SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on

[throwoff]

Met4cast still quite positive he’s not missed a beat this winter so far, called every event.

[Bazza118]

It’s not surprising but another chilly morning. Currently -3.8c dp -4c and clear at the moment before the cloud rolls in. 

 

 

 

[Shaunado]

Pleased to see snow symbols appearing on the Met Office app for my location mid next week!

[throwoff]

The GFS 00Z is not great for our area, reduced us to mild snowfall on Weds from what was very promising. 

Trying to not look at every run as there really won't be much clarity till back end of Sunday/Monday

[The Beast From The East]

Well i just caught the Latest BBC local forcast 15 minutes ago for London and the SE and a very dissapointing outlook for next week. No mention of snow and only for average temperatures and heavy rain on Wednesday .... 

Edited January 11 by The Beast From The East

[throwoff]

6 minutes ago, The Beast From The East said:

Well i just caught the Latest BBC local forcast 15 minutes ago for London and the SE and a very dissapointing outlook for next week. No mention of snow and only for average temperatures and heavy rain on Wednesday .... 

Beeb tend to keep the powder dry till close to the time. I am still on the fence myself but don't expect them to start pushing snowfall till late Monday at least.

[The Beast From The East]

2 minutes ago, throwoff said:

Beeb tend to keep the powder dry till close to the time. I am still on the fence myself but don't expect them to start pushing snowfall till late Monday at least.

True... I'm just supprised they don't even mention that there is a risk of the S word being that it is a live forcast... 

[Tom Montalbano]

A very good Morning, all.

Hope I find yourselves and your Families, well.

I see at one point this Morning on the MAD Thread the ECM Model went from Zero to hero, after yesterday Evening's "toys out the pram" tantrums but now the inevitable contradictory and recriminatory posts, have taken over.

If our Region is not to get Snow next Week, and I've given my own selfish reasons why I wouldn't want to see too much of the "White Stuff", below is an image sent to me by my eldest Sister of the Snow that fell a few Days, ago:

My Sister lives in Riverhead, near Sevenoaks.

Regards,

Tom Q. 

[Methuselah]

I wonder which iterations of Toy Story we'll be treated to today. . . 

[throwoff]

1 minute ago, Methuselah said:

I wonder which iterations of Toy Story we'll be treated to today. . . 

I try to just skim the mod nowadays. It's too mad a lot of the time.

There are some superb posters, but the constant pillar to post is a bit much.

Saying all of the that the posters I tend to respect the most, especially Met4Cast and others are all still quite positive about next week.

[lassie23]

28 minutes ago, throwoff said:

I try to just skim the mod nowadays. It's too mad a lot of the time.

There are some superb posters, but the constant pillar to post is a bit much.

Saying all of the that the posters I tend to respect the most, especially Met4Cast and others are all still quite positive about next week.

i skimmed it just now, there was an upgrade to the downgrade which upgraded slightly but still was a downgrade when compared to the original upgrade I think that translates to cloudy 2 c patchy sleet.

[Tom Montalbano]

Morning all, again.

Shall I really jinx our Snow chances next Week, by attempting the foolhardy Synoptic "pattern matching".

The Synoptic chart on the left, is from Tues. 8th December, 1981.

As I'm an old f--t, I remember the December 18981 event, vividly.

I lived in Camberwell S.E. London. at the time. Heavy Rain transitioned to heavy Snow, during the early Morning Rush Hour, and even though Camberwell is an Inner London location and the ground was very wet from the heavy Rain that had been falling for a couple of hours, surprisingly the Snow settled quickly once the intensity kicked in.

It still remains the "best" Rain > Snow event, I've witnessed. This surge of bitter Arctic air that Morning was the catalyst for ushering in the very Wintry December, of 1981.

On the right, is the European [ECMWF] Model as it sees the Synoptic situation in the late Morning, next Tuesday [16th]:

    /     / 

There you go, I've really jinxed our Region's Snow chances, now!!

Regards,

Tom Q. 

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, Tom Quintavalle said:

Morning all, again.

Shall I really jinx our Snow chances next Week, by attempting the foolhardy Synoptic "pattern matching".

The Synoptic chart on the left, is from Tues. 8th December, 1981.

As I'm an old f--t, I remember the December 18981 event, vividly.

