SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on

[Gowon]

We're still in with a chance for Wednesday .. I've seen these situations before where the low moves slightly further north than the models anticipated.

And in this situation we don't want it to move too far north so the cold air doesn't get mixed out; just few more runs to get through, then I'll be watching it's track on the radar.

10 minutes ago, Vortex3929 said:

Morning all.. netwx 7 day forecast says light snow here this evening. Wasn't expecting that.

I'll believe Wednesday when I see it! Looks like quite a cold one though, particularly with the wind chill. Meto also are picking on north Kent for the windchill too. Brrrr!

Loving the sods law forecast too @Tom Quintavalle  Is there a specific date? I'll pop it in my phone as a reminder to add an extra prayer on the morning for you, and just to follow that date for snow potential the mad thread has suggested a "back loaded winter" with Feb being a good chance too so you may be on to something- even if unintentionally in jest!

Yes, chance of a few flurries this evening too.

Edited January 14 by Gowon
added Wednesday

[Froze were the Days]

Latest FAX shows a convergence of fronts (one coming down from the north) on Wednesday...so who knows, maybe a chance?

[southbank]

9 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Latest FAX shows a convergence of fronts (one coming down from the north) on Wednesday...so who knows, maybe a chance?

If those fronts could only straddle the M4. Corridor that really would be a news worthy event - as it stands looks like northern France / Normandy into Belgium are in line for a pasting as the moisture on the front boundaries will be where the action will be - looks like the cold front sweeping south has little moisture on it and it keeps the Atlantic low from encroaching on our neck of the woods - typical heads you lose tails you lose for UK - talk about bad timing - but the margins are small a 50/100 miles shift north and south coast may be back in play where in the grand scheme of micro scheme is tiny 

 

[Kent Blizzard]

So we are finally at Sunday and the start of this next Cold spell.

So as things stand for the week ahead..

Cold ☑ Frost ☑ Snow 20% Wednesday for the SE.

I'm hoping by this time tomorrow the % can get to 30% for Wednesday depending on how the outputs show the low positioning. 

Today is an interesting day as to how the models compare to the events being played out up North today in real time.

In terms of a significant snow event for the SE I'd say we are currently at 10% with plenty of twists and turns to come still. When you look at some of the temperatures modelled for Thursday and Friday that tells me they've considered snow cover on the ground?

Enjoy the ride!

 

 

 

[alexisj9]

53 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Latest FAX shows a convergence of fronts (one coming down from the north) on Wednesday...so who knows, maybe a chance?

That actually looks like more than a chance. That one coming down seems to be where the snow line on the icon was going up to. Perhaps we'll see Wednesday either way, but if low stays south, I don't think it matters looking at that fax chart. Just a little worrying where the dam line is, above us. But I'm not sure that'll be a problem.

[alexisj9]

16 minutes ago, Kent Blizzard said:

So we are finally at Sunday and the start of this next Cold spell.

So as things stand for the week ahead..

Cold ☑ Frost ☑ Snow 20% Wednesday for the SE.

I'm hoping by this time tomorrow the % can get to 30% for Wednesday depending on how the outputs show the low positioning. 

Today is an interesting day as to how the models compare to the events being played out up North today in real time.

In terms of a significant snow event for the SE I'd say we are currently at 10% with plenty of twists and turns to come still. When you look at some of the temperatures modelled for Thursday and Friday that tells me they've considered snow cover on the ground?

Enjoy the ride!

 

 

 

Us it only just starting, yesterday was freezing here, and developed fog even before night fall.

[Kent Blizzard]

5 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Us it only just starting, yesterday was freezing here, and developed fog even before night fall.

We may even see a flake or two this evening

The feel like temperatures this week will certainly be bitter!

 

[throwoff]

Still the models giving Kent a go, those north of Kent in our region are looking less likely but still in with a shot.

[Kentspur]

5 minutes ago, throwoff said:

Still the models giving Kent a go, those north of Kent in our region are looking less likely but still in with a shot.

Ohh have any models updated then?

[lassie23]

10 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Ohh have any models updated then?

yes Feb is going to be sunny 25c lol

[Gowon]

10 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

yes Feb is going to be sunny 25c lol

Give us something more realistic -- I don't think 25c is possible in Feb?

[Froze were the Days]

19 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

yes Feb is going to be sunny 25c lol

...and certain experienced forecasters on here will be wiping the yolk off their faces!

[SHM040519]

48 minutes ago, throwoff said:

Still the models giving Kent a go, those north of Kent in our region are looking less likely but still in with a shot.

Do we think so? Models seem all over the place 

[Kentspur]

44 minutes ago, Gowon said:

Give us something more realistic -- I don't think 25c is possible in Feb?

Happened prior to "global boiling" in 91 across the pond...

Just watched Marco.Petagna on Skynews he said some models still showing it over southern regions but most likely will stay over the continent in France etc so still a small chance

[Methuselah]

Crikey. Parts of east Suffolk and Norfolk night even see some snow tomorrow. Just like in the olden days, eh? 

 

[snowblind]

21 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Happened prior to "global boiling" in 91 across the pond...

Just watched Marco.Petagna on Skynews he said some models still showing it over southern regions but most likely will stay over the continent in France etc so still a small chance

A few days ago the most unlikely scenario was that is was going to miss us and head into France. How things change. Only the GFS currently really interested in sending it north enough to affect our region.

[JennyJane1]

47 minutes ago, Methuselah said:

Crikey. Parts of east Suffolk and Norfolk night even see some snow tomorrow. Just like in the olden days, eh? 

 

I was watching it with interest, seems to put Hopton right in the sweet spot?If its correct, I should wake to snow tomorrow morning and then the snow should continue all day. We would be buried! But probably won't happen.

[Gowon]

ICON is further south with the low..

[Methuselah]

37 minutes ago, JennyJane1 said:

I was watching it with interest, seems to put Hopton right in the sweet spot?If its correct, I should wake to snow tomorrow morning and then the snow should continue all day. We would be buried! But probably won't happen.

Me too, but a lot'll depend on wind-direction: a tad more northerly and we'll be quids in; a touch more westerly and we'll see nothing. 

[Polaris]

17 minutes ago, Gowon said:

ICON is further south with the low..

Latest Beeb going with low ppn staying in France now. 
 

A dry week coming away from the north. 
At least no more flooding. 
 

Stav, confirming a dry and cold week for our region. 
 

 

[Gowon]

5 minutes ago, Polaris said:

Latest Beeb going with low ppn staying in France now. 
 

A dry week coming away from the north. 
At least no more flooding. 
 

Stav, confirming a dry and cold week for our region. 
 

 

Boring cold week for us, then. 

Onto the next chase.

[snowblind]

40 minutes ago, Gowon said:

ICON is further south with the low..

GFS as well. Think it's a bust now.

[Eagle Eye]

12Z GFS

[Gowon]

We might get some flurries tonight.

[Eagle Eye]

I mean, watch out in Norfolk tomorrow... Maybe even 10 flakes could fall.