SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on

[Polaris]

12c here forecast for this time next week. 
Until then a sunny, Cold and dry week ahead. 
 

Shame about no snow, but as a Brit of 41 years it’s no surprise. 

[throwoff]

 

It's only gone and done it! Kent back in firing line!

[tight isobar]

1 minute ago, throwoff said:

 

It's only gone and done it! Kent back in firing line!

We raise the game via North Sea precipitation (possible) into the region.. this is an evolver.. very interesting!!!

[DEYS(Kent)]

GFS 12z grazes the south coast. How many times have systems gone further north than forecast. Many times.

[throwoff]

6 minutes ago, DEYS(Kent) said:

GFS 12z grazes the south coast. How many times have systems gone further north than forecast. Many times.

It’s already a huge upgrade for the entire south 

[TSNWK]

11 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

We raise the game via North Sea precipitation (possible) into the region.. this is an evolver.. very interesting!!!

Wrap around effect...as low passes under us we could bring stuff in from the north Sea as winds go north easterly for 12 hours or so..

[steveinsussex]

lol oh you guys

 

bless

 

just give it up

[Challock Weather]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

Wrap around effect...as low passes under us we could bring stuff in from the north Sea as winds go north easterly for 12 hours or so..

Interesting developments and definitely a watch and see period coming up... Anyway still frost on the lawn here and even have an icicle hanging from the gutter #seasonal

[TSNWK]

Just now, steveinsussex said:

lol oh you guys

 

bless

 

just give it up

This might be our only chance this winter...got to squeeze it as long as possible.  Could be a nowcast situation 

[tight isobar]

7 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Wrap around effect...as low passes under us we could bring stuff in from the north Sea as winds go north easterly for 12 hours or so..

Exactly that.

[Challock Weather]

2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

This might be our only chance this winter...got to squeeze it as long as possible.  Could be a nowcast situation 

Fairly confident things will improve again in the medium term. My hunch is something from the NE next

[Kentspur]

24 minutes ago, throwoff said:

 

It's only gone and done it! Kent back in firing line!

Walking the thin blue line (as usual)  

[steveinsussex]

7 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

This might be our only chance this winter...got to squeeze it as long as possible.  Could be a nowcast situation 

Sad innit

[Challock Weather]

It would actually be funny if we did cop a decent fall on Weds after the dramas on the MAD thread... The toys that would be thrown 

[DEYS(Kent)]

Depends what you class as a decent fall. I think a couple of cm at best if it does clip us.

[Kentspur]

Central London 1-2c colder than parts of NW Kent tonight 0 to -1c here -2c there by the looks of it, backs up my point were usually warmest in a lot of setups hence the failed snowfalls of recent years except last December . Late January 2021 I think it was? Even central London had snow cover while we had mainly rain and a bit of sleet a few miles east here!

Edited January 15 by Kentspur

[throwoff]

15 minutes ago, Challock Weather said:

It would actually be funny if we did cop a decent fall on Weds after the dramas on the MAD thread... The toys that would be thrown 

Others have said here, though I wouldn’t dare say it on the Mod, but these patterns tend to move further north than predicted. 

[snowblind]

GEM seems to be the keenest on something across our region on Wednesday. Again pivoting the system into Kent and dragging something in across East Anglia.

The others are pretty much the same as previous runs, GFS just clipping into Kent. Icon and UKMO, a bit further south.

[throwoff]

3 minutes ago, snowblind said:

GEM seems to be the keenest on something across our region on Wednesday. Again pivoting the system into Kent and dragging something in across East Anglia.

The others are pretty much the same as previous runs, GFS just clipping into Kent. Icon and UKMO, a bit further south.

The 12z GFS is a huge upgrade for Kent and the south over the 06, we had no chance this morning and suddenly it’s back in play 

[Reefseeker]

1 hour ago, Kentspur said:

Its funny as standing outside here in 5c feels colder than -9c when I was in Sweden there's def a different sort of cold on the continent for sure a shame you're not in Prague a bit earlier they have snow in the next few days hope it stays for when you're there have a great time! My 2 trips to Northeast Europe so far have been lucky for me had snow not only in Sweden in November but also a couple inches in Riga, Latvia on my only other trip to the other side of Europe highly reccommend that place for a Christmas break Unesco world heritage site the whole city and great value much cheaper than Scandinavia food was awesome and biggest market in Europe

Thanks, and yes, I had a bit of hope for snow in Prague, but am happy with cold and seasonal. Agree with what you say, 'cold' varies so much, especially with a stiff wind against you. I'll put Riga on the list; I was there as a student, so it would have changed rather a lot by now.  My coldest ever was -25 in Moscow, and my face went so numb I couldn't speak! Sounds like you have done well on the snow front - send your luck around the south east on Wednesday... please!

[snowblind]

2 minutes ago, throwoff said:

The 12z GFS is a huge upgrade for Kent and the south over the 06, we had no chance this morning and suddenly it’s back in play 

I'm looking on wetterzentral and it doesn't look as good as the charts posted above and it doesn't show any accumulation either. These look like the best 2 frames 3 hours apart.

But it's a start. Let's see if ECM can improve on it.

[Floatylight]

1 hour ago, throwoff said:

 

It's only gone and done it! Kent back in firing line!

Can we go a smigde north pleaseee

[Kentspur]

35 minutes ago, snowblind said:

GEM seems to be the keenest on something across our region on Wednesday. Again pivoting the system into Kent and dragging something in across East Anglia.

The others are pretty much the same as previous runs, GFS just clipping into Kent. Icon and UKMO, a bit further south.

Haha couldn't make it up haha   I'm in the start of that dry gap between the band over the rest of my county and the one over EA hopefully the signal strengthens be lovely to see us all get atleast a small amount

[SnowBorder]

From the 6 weather apps on my phone, only accuweather is showing snow for Wednesday morning, although the app does claim to have ‘superior accuracy’

[Gowon]

1 hour ago, steveinsussex said:

lol oh you guys

 

bless

 

just give it up

No!! There's still a chance!