I lived in Camberwell S.E. London. at the time. Heavy Rain transitioned to heavy Snow, during the early Morning Rush Hour, and even though Camberwell is an Inner London location and the ground was very wet from the heavy Rain that had been falling for a couple of hours, surprisingly the Snow settled quickly once the intensity kicked in.

It still remains the "best" Rain > Snow event, I've witnessed. This surge of bitter Arctic air that Morning was the catalyst for ushering in the very Wintry December, of 1981.

On the right, is the European [ECMWF] Model as it sees the Synoptic situation in the late Morning, next Tuesday [16th]:

    /     / 

There you go, I've really jinxed our Region's Snow chances, now!!

Regards,

Tom Q. 

How's your Tardis, Tom? 

[Tom Montalbano]

1 minute ago, Methuselah said:

How's your Tardis, Tom? 

In good working order Pete!!

And being Bromley born and bred, don't forget or most famous resident -   

The Godfather of Science Fiction [H.G. Wells], wrote - 

Regards,

Tom Q. 

 

[Froze were the Days]

11 hours ago, throwoff said:

Met4cast still quite positive he’s not missed a beat this winter so far, called every event.

what events and what range?...

[alexisj9]

2 hours ago, The Beast From The East said:

Well i just caught the Latest BBC local forcast 15 minutes ago for London and the SE and a very dissapointing outlook for next week. No mention of snow and only for average temperatures and heavy rain on Wednesday .... 

Last night's ecm

[lassie23]

42 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Last night's ecm

So it's gone from a month-long freeze to a 5-day cold snap in that thread

[Bogman]

18 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

So it's gone from a month-long freeze to a 5-day cold snap in that thread

And mainly oop-north.

[lassie23]

2 minutes ago, Bogman said:

And mainly oop-north.

Shetlands lol

[throwoff]

28 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

So it's gone from a month-long freeze to a 5-day cold snap in that thread

Again, I wouldn't worry too much at this point. The reliable posters are still looking fairly confident, you have to skim through and find the trustworthy names!

[lassie23]

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[snowblind]

Maxed out at 4.3 yesterday and down to -1.8 last night.

The frost has lifted now with the temp now up to 3.2. Have lost the lovely sunshine of this morning and it is just grey now. I imagine the cloud will prevent a frost tonight.

Feels cold out there and the puddles are still frozen.

[Snowangel-MK]

The nation's favourite conversation went mainstream on 11 January 1954 when the BBC introduced “on-screen weather presenters” to deliver the daily forecast. Seventy years on we have super computers instead of hand drawn charts, green screens and graphics have replaced the magnetic weather symbol's and we still have no idea if/when/where it will snow next week  

[snowblind]

Thought I'd have a look at the models myself today instead of trying to figure out the MAD thread.

I just looked at the GFS and ECM. To me it's looking good for a cold spell out to about the 22nd of Jan when they seem to lose the cold signal with the mean heading back to average, but that's a long way off. When I say cold spell looks like temps below 5 for the duration. This is for London so should be a bit colder over most of our region.

The ECM looks colder than the GFS but the 0600 GFS run looks colder than then the midnight one.

As for snow chances unknowable at this range but we are in with a shout if things fall well for us.

That's my stab, very vague but I don't see how you can put much detail on it as things  change so much. But the trend, ignoring the volatile operational runs, seems to be, warming up slightly rest of this week and less frost due to more cloud. Getting cold again from Monday onwards so max temps in the 2 to 3 range I think. Possibly returning to near average by the 22nd of Jan ish. A snow risk from midweek next week.

I could have completely misread the models and it could all change anyway so don't hold me to any of this.

[sunnijim]

Regarding next week.

Here on the SE coast we are on the cusp of Winter Nirvana or Winter crud depending on what model and what run you choose to look at.

We have seen the same scenarios for days on end now, model uncertainty as to where the boundary of cold and mild will be and of course the rain/ snow line.

Imby is not an unusual emotion where snow is concerned particularly as it seems as rare as hens teeth these days to get a decent fall here.

Which leads me to the MAD thread.

Just one example where I have had to bite my reply finger.

"what is the problem here, you won't get much better than this, it is all snow for all North of the M4"

Think it was a response to someone who asked for the initial cold plunge to extend far into France.

I'm done with the extreme South getting misty mild drizzle and rain for a week or more while those further up country get the Winter Nirvana.

It has happened many times in my lifetime with the synoptics on offer.

So yes imby here, if we can't get a decent track on these systems let's stay in the dry cold and sunny conditions