaction to the layer impacts will eye catching now- going forward!!… the ops will likely take on eye watering Synoptics here on in.. and we’ll look for more solid response/ reflections in the ENS-supporting. Things starting to ramp up now .

[bluearmy]

Gfs finds the Arctic high in a similar way to the other models 

[lorenzo]

Old school charts u say..

Only one route for this filament

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Ecm eps looking promising...something like 40 of 50 members going for a reversal for the 60-90N region.

So we are pushing 80% perhaps a tad more for some kind of major strat disruption. Feeling in my water this could be a big one and I think the Canadian warming though only minor as set the strat up for a larger fall.

Fo the first time in years we could be looking at potentially wintry conditions developing in January! 

[Allseasons-Si]

Looking at the 12z ens from both the gefs and EPS it does look(at this moment) that there will be a cooling off as we head into week 2 of Jan that togeather with a tanking AO/NAO as @phil nw. pointed out previously would put breaks on the zonal onslaught

week 2 surface pressure anomaly

and even out to week 4 there is still a strong height anomaly to our NW

things are starting to gain traction of a cold mid Jan> pattern

BTW great post earlier @lorenzo

Edited December 25, 2023 by Allseasons-Si
typo/added text

[lorenzo]

Damn

[fromey]

5 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

Damn

I’m assuming it’s a good Dam?

[Ali1977]

Day 10 and things about to kick into gear on the op run