Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

[bradymk]

2 minutes ago, Harveyslugger said:

5cm for me

Yes potentially, fingers crossed! Will a depend where the heaviest showers align I imagine.

[snefnug]

Clear blue sky here, with lovely sunshine,  it by Jings  it’s a cold crisp day out there, colder in feel than the last few days.  Little if any snow left, and what is there is packed down on track surfaces and icy, so be fun on the various mutt walks today…

[acorb]

Lightest of sprinklings overnight, much colder today. 

Forecast for Sunday and start of next week looks very nasty. Met Office Deep Dive gave a good explanation on YouTube yesterday as to its origins. 

Edit: as I posted, the first warnings for wind have been issued, must be very concerning to raise this far out! 

Edited January 17 by acorb
Met Office warning issued

[danthetan]

Looks like the convergence line is setting up in the Irish Sea temps and dewpoints look good I would expect a dusting in pembrokeshire tonight as the band of showers moves onshore. Just depends how intensive they become for snow depths. I would imagine the preselis will be covered. 

[Harveyslugger]

13 minutes ago, danthetan said:

Looks like the convergence line is setting up in the Irish Sea temps and dewpoints look good I would expect a dusting in pembrokeshire tonight as the band of showers moves onshore. Just depends how intensive they become for snow depths. I would imagine the preselis will be covered. 

I live in the preselis 180m above sea level but they go up to 535m above sea level max.

[marclt]

23 minutes ago, danthetan said:

Looks like the convergence line is setting up in the Irish Sea temps and dewpoints look good I would expect a dusting in pembrokeshire tonight as the band of showers moves onshore. Just depends how intensive they become for snow depths. I would imagine the preselis will be covered. 

There was a light dusting over the Cwmcerwyn this morning.   Feeling colder today for a change!

[Harveyslugger]

3 minutes ago, marclt said:

There was a light dusting over the Cwmcerwyn this morning.   Feeling colder today for a change!

Yes I saw that too

[danthetan]

23 minutes ago, Harveyslugger said:

I live in the preselis 180m above sea level but they go up to 535m above sea level max.

Yes I've walked up there many times living in pembrokeshire myself and usually the only place that gets any snow. Your location looks very good for tonight. 

[danthetan]

15 minutes ago, marclt said:

There was a light dusting over the Cwmcerwyn this morning.   Feeling colder today for a change!

Yes I'm recording temps of 3 and dewpoint -0.9 so the air is alot dryer today which usually means it will stick and not be a slushy mess. 

The met office fax charts show the convergence line through pembrokeshire with the 528 line well south. 

[Harveyslugger]

14 minutes ago, danthetan said:

Yes I'm recording temps of 3 and dewpoint -0.9 so the air is alot dryer today which usually means it will stick and not be a slushy mess. 

The met office fax charts show the convergence line through pembrokeshire with the 528 line well south. 

Here it is currently 1.9c with a dewpoint of -3.5c.

Never ever seen this low of a dewpoint here in the day.tonight it will be like -5 just before the snow.it will settle so easily 

[danthetan]

3 minutes ago, Harveyslugger said:

Here it is currently 1.9c with a dewpoint of -3.5c.

Never ever seen this low of a dewpoint here in the day.tonight it will be like -5 just before the snow.it will settle so easily 

The precipitation is looking intense out at sea if it maintains that should be a good covering. 

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

The west and south west look fairly well placed for some snow showers tonight some of which will be heavy as shown on the latest ICON:

AROME also showing some intense showers:

I'll be a bit to far east here in Swansea, maybe Llanelli will cop the odd snow shower. 

 

 

[Marcus_surfer]

Feels alot colder this evening under those clear skies

[keithlucky]

38 minutes ago, SnowStorm(Jamie) said:

The west and south west look fairly well placed for some snow showers tonight some of which will be heavy as shown on the latest ICON:

AROME also showing some intense showers:

I'll be a bit to far east here in Swansea, maybe Llanelli will cop the odd snow shower. 

 

 

A slight change in wind direction at 4am May move more inland  allow more of Wales to hopefully see a dusting. 

Edited January 17 by keithlucky

[keithlucky]

48 minutes ago, keithlucky said:

A slight change in wind direction at 4am May move more inland  allow more of Wales to hopefully see a dusting. 

Showers start moving east before that according to 3 hrs radar.

[Harveyslugger]

6 minutes ago, keithlucky said:

Showers start moving east before that according to 3 hrs radar.

