SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on

[BLS]

2 minutes ago, Kent Blizzard said:

What's this based on? Not the metO symbols again surely??

 

No I’ve just seen people mention it elsewhere (not mad thread) and that the temp is still currently rather high 

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

I just don't get this.. -8 has served me well as 0 at ground baseline..-10 and below is definitely 0

I think it depends on (in part, at least) how far you are away from the sea: I was in Inverness in January 2010 and had sleety rain, and it's the same here; uppers of -10C are almost always okay. Sometimes, however, depending on the air source (and dps and such) -4C will do. . . asking John Holmes is never a bad idea. 

[throwoff]

2 minutes ago, BLS said:

No I’ve just seen people mention it elsewhere (not mad thread) and that the temp is still currently rather high 

It’s coming, we are going to do alright 

[SouthLondonCold]

27 minutes ago, Methuselah said:

Tomorrow in London?  That said, things are looking quite good! 

   

Looking good Which AI is used to create these?

 

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, SouthLondonCold said:

Looking good Which AI is used to create these?

 

Microsoft. 

[Kent Blizzard]

10 minutes ago, BLS said:

No I’ve just seen people mention it elsewhere (not mad thread) and that the temp is still currently rather high 

West Kingsdown had snow falling earlier (Admittedly Altitude helps) ...but don't worry yourself at this stage.

[Bradley in Kent]

I might be clutching at straws here:

Dew points are below freezing which helps dry out the ground and hence help cool it down further due to evaporation. 

To get lying snow you need multiple factors to come together.

850s - no problem

2m temps - would normally be knife edge at 0c to 2c but low 850s and 950s would take care of that

Dew Points - no problem

Differential between 850hpa vs SST - a difference of 20c so no problem there

Sun - no problem, its January!

Ground temps / setting snow - very uncertain (see above)

Air pressure - rising fast and very uncertain, would this reduce the lifted index too much?

Wind speed - just about okay, not too strong thankfully but is preventing a decent fall in 2m land temperature.

Wind direction - looking like North Down West of Medway along to Surrey are favourite.

That's my take on tonight and tomorrow.

Good luck all!

[Neilsouth]

In the last hour it feels so much colder, the heating keeps coming on aswell to keep up! ( no gas )

[Methuselah]

It's only 3C here just now. . . it's on the way down! 

[snowray]

29 minutes ago, BLS said:

I tend to agree I am kind of confused as to why I’ve seen some online (not here) saying kent could see up to 5cm tomorrow  

Bearsted used to be one of the honey pots in Kent back in the 80's for snow, I think it was Jan 87 that my old boss who lived there was completely snowed in for almost a week and couldn't make it in to work in London, he was a short man, I remember him saying he could not see over the snow drifts in his back garden.

Tomorrow should be a lot colder than today so can't see us reaching them dizzy heights of 4/5c again. 

Upper temps today were around -6c, tomorrow -10c, -11c, -12c

Dew points today were 2c on the coast and about 0c, possibly -1c in places max, tomorrow -3c, -4c, -5c. 

Should make a big difference, I think some places will see 2/3cm maybe a bit more. Any bookies around to start a competition, Tom?

 

[Kentspur]

Sent out by my work this morning

[MAF]

5 minutes ago, snowray said:

Bearsted used to be one of the honey pots in Kent back in the 80's for snow, I think it was Jan 87 that my old boss who lived there was completely snowed in for almost a week and couldn't make it in to work in London, he was a short man, I remember him saying he could not see over the snow drifts in his back garden.

Tomorrow should be a lot colder than today so can't see us reaching them dizzy heights of 4/5c again. 

Upper temps today were around -6c, tomorrow -10c, -11c, -12c

Dew points today were 2c on the coast and about 0c, possibly -1c in places max, tomorrow -3c, -4c, -5c. 

Should make a big difference, I think some places will see 2/3cm maybe a bit more. Any bookies around to start a competition, Tom?

 

I bet! 

This group chat seems to be turning into a model thread ...... please lets not go down that road 

but seriously. I think the higher ground will see some flurries, nothing substantial enough to disrupt things but nice to see if you catch them. 

Lets think that we are a quarter way through Jan and it might improve for those who want a 'proper' winter event  

[Coopsy]

59 minutes ago, Jason M said:

It can only ever be a few flurries. Air pressure is going to be very high tomorrow. Its actually surprising that we will even see flurries given just how far pressure is rising.  

Though air pressure is rising, its less important when talking about sea effect snow.

It's more about temp differential from the sea to the air, along with other factors creating instability, fetch and wind sheer.

