SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on

[Donna3397]

37 minutes ago, snowray said:

Maybe not such a bright idea.

You can imagine the headlines..

"Thousands stranded as Eurostar cancelled due to blizzards hitting northern France".

It’s probably the first time that all that many people wanted to go there

21 minutes ago, snowray said:

Maybe it could still shift a bit further north, I mean 20/30 miles further inland would include a fairly large chunk of Kent and Sussex, 50 miles and it's not far from South London.

I'd be happy with just a 20 mile shift north from an IMBY perspective.

 

Me to 

[Challock Weather]

4 minutes ago, Donna3397 said:

It’s probably the first time that all that many people wanted to go there

It is a fairly bleak part of France tbh. Things are more interesting as you head a bit further west towards the Cap de Gris and uplands. Imagine that will be in the firing line looking at Meteo France updates 

Edited January 16 by Challock Weather
Predictive text wrong

[throwoff]

8 minutes ago, Challock Weather said:

It is a fairly bleak part of France tbh. Things are more interesting as you head a bit further west towards the Cap de Gris and uplands. Imagine that will be in the firing line looking at Meteo France updates 

Not massively different to swathes of our south coast to be honest.

[Ben M]

I'm guessing when the Wednesday low starts to appear on the radar we'll be able to see if it's further north or not? I know virtually all of the models are saying no but I just can't let this one go 

[Challock Weather]

1 minute ago, Ben M said:

I'm guessing when the Wednesday low starts to appear on the radar we'll be able to see if it's further north or not? I know virtually all of the models are saying no but I just can't let this one go 

I believe it may just be starting to appear in the SW Approaches. Not enough showing to make a call yet

[throwoff]

3 minutes ago, Ben M said:

I'm guessing when the Wednesday low starts to appear on the radar we'll be able to see if it's further north or not? I know virtually all of the models are saying no but I just can't let this one go 

I love the madness this hobby creates.

I know it won't get here. But I still will check the radar returns later..

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, Ben M said:

I'm guessing when the Wednesday low starts to appear on the radar we'll be able to see if it's further north or not? I know virtually all of the models are saying no but I just can't let this one go 

Agree. On more than one occasion I've seen the radar been 50 or miles out when matched against a t +0 forecast.. should get a darn good clue this evening as the low heads up through South west approaches 

[Uxbridge90]

Do I sport a balmy 14c next week? Lovely jubbly! Now if we could get a bit of sun with it as well it'll start to feel like a very early Spring  sooner this could stuff shifts the better, especially if we're not going to get any snow. 

Local weather station had a low of -6c last night, brrrrr. 

[snowray]

Them showers just clipping corning coast are way ahead of schedule, could be a good omen.

[MAF]

3 minutes ago, throwoff said:

I love the madness this hobby creates.

I know it won't get here. But I still will check the radar returns later..

Like watching a repeat on TV for something really eventful happening. You know the outcome but still wish it happened differently.... typical example. missed penalties in England matches

[throwoff]

Just now, MAF said:

Like watching a repeat on TV for something really eventful happening. You know the outcome but still wish it happened differently.... typical example. missed penalties in England matches

Everytime Southgate steps up I think 'this time he has to score'

[East Kent Snow Desert]

1 hour ago, snowray said:

UKMO 06z has the PPN just clipping the south coast again, quite strange since its always shown it way to the south.

 

 

I guess there's no signs of a stall and pivot across the south east corner now as I think one or two of the models were suggesting this last night.

[Justin1705]

17 minutes ago, Challock Weather said:

I believe it may just be starting to appear in the SW Approaches. Not enough showing to make a call yet

It’s NOT going to happen, unless you’re in Brighton then there’s a chance. The only chance for anything further north is from the decaying front sinking south tomorrow morning. Just how much moisture is available from this is unclear, but would only be a dusting if anything. Good luck to all but give up on the front being further north. Just look at the PPN already being shunted eastward, the front will follow suite when it hits the northerly. If by some miracle it does snow tommorow. I’ll take it back, but I think you’re holding on to false hope. Even if it does scrape the southcoast, it will be slush on immediate coasts, and only a few CM’s inland. Most likely to stay in northern France or the channel.

