SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on

[steveinsussex]

[wellington boot]

We're going through our last 15 min yellow blob for now, and now that everything is covered it's all accumulating and things are looking increasingly snow drenched.

Frustrating gaps and lack of intensity after this looking at the radar, however. High pressure / lack of real instability is the problem. It just goes to show how quickly you can have a serious fall though with a good shower stream. We've been blanketed within a couple of hours of decent showers, whereas some of the best events in the past 15 years have seen a day or more of showers packing in.

[This Moody Sky]

Snow has started up again here. Even five minutes of it, is such a rarity for us in the 'far east'. Really cold too

[Sparky68]

A few flakes in the air here, unexpected this far North 

[kold weather]

Right at the tail end of the meaningful snowfall streamer here, not heavy enough to settle but it is a pretty sight to be fair if nothing else.

I'd have loved to have been back in SW Essex, looks like they got a couple of hours of moderate snowfall earlier, though I'd imagine it won't be settling that well outside of the heavy bursts.

[Gowon]

Going dark again!

[BLS]

In terms of thickness we have got the best of the day so far here very big flakes now, looks like only a shower but many more behind on the radar! Town centre not bad but the village I live in just outside apparently has a nice covering already 

[Lauren]

Unusually for Walderslade and Lordswood, it doesn't seem to be as heavy here as it is for rest of area. Normally the other way round.

[WinterOf47]

I lived downwind of Georgian Bay in Canada for 7 years and became an expert at predicting Lake Effect Snow (best dump was 45cms from 11:00pm to 7:00am the next morning). I actually predicted what we are seeing now in the South east the other day on the main chat. The large models are rubbish at picking up Lake or Sea Effect snow..a little smudge of precipitation can be 20cm! The streamers are forming just at the bottom of the North Sea to the east of the Thames Estuary. Unfortunately the wind is going to shift slightly to east later this evening, so this won’t last, but we could get a few cms in some parts of the the South east, especially if it carries on into the evening. Got about 1 cm here in Southern West Sussex, but radar is looking good upwind.

 

[StLuke]

Typical temperature and Dp are now prime for settling but snow has stopped!  

[Mark wheeler]

Oh dear certainly a nowcast radar situation . Even the nmm has underdone this and actually has snow where there is none now.

Edited January 8 by Mark wheeler

[WinterOf47]

1 minute ago, Mark wheeler said:

Oh dear certainly a nowcast radar situation . Even the nmm has underdone this .

It’s really hard to predict this stuff. The whole lot is surface generated from wind and water-air temp differential. Shame that the winds will shift more Eastward early evening or we could have had some serious accumulations in parts of the SE.

[Swave Snow]

Just now, WinterOf47 said:

It’s really hard to predict this stuff. The whole lot is surface generated from wind and water-air temp differential. Shame that the winds will shift more Eastward early evening or we could have had some serious accumulations in parts of the SE.

shifting eastwards will hit london though

[Dave90]

Just got home along the M20, top of Wrotham Hill area looks amazing, nice white blanket over everything! 

Nice big flakes landing at home in Detling but not really settling much

[TSNWK]

Just now, Swave Snow said:

shifting eastwards will hit london though

Correct.. but I'm not sure how much longer the Thames estuary can keep producing as the deep cold uppers have passed through 

[Swave Snow]

Just now, TSNWK said:

Correct.. but I'm not sure how much longer the Thames estuary can keep producing as the deep cold uppers have passed through 

I hear that but South End is still at dew point of minus 3 which is good for North London 

[wellington boot]

2 minutes ago, WinterOf47 said:

It’s really hard to predict this stuff. The whole lot is surface generated from wind and water-air temp differential. Shame that the winds will shift more Eastward early evening or we could have had some serious accumulations in parts of the SE.

Yes this won't help. The best case scenario is that a) we squeeze a few more hours of decent showers from the current set up, and there is still some formation and building in places so some at least might get lucky with this, then b) that we get some parallel shower streams on the easterly breeze later. Have seen that before even down here away from London, and every little helps...

[danm]

15 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Right at the tail end of the meaningful snowfall streamer here, not heavy enough to settle but it is a pretty sight to be fair if nothing else.

I'd have loved to have been back in SW Essex, looks like they got a couple of hours of moderate snowfall earlier, though I'd imagine it won't be settling that well outside of the heavy bursts.

I'm on the border of NE London/SW Essex, we had some moderate bursts here but nothing has settled. 

[Kasim Awan]

8 minutes ago, StLuke said:

Typical temperature and Dp are now prime for settling but snow has stopped!  

The streamer going into North Kent will develop and push West next few hours.

[TSNWK]

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

The streamer going into North Kent will develop and push West next few hours.

Why do you say this please? As coldest uppers have passed through,

[Dami]

light sleety/snowy stuff in beddy

[Davegwarn]

12 minutes ago, WinterOf47 said:

I lived downwind of Georgian Bay in Canada for 7 years and became an expert at predicting Lake Effect Snow (best dump was 45cms from 11:00pm to 7:00am the next morning). I actually predicted what we are seeing now in the South east the other day on the main chat. The large models are rubbish at picking up Lake or Sea Effect snow..a little smudge of precipitation can be 20cm! The streamers are forming just at the bottom of the North Sea to the east of the Thames Estuary. Unfortunately the wind is going to shift slightly to east later this evening, so this won’t last, but we could get a few cms in some parts of the the South east, especially if it carries on into the evening. Got about 1 cm here in Southern West Sussex, but radar is looking good upwind.

 

Hi Winter, I've been over to Barrie and Midland in that neck of the woods many times. A different world! 

[Mark wheeler]

The lowest uppers  have NOT yet passed we have until around 6/7pm tonight.

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, Mark wheeler said:

The lowest uppers  have NOT yet passed we have until around 6/7pm tonight.

@TSNWK Convection looks good until 1/2am.

There are indications 5cm has fallen in parts of Kent. My 15cm shout is still possible.

[Captain Shortwave]

Well there were a few snow grains when I left work in Huntingdon, so technically I have seen something.