I'm confused that radar can't be right.its not a NW wind and no other radar or model shows those showers come from the NW at 7pm

[keithlucky]

12 minutes ago, Harveyslugger said:

I'm confused that radar can't be right.its not a NW wind and no other radar or model shows those showers come from the NW at 7pm

All we can do is radar watch.At least there showers around so we need luck!

[keithlucky]

59 minutes ago, keithlucky said:

All we can do is radar watch.At least there showers around so we need luck!

Streamer forming over Irish Sea can it make progress eastwards?

Edited January 17 by keithlucky

[Penfoel]

Just now, keithlucky said:

Streamer forming over Irish Sea can it make progress eastwards?

Temp 3 degrees dp -3 ...

NE wind 16kph

Fine snow blowing about. 

Glad we prepared ahead....thank you guys ! 

[bradymk]

Using UKV specifically here for the charts but pretty good agreement across the board.

Latest 15z UKV still looking good for snow showers in Pembrokeshire tonight and also for North Wales. These heavy at times, main accumulations being above 150 metres (5cm here), but UKV showing 2cm to lower levels too where showers are longer lasting.

Current Pembrokeshire temps:

0c Milford Haven

-2c Haverfordwest

-3c Whitechurch 

So temps certainly on side tonight with low dew points. Hard to get low lying snow in Pembrokeshire but a good chance here

TONIGHT

 

Estimated Snow depth tomorrow morning:

 

Elsewhere snow chances:

The chance of showers for areas further east in the Met Office warning area as we go into Thursday morning as the upper wind becomes more NW’ly again. Compared to Monday, we have lower pressure and heights so some of these could be further inland than the beginning of the week. One to watch. 

Later Thursday, heavy snow showers in North Wales again, as well a mix of sleet and snow showers for Western Wales. These further inland again so a chance other areas further east may catch one or two showers before they dissipate.

TOMORROW NIGHT

 

Not seeing anything for SE Wales but you never know, maybe one or two showers will push through later tomorrow.

A heavy snow shower NW Anglesey right now  

[Marcus_surfer]

Definitely potential later for snow showers in the North and west of Wales. Meanwhile, Northern Scotland getting battered with heavy snow showers.

[danthetan]

46 minutes ago, bradymk said:

Using UKV specifically here for the charts but pretty good agreement across the board.

Latest 15z UKV still looking good for snow showers in Pembrokeshire tonight and also for North Wales. These heavy at times, main accumulations being above 150 metres (5cm here), but UKV showing 2cm to lower levels too where showers are longer lasting.

Current Pembrokeshire temps:

0c Milford Haven

-2c Haverfordwest

-3c Whitechurch 

So temps certainly on side tonight with low dew points. Hard to get low lying snow in Pembrokeshire but a good chance here

TONIGHT

 

Estimated Snow depth tomorrow morning:

 

Elsewhere snow chances:

The chance of showers for areas further east in the Met Office warning area as we go into Thursday morning as the upper wind becomes more NW’ly again. Compared to Monday, we have lower pressure and heights so some of these could be further inland than the beginning of the week. One to watch. 

Later Thursday, heavy snow showers in North Wales again, as well a mix of sleet and snow showers for Western Wales. These further inland again so a chance other areas further east may catch one or two showers before they dissipate.

TOMORROW NIGHT

 

Not seeing anything for SE Wales but you never know, maybe one or two showers will push through later tomorrow.

A heavy snow shower NW Anglesey right now  

I have to agree that's why I piped up earlier best chance for Pembrokeshire it a while for snow. I would be looking for a bit more organisation with the showers for any meaningful accumulations. Plenty cold enough this is my weather station in Haverfordwest 

[bradymk]

11 minutes ago, danthetan said:

I have to agree that's why I piped up earlier best chance for Pembrokeshire it a while for snow. I would be looking for a bit more organisation with the showers for any meaningful accumulations. Plenty cold enough this is my weather station in Haverfordwest 

Agree about organisation. They look good at the moment on the radar, you can tell the airmass is more unstable than the beginning of the week.

All the models seem to agree about a larger heavier blob over the county at about 8/9am, would be interesting if so. After a few hours of showers before hand. Shower locations always hit and miss mind, even down to the last minute.

Wishing I was back west  

I’d say at the moment the showers look slightly earlier than the 1am on UKV

Edited January 17 by bradymk

[Harveyslugger]

Dewpoint-6 never seen that here even in the beast from the east or even ever

[Marcus_surfer]

Its saying -6C in the car