Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

[CLH]

Noteable that the 'mild breakdown' is, checks notes, pretty similar to this weekend's temps, albeit not dry.

[DeepSnow]

Well a few days ago it was forecast to be 6C today  its currently 1.8C with aforecast high of 4C. I do think the models are not handling this well and there will be some surprises as the week goes on.

[Missdolly]

4 hours ago, Cymro said:

Keep away from the model thread rhis morning if you want to retain your sanity. Never have I seen it so bad! Quite pathetic and childish in fact! 

We will see plenty of snow showers in Wales this week, Im expecting a few surprises everywhere with the nature of this northerly flow. Don't be fooled even in Eastern Wales, Northerlies often produce larger snow totals than easterlies when you get troughs and occluded fronts appearing within 12 hour time frames. 

Being on these foruns for nearly 18 years, the overreacting in the mod thread is nothing new but the standard of discussion this year is atrocious. The cold spell won't break down on Friday, it's not a toppler and the models will be very volatile between now and then. Expect drastic changes at short time frames that can extend the cold substantially! 

And to remind us all we've had well over a week now of below average temperatures, only yesterday did we reach our highest temperature of the week at 4°c. Ditches, ground and pond frozen solid since last Saturday. Any snow should readily settle next week. 

Gan bwyll a daliwch ati! Mae'r eira ar ddod! 

Absolutely! I've seen rain forecast when we've got a good bit of snow instead , we have a different system over these hills. 

Fingers crossed for a flurry or two! 

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

Looks like the winds will turn to the NW/NNW for a time with cold upper air running over the Irish sea, normally in these cases showers train across parts of NW/W/SW Wales but can push further inland, the ICON model has been picking up on these the last few days ive noticed, one to keep an eye on. 

The low pressure system on Wednesday looks unlikely to impact Wales now, going further south. That being said this mornings GFS does have it clipping the S/SE corner of the UK...

 

[bradymk]

1 hour ago, SnowStorm(Jamie) said:

Looks like the winds will turn to the NW/NNW for a time with cold upper air running over the Irish sea, normally in these cases showers train across parts of NW/W/SW Wales but can push further inland, the ICON model has been picking up on these the last few days ive noticed, one to keep an eye on. 

The low pressure system on Wednesday looks unlikely to impact Wales now, going further south. That being said this mornings GFS does have it clipping the S/SE corner of the UK...

 

Latest ICON seems to decrease any shower activity Monday Tuesday frustratingly compared to previous runs. However it also brings Wednesdays low further north. Some swings still to come with that maybe.

lets see what the others show now 

[keithlucky]

First signs of snow showers tommorow night.

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

42 minutes ago, bradymk said:

Latest ICON seems to decrease any shower activity Monday Tuesday frustratingly compared to previous runs. However it also brings Wednesdays low further north. Some swings still to come with that maybe.

lets see what the others show now 

Yep looks like the latest GFS has that low a bit further north again also.

Perhaps the models are underestimating the shower activity over the Irish sea for us Monday/Tuesday, i remember years ago this use to be the case with some of the models but i imagine things have changed since then. 

Let's see if the ECM also brings that low a bit further north. 

[Pembroke Dangler]

11 minutes ago, keithlucky said:

First signs of snow showers tommorow night.

Yes I think we might see a flurry or two tomorrow night, just need the temps to drop before it arrives as they could be sleet rather than snow if they come to early Monday into Tuesday though could be good  

[keithlucky]

Never seen this general snow moving back North ,never seen correction North before @Bonkers

Edited January 13 by keithlucky

[keithlucky]

8 minutes ago, keithlucky said:

Never seen this general snow moving back North ,never seen correction North before @Bonkers

No sign of this of fax,but LP moves south front from the North .

[Harveyslugger]

In the past models have always underestimated Pembrokeshire danglers by alot so.looking quite good for me

[Marcus_surfer]

I gotta say it's looking quite poor guys

[Ian Ballinger]

sorry how do I get rid of these spoiler tags 

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[freeze for all]

13 minutes ago, Marcus_surfer said:

I gotta say it's looking quite poor guys

I can 1 million percent guarantee, if it was rain that was forecast, it would definitely hit us

[Cwmbran Eira]

1 hour ago, freeze for all said:

I can 1 million percent guarantee, if it was rain that was forecast, it would definitely hit us

. You’re spot on there.

it does looks like yet another uneventful chilly spell. 
I’m seriously enjoying the dry weather so not too disappointed this time. 
Glad I’ve learnt my lesson and haven’t told family and friends to prepare for snowmageddon again

 

[Ian Ballinger]

I've been making the most of the dry weather, sorting the Garden out at last

[Jayfromcardiff]

Anyone else watching that front over Northern France? Won't come to anything but it's edging North.

[Marcus_surfer]

1 hour ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Anyone else watching that front over Northern France? Won't come to anything but it's edging North.

Won't make it far probably fizzle out

[keithlucky]

9 minutes ago, Marcus_surfer said:

Won't make it far probably fizzle out

Edge of seat situation showers pushing south. Front slowly pushing North 50 miles to go .

[keithlucky]

32 minutes ago, keithlucky said:

Edge of seat situation showers pushing south. Front slowly pushing North 50 miles to go .

Well this is getting silly slightly further North.

[acorb]

10 hours ago, DeepSnow said:

Well a few days ago it was forecast to be 6C today  its currently 1.8C with aforecast high of 4C. I do think the models are not handling this well and there will be some surprises as the week goes on.

This whole week has been chilly, just checked the output for the last week on our weather station - High of 4.2c, low of - 2.3, an average of 1.5c. Hardly mild! 

I still think the next week could throw up a surprise or 2..

[Pembroke Dangler]

4 minutes ago, keithlucky said:

Well this is getting silly slightly further North.

I think this is the mean so will be some runs which will bring the front further north and some further south and hopefully we will be stuck in the middle with snow

[Harsh Climate]

Fax chart showing a Pembrokeshire dangler tonight

Edited January 14 by Harsh Climate

[Jayfromcardiff]

System has tracked further North based off the latest GFS output, however all other models have it further South so we'll have to see what happens in further runs later. Bit negative but I'm not expecting it to get as far North as South Wales.

[CLH]

 

yeah. Not expecting it but….you never know. South of the M4 may play a blinder