SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on

[Whether Idle]

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon-eu.php?ech=81&mode=46&map=510

Icon Hi Res is suggesting some mainly light snow cover Tuesday morning in the SE. Sweet spot appears to be SE part of M25 (chaos alert!)

But...

The forecast from the 0z GEFS for the upper air temperatures varies from -12 to -4 (8 degrees)! for Monday evening:

 

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=350&y=157

so the above chart is probably at the more extreme end of the range. Caution required. 

Edited January 6 by Whether Idle
Added upper air temp spread.

[Eagle Eye]

Some - 10-13°C 850's for us and some snow showers in the area, potentially a non-marginal situation as long as we can get the snow showers then for Monday. Definitely something to keep your eye on. 

[lottiekent]

37 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Some - 10-13°C 850's for us and some snow showers in the area, potentially a non-marginal situation as long as we can get the snow showers then for Monday. Definitely something to keep your eye on. 

Having had no snow at all from any of the last two winter’s offerings, I will be keeping a very close eye on it all! 

[Whether Idle]

50 minutes ago, lottiekent said:

Having had no snow at all from any of the last two winter’s offerings, I will be keeping a very close eye on it all! 

With the colder air coinciding with an ENE wind our SE Kent chances are reduced whilst all points N and W towards London and down towards IoW are increased.

[Summer tyre]

Monday 15th looks our best bet, but the patterns are swirling around like a magician's cloak! My best wishes to Tom - treatment for prostate cancer is amazing these days, especially the modern targeted radiotherapy.

[Met4Cast]

Morning all!

Figured I'd venture across from the Mod thread now that we're getting closer to seeing some snowflakes in our region. Monday continues to be of interest with the potential for a weak Thames/Kent streamer to develop. The most aggressive modelling on this only suggests 2-3cm at most so I don't think we'll be seeing much, if any for most. 

But.. worth keeping an eye on! AROME will be of interest when it comes into range in the next day or so.

[Sparky68]

Little bit moist out!

[Arch Stanton]

21 hours ago, MAF said:

just seen this on beeb site 

seems it might get cold soon..... thought that's what winter did 

Indeed, all of these nonsensical warnings for what in effect are ‘normal to be expected weather conditions’ cause warning fatigue, diluting its message as they become ten-a-penny so to speak.

 

This is one for the ‘Things that tick you off thread’

Edited January 6 by Arch Stanton

[Kent Blizzard]

26 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Morning all!

. Monday continues to be of interest with the potential for a weak Thames/Kent streamer to develop. The most aggressive modelling on this only suggests 2-3cm at most so I don't think we'll be seeing much, if any for most. 

But.. worth keeping an eye on! AROME will be of interest when it comes into range in the next day or so.

Afternoon Met4Cast

I'm also keeping a close eye on it, I've a landscaping project starting in Lordswood. Even 2-3cm would most likely rule out it starting, That depth can also cause chaos on the roads round that way off the.main routes.

[Methuselah]

Sleet showers are now coming in off the North Sea. I'm getting ready for a fun few days! 

[Tn9]

48 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Morning all!

Figured I'd venture across from the Mod thread now that we're getting closer to seeing some snowflakes in our region. Monday continues to be of interest with the potential for a weak Thames/Kent streamer to develop. The most aggressive modelling on this only suggests 2-3cm at most so I don't think we'll be seeing much, if any for most. 

But.. worth keeping an eye on! AROME will be of interest when it comes into range in the next day or so.

So really you saying its  a lick and  promise ,as in wouldnt put your bottom dollar on it ,you see year in year out we and as strood man yourself see on a good year  a week of snow a winter  ..thats lucky too,sometimes nothing ,nothing at all ,few flakes ,on hills ,we will have a little wager ..if it does ill buy you  a couple pints up  the robin hood   blue bell hill ,bring sledge then you can slide back to strood ,like you say its not marginal but minimal.,when its maximum its marginal ,which equals cold rain

[Tom Montalbano]

18 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Morning all!

Figured I'd venture across from the Mod thread now that we're getting closer to seeing some snowflakes in our region. Monday continues to be of interest with the potential for a weak Thames/Kent streamer to develop. The most aggressive modelling on this only suggests 2-3cm at most so I don't think we'll be seeing much, if any for most. 

But.. worth keeping an eye on! AROME will be of interest when it comes into range in the next day or so.

A very good Morning, all.

Hope I find yourselves and your Families, well. 

As M4C states above, Monday is providing a little interest.

Below, is the 06z ICON take on the situation at 15z on Monday Afternoon:

850hPa [Upper Air] temps of around -10c/-11c, with S.S,T.'s [Sea Surface Temps] in the Southern North Sea of around +8, will give a temperature differential approaching 20c. The Model breaks out evidence of a slight NE > SW Streamer, with a steering Wind of between NE and ENE. 

 /  / 

I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a weak Wintry Streamer develop.

Whether any Snow that fell would be actually heavy enough to settle, is open to question.