As a long fetch of cold air flows over the north sea, the fetch consumes an enormous amount of latent energy from the warm moisture from the water into cold air. High pressure or not. In fact some of the heaviest lake effect snow I've been in in Canada happened once a high moved in. 

This further destabilizes the atmosphere, and generates convection. 

As those convective plumes develop the upward forcing increased through frictional convergence and upsloping once it hits the land.

Admittedly higher wind speed (without sheer) increases snowfall rates.

I do think this could help areas inland as the upsloping increase snowfall rates (hence seeing intensity increase on the radar a few miles inland (hitting the north downs at 200-250m asl)

This is why I used to love this set up. If the models don't show these various factors but suddenly the real weather aligns last minute, its a surprise snownanza. Alternatively it can work the other way of course. 

Here's hoping it's the former for the SE tomorrow. It's never going to be epic but I'm sure a few cm's would please most  

Edited January 7 by Coopsy

[MAF]

Good to see you around coops  

[Kasim Awan]

Definitely more than flurries tomorrow. Difficult to forecast streamer intensity however mid morning there is potential for a narrow but potent streamer into west Kent. Similar in the evening. 2-7cm possible fairly widely if it develops well with marginality an issue at times within 10 miles of coast 

[MAF]

God! my life is ebbing away just looking on the model thread. talk of day 10, 11, 12 is way too far ahead for me. i just want to know about tomorrow, not next week, which may never come. never had and never will understand what is so fascinating about a computer telling me the future and trying to predict nature ... ho hum. bed time for this old git...

Edited January 7 by MAF

[lassie23]

I am officially on snow grain watch Now can I stay awake for 48 hours

[E17boy]

Hi peeps

hope you are all well. Been dry day here in Walthamstow today but did feel cold in that wind. I am bit disappointed regarding tomorrow firstly the planned underground strikes have been suspended that means I will have to commute to my office in Milton Keynes, so I will miss any falling snow that that does occur in London as in MK I don’t think any is expected. 
 

Also I always believed this cold spell would not be the one we are all waiting for, ie east or northeast winds and plenty of heavy snow showers moving in. Yes the week does look cold but there is no sign at the moment of any significant snow event for our part here. Winds may turn northerly next weekend but as some have mentioned already that rarely does us any good in the Southeast. 
 

On the brighter side we have still got a fair bit of winter to go and I am sure if we can all get to see a December 11th 2022 again we would be happy.

take care all and good luck everyone for tomorrow.

 

regards

[MAF]

1 minute ago, lassie23 said:

I am officially on snow grain watch Now can I stay awake for 48 hours

Only if you have enough spirit 

used to stay awake for 48 hours when i worked shift.... not good for the liver though

[lassie23]

Just now, E17boy said:

Hi peeps

hope you are all well. Been dry day here in Walthamstow today but did feel cold in that wind. I am bit disappointed regarding tomorrow firstly the planned underground strikes have been suspended that means I will have to commute to my office in Milton Keynes, so I will miss any falling snow that that does occur in London as in MK I don’t think any is expected. 
 

Also I always believed this cold spell would not be the one we are all waiting for, ie east or northeast winds and plenty of heavy snow showers moving in. Yes the week does look cold but there is no sign at the moment of any significant snow event for our part here. Winds may turn northerly next weekend but as some have mentioned already that rarely does us any good in the Southeast. 
 

On the brighter side we have still got a fair bit of winter to go and I am sure if we can all get to see a December 11th 2022 again we would be happy.

take care all and good luck everyone for tomorrow.

 

regards

Northerly winds are garbage for NW London, sunny and cold no thanks

Just now, MAF said:

Only if you have enough spirit 

used to stay awake for 48 hours when i worked shift.... not good for the liver though

My liver needs 8 hours a night minimum otherwise it plays up

[Neilsouth]

4 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

I am officially on snow grain watch Now can I stay awake for 48 hours

Me too! Even watching the radar/sat images for the south east! Still better than the model thread which has been flooded with Football related posts :(

[MAF]

Whats football?

[lassie23]

1 minute ago, Neilsouth said:

Me too! Even watching the radar/sat images for the south east! Still better than the model thread which has been flooded with Football related posts

a foot of snow would be the dogs balls

[pinball wizard]

48 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

In the last hour it feels so much colder, the heating keeps coming on aswell to keep up! ( no gas )

I've noticed that too, probably means a reduction in humidity and dew points

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

a foot of snow would be the dogs balls

The dog must have been neutered, then?