Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

[Ian Ballinger]

14 hours ago, Marcus_surfer said:

It's funny how people in the MAD thread are comparing this upcoming cold spell to 1987, 2010, 2018 etc. No cold spell is the same. I never understood getting excited about charts 200+hours out either ,learnt my lesson on doing that a very long time ago.

They never learn, it's the same every winter 

[Wetterfrosch]

On 01/01/2024 at 12:08, Crepuscular Ray said:

My 2023 rainfall total ended up as 2672 mm. 

Wow, that's some total which i have never reached even here at the edge of Eryri over the last 20 years. 2093 mm was my highest in 2009. Feel sorry for all the poor souls who have been so badly affected by the floods but relieved to have got away lightly (so far!). Looking forward to a quieter period now! - bring on the cold! The one effect that recent storms have had here is that they have made my telephone cable rub against some roof tiles so that I finally lost my internet connection before New Year's day and which has only just been repaired again, hurray!! Have a good new year all!

[Loadsa2000]

 

Latest met office forecast

UK long range weather forecast

Wednesday 10 Jan - Friday 19 Jan

High pressure will remain in charge through the first part of this period, whilst sitting to the north or northwest of the UK. This means a fair amount of dry weather for the majority of the country, with variable cloud and some sunny spells. Still the chance of a few showers, perhaps wintry at first, feeding into some eastern coasts. Still on the cold side too, though perhaps less so than the preceding couple of days, with reduced wind chill in the south. Into the following week, as the high is forecast to build further to the west, there is an increasing likelihood of northerly winds developing, introducing colder air once more. With this comes the risk of snow showers, especially around windward coasts along with overnight frost and ice.

Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Fri 5 Jan 2024

Saturday 20 Jan - Saturday 3 Feb

Through this period, compared to normal, there is an increased chance of colder conditions along with the associated impacts from low temperatures, ice and snow. Whilst colder weather is more likely to dominate, there is also the possibility of frontal systems at least encroaching from the west or southwest, bringing the potential for more widespread snow to parts of the UK as they butt up against cold air in place. These would also increase the likelihood of wetter conditions, at least in the south, at least compared to the preceding week or two.

Start waxing your sledges

Edited January 5 by Loadsa2000

[Loadsa2000]

1 hour ago, Wetterfrosch said:

Wow, that's some total which i have never reached even here at the edge of Eryri over the last 20 years. 2093 mm was my highest in 2009. Feel sorry for all the poor souls who have been so badly affected by the floods but relieved to have got away lightly (so far!). Looking forward to a quieter period now! - bring on the cold! The one effect that recent storms have had here is that they have made my telephone cable rub against some roof tiles so that I finally lost my internet connection before New Year's day and which has only just been repaired again, hurray!! Have a good new year all!

Caerphilly Rainfall total 2023  1783.4  mm

[keithlucky]

19 hours ago, keithlucky said:

Brisk easterly wind turning colder and colder bitter winds fetching snow showers across Wales on Monday.Showers possible any time radar watching for the rest of next week. Winds switch to northerly. around the14 th of January with heavy snow moving down from North.    THIS is not a normal UK shot cold spell .Another stratospheric warming is happening towards the end of month winds from the east then the north  dominating until end of month severe cold spell on it way. 

Possible upgrade on precipation for Monday. Just goes to show snow forecasting is nowcasting let see what develops on radar Monday night.

[snefnug]

A little bit of more snow like bits in the sleet now.  

[Wetterfrosch]

3 hours ago, Loadsa2000 said:

Caerphilly Rainfall total 2023  1783.4  mm

My own reading came in at 1792.1 mm her in Dyffryn Nantlle, 112 percent of my 20 year average.

[keithlucky]

16 hours ago, keithlucky said:

Possible upgrade on precipation for Monday. Just goes to show snow forecasting is nowcasting let see what develops on radar Monday night.

From nick on model thread showing a small disturbance increasing the snow possibilities Monday night

[keithlucky]

11 minutes ago, keithlucky said:

From nick on model thread showing a small disturbance increasing the snow possibilities Monday night

East Wales look favored atm but let's see what happens. 

[snefnug]

Sporadic peeks into Madmod during the last couple of days.  I assume the mood swings from agony to ecstasy  depending on which run it is.  Currently, I think, they are edging towards, if not actually in the spare Oom wardrobe that leads to Narnia….

Edited January 6 by snefnug

[Ian Ballinger]

2 hours ago, snefnug said:

Sporadic peeks into Madmod during the last couple of days.  I assume the mood swings from agony to ecstasy  depending on which run it is.  Currently, I think, they are edging towards, if not actually in the spare Oom wardrobe that leads to Narnia….

They live 10 days away those lot 

[snefnug]

Just now, Ian Ballinger said:

They live 10 days away those lot 

Ahhh, explains a lot….

[Loadsa2000]

Thursday 11 Jan - Saturday 20 Jan

High pressure will remain in charge at first, whilst sitting to the north or northwest of the UK. Many areas will often be dry if rather cloudy, however occasional light rain or drizzle is likely, especially on some east-facing hills. The best of any sunshine in sheltered western and perhaps southern areas and still rather chilly for most. Towards mid-month, the high will likely decline or reorientate itself to the west or northwest of the UK, potentially allowing colder air with snow showers to filter south across the UK and/or for frontal systems to approach from the southwest. The latter scenario would also bring the potential for significant snow and also perhaps some heavy rain to parts of the south. Either way a more unsettled outlook towards mid-month looks probable.

Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Sat 6 Jan 2024

Sunday 21 Jan - Sunday 4 Feb

Through this period, compared to normal, there is an increased chance of colder conditions along with the associated impacts from low temperatures, ice and snow. Whilst colder weather is more likely to dominate, there is also the possibility of further frontal systems at least encroaching from the west or southwest, bringing the potential for more widespread snow to parts of the UK as they butt up against any cold air in place. These would also increase the likelihood of wetter conditions redeveloping, at least in the south, where occasional milder interludes are also most likely.

Updated: 15:00 (UTC) on Sat 6 Jan 2024

[snefnug]

Oh good grief!  Quick!   Get handcarts for hell, cos they need them in Madmod. 

[bradymk]

Quietly confident we’ll see some snow flurries in east / SE Wales tomorrow evening. Certainly no blizzard but be nice to see something falling at least. Await the 12z runs…

[keithlucky]

17 hours ago, Loadsa2000 said:

Thursday 11 Jan - Saturday 20 Jan

High pressure will remain in charge at first, whilst sitting to the north or northwest of the UK. Many areas will often be dry if rather cloudy, however occasional light rain or drizzle is likely, especially on some east-facing hills. The best of any sunshine in sheltered western and perhaps southern areas and still rather chilly for most. Towards mid-month, the high will likely decline or reorientate itself to the west or northwest of the UK, potentially allowing colder air with snow showers to filter south across the UK and/or for frontal systems to approach from the southwest. The latter scenario would also bring the potential for significant snow and also perhaps some heavy rain to parts of the south. Either way a more unsettled outlook towards mid-month looks probable.

Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Sat 6 Jan 2024

Sunday 21 Jan - Sunday 4 Feb

Through this period, compared to normal, there is an increased chance of colder conditions along with the associated impacts from low temperatures, ice and snow. Whilst colder weather is more likely to dominate, there is also the possibility of further frontal systems at least encroaching from the west or southwest, bringing the potential for more widespread snow to parts of the UK as they butt up against any cold air in place. These would also increase the likelihood of wetter conditions redeveloping, at least in the south, where occasional milder interludes are also most likely.

Updated: 15:00 (UTC) on Sat 6 Jan 2024

As colder northerly winds digs south becomes interesting next weekend. 

[bradymk]

Still looking good to see some flurries tomorrow evening in East / SE Wales in particular. Associated with the movement west of the sub -10 850’s. Each model slightly different with some having more intensity than others but I’d say flurries will probably be more widespread than some of these charts. Let’s see

[keithlucky]

Be nice to see a dusting!Question is can the showers get past our mountains east Wales still looks best location.

Edited January 7 by keithlucky

[bradymk]

51 minutes ago, keithlucky said:

Be nice to see a dusting!Question is can the showers get past our mountains east Wales still looks best location.

Given its E / ENE rather than NE, I think southern areas of Wales won’t be too affected by that on this occasion with the direction that the precip is supposed to be moving. The Bristol Channel may actually help pep some of it up near the coast as the main area of the cold pool moves west (about 7-11pm  tomorrow). A wait and see I think…

ECM hasn’t been too keen anyway so far so interesting to see what that has.

[keithlucky]

1 hour ago, bradymk said:

Given its E / ENE rather than NE, I think southern areas of Wales won’t be too affected by that on this occasion with the direction that the precip is supposed to be moving. The Bristol Channel may actually help pep some of it up near the coast as the main area of the cold pool moves west (about 7-11pm  tomorrow). A wait and see I think…

ECM hasn’t been too keen anyway so far so interesting to see what that has.

True I have seen Cardiff Newport have showers in this wind direction nothing in Swansea.

[bradymk]

57 minutes ago, keithlucky said:

True I have seen Cardiff Newport have showers in this wind direction nothing in Swansea.

Yes true, fingers crossed as UKMO has a good area of light snow moving west including over Swansea at about 11pm

[keithlucky]

On 21/12/2023 at 14:25, keithlucky said:

Strong stratospheric warming underway should see down dwelling leading to zonal wind reversal in the new year.

Nothing changed despite the hysteria caused by man made model output. Down dwelling is happening it has split and moved the polar votex towards Greenland  ,so enjoy the freeze to come.

[keithlucky]

From Kilcardy on model thread ,I know some don't go on model Snow showers breaking out Across Wales. Radar watching required.

[snefnug]

Somewhat surprised by mood in madmod thread which seems to have gone Maidstone gif centric.  They need a proper cup of tea and a lie down.

Couldn’t find  post (cos I’d lost will to live) that @keithlucky linked to.  Question then to @keithlucky, when is this flurry event due for please?

Edited January 7 by snefnug

[keithlucky]

Because of a drop of tempretures in the afternoon showers could break out afternoon /evening ,then need to radar watch light snow showers anywhere south east Wales favoured  spot.