I remember commenting on the S.E. Forum a few Years ago, Once the 850 temps are favourable + steering flow, just sit back and watch the interaction between those 850 temps and those S.S.T.'s, provide some interest.

I'm not sure of the exact Year but back then conditions looked very favourable for a potent N.E. Snow Streamer to form and give some heavy and at times prolonged Snow Showers from Mid-Kent > East Sussex, only for some overhang of cloud from a Warm Front over N.E. France/S. North Sea, scuppered any Convection from firing,

Having skimmed through quite a few of the Posts on the Model Thread aster the 00z Model Runs, it seems like the ECM Model, was the villain of the peace!!

Monday's very small window of opportunity, in my opinion, is just that. Don't think it's quite time to get the Sledges out, just yet but interesting nevertheless.   

Before I end this post, I would also like to thank the following S.E. Members -  Vortex3929, Lottiekent and Chilly Juju, along with those Members I mentioned yesterday Evening, for their kind and thoughtful words, regarding my recent diagnosis of Prostate Cancer. Thank you all. 

Regards,

Tom Q. 

[Mark wheeler]

Blimey even the Ecm has the thames streamer. Fingers crossed  

 

[Shunter]

Seems to be some light precipitation turning Sleety across the North Downs right now according to  net weather radar.

Meopham, Harvel, Bluebell Hill area

[Summer tyre]

On a different topic entirely, is there a cloud cover and SLP chart anywhere? I sometimes have trouble working out (sheer newbieness, I'm sure) where and how dense cloud cover is as I scan the pressure charts. Any suggestions, please?

[Challock Weather]

Still dry up here but temp down to 4oc. The parameters for a streamer on Monday are looking more favorable #letitsnow

[Vortex3929]

15 minutes ago, Snow tyre said:

On a different topic entirely, is there a cloud cover and SLP chart anywhere? I sometimes have trouble working out (sheer newbieness, I'm sure) where and how dense cloud cover is as I scan the pressure charts. Any suggestions, please?

weather model gfs 0.25 degree model - united kingdom - surface wind [base + 3] | weatheronline

WWW.WEATHERONLINE.CO.UK

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Weather for UK, Ireland and the world. Sailing, Marine Weather, Weather maps, radar, satellite, climate, historic weather data, information about meteorology, reports, weather warning.

model dependent but usually shows cloud cover and at levels (low, medium, high). Slp included on all I think too but not as an overlap if you get my meaning 

 

Edited January 6 by Vortex3929

[alexisj9]

21 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

I'm afraid there are alerts for everything weather wise now days...what a mamby pamby lot the media are! Wouldn't bat an eye lid over this back in the 80's!

Just read your post Tom...all the best as well, here's to a rapid recovery!

Actually there always has been it just your getting the warnings now, probably a part of joining a weather community, you learn the links join whatever apps and get all the warnings available 

[Gowon]

Snow showers Monday afternoon until 1 am Tuesday morning on the latest ICON. Looks like a streamer setting up straight along the Thames in the evening

 

[alexisj9]

3 hours ago, Methuselah said:

Sleet showers are now coming in off the North Sea. I'm getting ready for a fun few days! 

It's much colder this afternoon than it was this morning. Cold is coming.

[Kent Blizzard]

57 minutes ago, Shunter said:

Seems to be some light precipitation turning Sleety across the North Downs right now according to  net weather radar.

Meopham, Harvel, Bluebell Hill area

Nothing falling from the Sky a few.minutes, I looked at the radar and thought the same, cloud building and as Alexis says it's got noticeably cooler.

[Mark wheeler]

Thames streamer again showing on the 12z GFS

[Coopsy]

It's looking good for the SE. Looking at various outputs it seems like the wind is going to be NE at first which will help east/mid/north Kent and parts of EA but then it shifts more to NEE/E which moves precip from those areas to western kent/London region including possibly essex/Suffolk coastal areas.

Met Office don't seem too bothered by it but a lot of us have years of locals experience in this set up and have had snow when none was forecast.

Maybe they are expecting light showers and not much settling but still would have expected a low impact/low likelihood yellow. They're the experts though so what do I know lol. 

Fun times. Good luck to everyone in the SE.  

Edited January 6 by Coopsy
Edited as just seen uppers. Shouldn't be marginal

[Vortex3929]

Meto showing snow symbols now for Monday. That's ruined it

[Mark wheeler]

11 minutes ago, Coopsy said:

It's looking good for the SE. Looking at various outputs it seems like the wind is going to be NE at first which will help east/mid/north Kent and parts of EA but then it shifts more to NEE/E which moves precip from those areas to western kent/London region including possibly essex/Suffolk coastal areas.

Met Office don't seem too bothered by it but a lot of us have years of locals experience in this set up and have had snow when none was forecast.

Maybe there will be some melt and only highest regions will get some covering but still would have expected a low impact/low likelihood yellow. They're the experts though so what do I know lol. 

Fun times. Good luck to everyone in the SE.  

We can add Gem to the list . 

Edited January 6 by Mark wheeler