SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on

[Eagle Eye]

21 minutes ago, Gowon said:

I heard there's a possibility of tornados in the South tonight. 

Yes, there's large LLS but due to it being a squall most vorticity will be crosswise. So we will need to be on the look out for any changes in direction of the squall for a misocyclone for tornadic potential. Just something to keep an eye out for. 

[MAF]

28 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

I don't do that and I don't think most people in the model thread do that. It's just very interesting to look at the model trends as the data becomes more reliable and given teleconnection signals looking good and multiple days of means being similar, you can make a good 'guess' on the future because the signal is good. Yes some people take 1 run by its own but there's still some science in one run. 

just to add to my previous reply. i have seen the computer at the met off because i was one of the accreditors who was involved in its installation. strange as it seems, the world is not run by computers. we run them. and i mean no offence in any of my posts/replies. maths is maths, physics is physics, they will never change. all that will change is how their (the computers) output will be interpreted.   

[Gowon]

3 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Yes, there's large LLS but due to it being a squall most vorticity will be crosswise. So we will need to be on the look out for any changes in direction of the squall for a misocyclone for tornadic potential. Just something to keep an eye out for. 

What time is it supposed to take place?

I saw what happened in Manchester and it was bad

[Eagle Eye]

5 minutes ago, Gowon said:

What time is it supposed to take place?

I saw what happened in Manchester and it was bad

Supposed to come through maybe around midnight to 2am ish, the tornado chance is lower than when the Manchester tornado happened though. The lining up of shear and timings aren't as well lined up as then with the shear more ahead of the squall really. 

[MAF]

53 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

LLS

???

[Eagle Eye]

1 minute ago, MAF said:

???

Low-level shear/low-layer shear (they mean the same thing). 0-1km I think it's generally calculated in. 

[MAF]

every day is a school day

hence why i posted a few days back that an abbreviation needs a fuller explanation the first time it is used and then after if it is used over again it is understood what it means

[3cats]

Getting pretty gusty here with us in Redhill and had to rescue a plant pot. Kitten has been a little crazy all evening, I blame the wind. 

[Atmogenic]

been windy here since the sun went down which makes it relaxing to me going to sleep 

[Vortex3929]

Turned pretty windy indeed in the last few hours. Liking it though! 

[snowrye]

I'm watching motd, will probably stay up until that squall line comes through

[snowrye]

Very similar set up to the QLCS they get in America 

[ChillyJuju]

Has got quite windy here, haven't been out but is howling through the open window and gusts are reaching 46mph. Not very strong but does sound good

Squall is crawling across the country,from West to East, been keeping an eye on the radar for a few hours and still not reached here. Expect it between 0:00 and 02:00 ish.

[Jimmyh]

Anyone under that squall line looks pretty potent 

[tomp456]

8 minutes ago, Jimmyh said:

Anyone under that squall line looks pretty potent 

Been and gone within 10 mins. Biblical rain, small hail, gusty wind, and two flashes of lightning/loud claps of thunder.

Shame the squall wasn't a bit wider so it lasted a little longer!

Edited December 31, 2023 by tomp456

[andymcpool]

Impressive, squall action in Balham atm!

[ChillyJuju]

Just been through it and come out the other side. 

Have know better Squalls to be honest. Rain spike for a minute and a few gusty howling moments and that was it. Radar looks far more impressive

[Dave Clarke]

Some strong gusts and the occasional large drop of rain here in Beckton, E London

[Jimmyh]

It's going through now next to the bridge and it's biblical 

[Nikki W]

I'm in Basildon waiting for it 

 

 

[ChillyJuju]

We had a mini squall here which just passed over, sounded like it's Big Brother who went through first approx 2 hours ago lol 

[Tn9]

Looks like someone just dropped atom bomb ....

[all weather]

So much rain. Must be one of our wettest years. Always say things balance themselves out. Summer dry weather and wet winter weather. Rain is always around the corner for our Island sitting slap bang in the path of the normal jet stream.

[Froze were the Days]

How typical that the last day of the year here experiences some heavy rainfall...sun out now but for how long?

Happy New Year everybody and lets how for something a bit better meteorological wise than 2023 (it wouldn't be difficult).

[Donna3397]

Short and sharp hail storm here in Rye, the biggest hail I’ve seen for a long time.  Nasty thunderstorm just went over with it. The hail scared her.