[lassie23]

There is no point in it snowing when it will be 12 degrees on Sunday, you want it to snow at the start of a cold spell so it sticks around for a few days,

[snowblind]

28 minutes ago, East Kent Snow Desert said:

I guess there's no signs of a stall and pivot across the south east corner now as I think one or two of the models were suggesting this last night.

GEM and JMA just about manage it. The others are doing their improbable following the contours of the coastline act. A very very slim chance this will amount to anything for anywhere in our region now.

Edited January 16 by snowblind

[nick sussex]

1 hour ago, snowray said:

UKMO 06z has the PPN just clipping the south coast again, quite strange since its always shown it way to the south.

 

 

If the others were more interested then that jump north would be more notable . Given where it was on its 00 hrs run it’s a big shift north .

 

[throwoff]

9 minutes ago, snowblind said:

GEM and JMA just an out manage it. The others are doing their improbable following the contours of the coastline act. A very very slim chance this will amount to anything for anywhere in our region now.

The high seems to have pushed further south than expected which kills that idea dead 

[snowblind]

1 hour ago, snowray said:

I think your probably right there in that it will miss most of us.

Just about still worth keeping an eye on though, now the ICON 09z has also shifted things back north and is clipping the far SE. 

 

 

The JMA has this on its 0600 run. Seems the most optimistic atm.

1 hour ago, snowray said:

I think your probably right there in that it will miss most of us.

Just about still worth keeping an eye on though, now the ICON 09z has also shifted things back north and is clipping the far SE. 

 

 

 

Edited January 16 by snowblind

[tight isobar]

4 hours ago, Captain Shortwave said:

The best thing for tonight into tomorrow is to expect nothing and be pleasantly surprised amid anyone has a dusting of snow. At the moment the front to the south is likely to stay off the coast and the snow to north is likely to die out before reaching the likes of Cambridgeshire/Norfolk etc. However in real time things may not pan out this way.

Wise words

[TSNWK]

1 hour ago, TSNWK said:

Agree. On more than one occasion I've seen the radar been 50 or miles out when matched against a t +0 forecast.. should get a darn good clue this evening as the low heads up through South west approaches 

Just starting to show up in the south west approaches.. looks pretty much aligned to what is forecast at T0

[alexisj9]

2 hours ago, throwoff said:

He gets an insane amount of media attention considering he has never been right.

He was right once, and then things took off for him and his weird forecast method that probably only coincidentally worked that once.

[alexisj9]

2 hours ago, snowray said:

Maybe not such a bright idea.

You can imagine the headlines..

"Thousands stranded as Eurostar cancelled due to blizzards hitting northern France".

Thing is anyone that went over specifically for snow would probably expect that and not complain, it'll be the normal tourists doing that 

[Marie]

55 minutes ago, Justin1705 said:

It’s NOT going to happen, unless you’re in Brighton then there’s a chance. The only chance for anything further north is from the decaying front sinking south tomorrow morning. Just how much moisture is available from this is unclear, but would only be a dusting if anything. Good luck to all but give up on the front being further north. Just look at the PPN already being shunted eastward, the front will follow suite when it hits the northerly. If by some miracle it does snow tommorow. I’ll take it back, but I think you’re holding on to false hope. Even if it does scrape the southcoast, it will be slush on immediate coasts, and only a few CM’s inland. Most likely to stay in northern France or the channel.

I’m in Brighton keeping the faith

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

He was right once, and then things took off for him and his weird forecast method that probably only coincidentally worked that once.

Was that the same year that one or two NW peeps got it right, too? I've been right three times over the years. . . 1979, '86 and '87 were very helpful in that regard! 

[alexisj9]

2 minutes ago, Methuselah said:

Was that the same year that one or two NW peeps got it right, too? I've been right three times over the years. . . 1979, '86 and '87 were very helpful in that regard! 

Yep I believe it was, and they used proper forecasting, especially the one who the got employment and couldn't post any more.