Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

[cheshire snow]

That is a fantastic from the GFS 

a new chase about to start?

[damianslaw]

 cheshire snow Will be good to inject some activity in the mod thread, its been echoing the very flat feeling that comes at this time of year!

[Had Worse]

 cheshire snow or a new garden path to explore.

what we need is a situation that doesn't look that great then upgrades.

The general direction of travel is great charts 10 days out that downgrade as it gets closer. 

[Rush2019]

 cheshire snow it's looking very interesting at this stage, but it's a little too far out for me at the moment.  Todays deep dive alluded to a cold spell but went no further with details.  I'll certainly be watching with hope

[Had Worse]

 Rush2019 that makes a change. Has Hope come to visit?

Just  had a quick look on the MOD thread and the optimism meter  seems to be springing to life.

Edited January 30 by Had Worse

[damianslaw]

Get January out of the way and naturally optimism will resume. The way the mini cold spell ended on the 20th has seemed to stunt all positivity coming at a time of year we need it most.

 

[Dark Horse]

 Had Worse Yeah I'm not getting excited at all. Ensembles show hardly any perturbations getting below the -10c line. Why I say -10 is because it often gives us more wiggle room instead of everything on a knife edge all the time, as you probably know we can usually get guaranteed snow with -6 to -8c uppers depending on wind direction, a bit warmer from an easterly due to lower dews from the continent helping, but we need some more clusters of extreme perturbations below -10 to really give us a good chance and up to now we only have about one. And that's 14th February. 2 bloody weeks away. I know there's time for something epic look at late Feb 2018 and the 17th March that year as well with the "mini beast" but that was a special time for us and not likely to be repeated relatively close together in this warming climate. But you never know.

 

 

[Rush2019]

 Had Worse you will find Hope in the MOD thread too.

[Had Worse]

 Rush2019 and Hell

[Rush2019]

The cold front moving through the region tomorrow could be a bit lively with sleet, hail and possible T and L.  Some strong gusts too for the more northern parts of the region, up to 60mph, will be a bit windy.

[damianslaw]

Its been a very mixed January here with a bit of everything, very mild at times, very stormy at times, cold and calm, also cold and snowy - sadly very briefly!, very wet at times.

Not one I'll remember fondly though, could have been much better, but imploded on 20th and started off far too mild as well.

The wait for a classic cold January goes on.. 14 years and counting..

[itsnowjoke]

 Day 10  Day 10  must like @WillinGlossopfine food

[weatherobsuk]

MWIS Peak District forecast is looking a bit concerning, I didn't think this next storm on the way was going to be of much interest??

 

Severe conditions over the mountains - hurricane-force upland winds. Showers with hail follow in northwest. Severe upland gales strengthen for England & Wales, heavy rain arriving from north afternoon.

How windy? (On the summits)

Southwesterly 40 to 60mph, strengthening into afternoon, gusts 70mph up to dusk. Marked increase with height, powerful gusts near edges and downslope to east.

Edited January 31 by toggerob

[iand61]

Wow it looks like we have a bit of frost outside, anyone would think it was winter

 

[Chris.R]

This evening doesn't look anything of note away from mountains. A bit of heavy rain and a bit breezy. Can't see anything convective or wintery.

Edited January 31 by Chris.R

[Weather-history]

July 2023-Jan 2024 approx. 1008mm for the region (141% of the 1991-2020 av.)

July 2000-Jan 2001 was 934.8mm

Jul 1954-Jan 1955 was 996.8mm

 

 

[A Face like Thunder]

Quite a sharp frost developing last night under clear skies and, although there were still traces of it earlier this morning, it has disappeared now with cloud and a fairly brisk wind developing.

[Rush2019]

Not bad at all here currently 5.4°C.  Was 2°C first thing, no evidence of frost here.  Wind and rain expected here around 4pm.

[Ghost of winters past]

Heltnin - Wind gust report 155mph....is this a record?

Edited January 31 by Ghost of winters past

[Scuba steve]

Weather deteriorating rapidly not very nice out 

[Had Worse]

 Ghost of winters past Is that today?

If it is, that would be about the same as the Stalybridge Tornado.

[WillinGlossop]

 Ghost of winters past

 

[Had Worse]

 WillinGlossop Well ! Blow me !

[WillinGlossop]

 Had Worse

driving to football at 530pm with kick off being 730pm… when squall/torrential rain is meant to hit, driving at rush hour and trains on strike going to be great journey could be like our Madrid game journey last year… took us 2 & 1/2 hours to do 15 miles

[itsnowjoke]

Gone cold out