Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

[Loadsa2000]

 Merry Christmas to all my local posters and lurkers

[Marcus_surfer]

Merry Christmas to you all. Cheers. Have a great day

[Loadsa2000]

Could be snowy

[snefnug]

Storm Gerrit. I hope we don’t .

[CLH]

Quite the difference on the netweather spot forecast (I know) for my location tomorrow as far as rain is concerned. Could be on southern edge though. Met has a quite different day

[Wetterfrosch]

A day in store to keep the doors locked and the curtains drawn. This suggests 24 hour rainfall totals up to 100 mm over higher parts of Eryri, river levels may rise significantly. Keep safe!!!

[andy989]

Very windy here half way up Elidir Fawr. Times like this I’m thankful for 4 foot thick stone walls. 

Edited December 27, 2023 by andy989

[keithlucky]

Big stratospheric warming underway, should have more persific details by end of week Down dwelling underway.

[snefnug]

Wind and rain ramping up now from a fairly quiet and soggy night.  Cat wanted to go out, changed mind, used the (thoughtfully placed by me) emergency storm cat-tray.  

[Crepuscular Ray]

50 mm of rain already since midnight in this neck of the woods. 

[keithlucky]

5 hours ago, keithlucky said:

Big stratospheric warming underway, should have more persific details by end of week Down dwelling underway.

Long way to go but met office starting to agree with strat warming.

[Pembroke Dangler]

10 minutes ago, keithlucky said:

Long way to go but met office starting to agree with strat warming.

Yes they do seem to slowly jumping of the fence so to speak and going with colder blocked scenarios, I love the bit about the block being towards the north west which would point to more of a Northerly outbreak which is good for here as long as the uppers are cold enough, could see Lake effect snow coming in off the Irish Sea in bands. 

[keithlucky]

46 minutes ago, Pembroke Dangler said:

Yes they do seem to slowly jumping of the fence so to speak and going with colder blocked scenarios, I love the bit about the block being towards the north west which would point to more of a Northerly outbreak which is good for here as long as the uppers are cold enough, could see Lake effect snow coming in off the Irish Sea in bands. 

Yes  unusual to see rain to snow event in the forecast, As you said they must be seeing pressure building to the North.

[Marcus_surfer]

A few flashes of lightning now and again

[Ian Ballinger]

Very windy here now, roaring around this old cottage.

[snefnug]

3 hours ago, Ian Ballinger said:

Very windy here now, roaring around this old cottage.

Jeems!  A bit blinking roaring round here too!

,

[Wetterfrosch]

The forecasts certainly did not exaggerate - my rain gauge collected 36 mm by the time the frontal rain had passed early afternoon, RAF Mona on Anglesey has this evening recorded an 88 mph gust and three hours ago I have been treated to quite a spectacular thunderstorm for the time of year which went on for some time. In Germany the twelve days of Christmas are also known as the Rauhnaechte (lit. rough nights) - well, the last 24 hours would certainly qualify for that title!!!

[CLH]

We escaped most of the rain in the far south, but, oh that wind. Quite a few seeming squall lines moved through during the night too, one was insane.

 

[Loadsa2000]

32.6mm of rain here yesterday and 85% humidity

343mm  off rain this month much more will have to start building my ark

[Penfoel]

gonna get interesting.

Rain yesterday 38.2mm

Gusts today already reaching 72mph !! 

Ark built Loadsa2000

Cows/horses/dogs/chickens/turkeys( yes ... Dinner and Sprout are a happy couple) donkeys are under cover. Have handed out snorkeling equipment to next doors sheep ( currently looking like teabags bless them) 

Welcome to Strumble Head. Walkers and storm chasers please don't block the remaining dry passing places please! ( I'm not exaggerating ) 

 

 

[Wetterfrosch]

With hindsight and in the light of the damage done at Stalybridge (and other damages we just haven't heard of yet!) an amber warning would have been justified imo. Despite the 39 mm of rain of this event I have only just crossed the 200 mm threshold for December, thanks to the continuation of the jet stream's southerly track which most days caused the bulk of the rain to fall further south from here. Annually I'm now heading towards the 1800 mm mark which I might just make before the year is out. In the mean time there's room for a short respite today and tomorrow with just a few showers and winds easing before the next system makes landfall on Saturday. Have a good day all, and take it easy!!

[snefnug]

17 minutes ago, Wetterfrosch said:

With hindsight and in the light of the damage done at Stalybridge (and other damages we just haven't heard of yet!) an amber warning would have been justified imo. Despite the 39 mm of rain of this event I have only just crossed the 200 mm threshold for December, thanks to the continuation of the jet stream's southerly track which most days caused the bulk of the rain to fall further south from here. Annually I'm now heading towards the 1800 mm mark which I might just make before the year is out. In the mean time there's room for a short respite today and tomorrow with just a few showers and winds easing before the next system makes landfall on Saturday. Have a good day all, and take it easy!!

Tree down over main valley  road am and once  again, numerous points of surface flooding.  Seems to be petering out rain wise, but  still squally winds.  Power down in the hamlets further up the valley.  Fortunately we have power down here.

 

[Crepuscular Ray]

As Wetterfrosch says, the jet stream has dumped the rain here, not there. My running total for the month is 318 mm, and I’ll top 100 mm for the week sometime in the next few hours. 
 

Most of the garden seems to have survived intact, although the watering-can has disappeared. This side of the village was only without electricity for an hour, but the other side took almost four to get power restored. 

[Cwmbran Eira]

6 hours ago, Loadsa2000 said:

32.6mm of rain here yesterday and 85% humidity

343mm  off rain this month much more will have to start building my ark

We really need a prolonged dryer period now. This year has been very wet and dull, a shock to the system after the 2022 scorcher.  I won’t be sorry to see the end of this year weather wise.

fingers crossed for something a lot more interesting to start 2024

[Loadsa2000]

Latest from MO

Tuesday 2 Jan - Thursday 11 Jan

It now looks likely that this period will start with below average temperatures across northern areas, with some hard night time frosts. In the south temperatures are expected to be nearer average with cloud and some rainfall at times, especially in the far south. During this time there is a good chance that many central areas may remain relatively fine for a number of days. Thereafter, more settled and calmer conditions are expected to gradually develop quite widely, increasing the risk of frost and fog. This would also lead to day on day net cooling eventually bringing below average temperatures for many, with an increased threat of winter hazards, including ice/snow if any precipitation runs into the cold air in place over land.

Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Thu 28 Dec 2023