Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[Mike Poole]

6 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

I mean, come on

Control very similar indeed to the op run (as it often should be as barring chaos they are identical), so this is a realistic progression of that run.  

[Allseasons-Si]

Look at the second drop in eps ens after the UK high

but noted,...it will stay cold underneath it.

[Crackerjack]

1 hour ago, Ali1977 said:

If the ECM is correct we are on the cusp of a 2 week or more big freeze - I reckon, maybe much longer. A rare thing!! 

Reminder Channel 5 at 9pm tonight 1947 Snows. Just saying 

[bluearmy]

I think Matt is posting the day 15 NH postage stamp profiles ….. he went a bit early

Edited January 1 by bluearmy

[Scott Ingham]

11 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

I mean, come on

What’s that date again 15 is becoming my favourite number!!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Absolutely insane set of ens from ecm.

I think @Scott Ingham has stated recently if this don't come off he will run naked around his town..hang on mate I'm a coming with ya  

[Nick2373]

12z Southwest way nothing spectacular to be honest from the 7th to the 11th cold then it’s all over the place after that anything up for grabs members 50/50 

[Scott Ingham]

2 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

Absolutely insane set of ens from ecm.

I think @Scott Ingham has stated recently if this don't come off he will run naked around his town..hang on mate I'm a coming with ya  

Hahahaha!

If it doesn’t come off I hope there’s a battlett set up as cold conditions won’t be a good look for mr Johnson downstairs! Your welcome to join me though!

Edited January 1 by Scott Ingham

[That ECM]

1 minute ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

Absolutely insane set of ens from ecm.

I think @Scott Ingham has stated recently if this don't come off he will run naked around his town..hang on mate I'm a coming with ya  

I look forward to you posting 51 screenshots.

[Derecho]

37 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Looking at that chart you'd think I only had 2-6cm but we had around 25cm level snow.

Wasn't that from snow depths prior to the easterly though? which then melted as milder air pushed north briefly prior to the easterly taking over on the 8th?

Anyhow back to the models, this is a great mean from the EC

Hopefully we can have a troposphere led split of the PV with this high retrogressing northwards and not a sinking into Europe high.

Maybe if we are lucky we can get a colder easterly as a starter beforehand.

Edited January 1 by Derecho

[london-snow]

9 minutes ago, Allseasons-Si said:

Look at the second drop in eps ens after the UK high

but noted,...it will stay cold underneath it.

It’s not much of a drop really isn’t it. 

[Ali1977]

10 minutes ago, Nick2373 said:

12z Southwest way nothing spectacular to be honest from the 7th to the 11th cold then it’s all over the place after that anything up for grabs members 50/50 

Are you just trying to get a bite  The GEFS will be on board soon - big freeze coming - granted not to port talbot 

Edited January 1 by Ali1977

[Scott Ingham]

16 minutes ago, Allseasons-Si said:

Look at the second drop in eps ens after the UK high

but noted,...it will stay cold underneath it.

Look at all the snow spikes towards the end as well

[Allseasons-Si]

7 minutes ago, london-snow said:

It’s not much of a drop really isn’t it. 

It is compared to the 00z

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

3 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Look at all the snow spikes towards the end as well

They could also be rain spikes ?

Lets see how tomorrow’s ensembles look before jumping on the ECM bandwagon.

[london-snow]

1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

Look at all the snow spikes towards the end as well

I do hope you are right and appreciate your input, however on the flip of a coin that could be cold rain depending on what you believe. 

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

They could also be rain spikes ?

Lets see how tomorrow’s ensembles look before jumping on the ECM bandwagon.

Yes very true I’ll give you that 

[Harsh Climate]

45 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Thanks.. so -10 uppers will do it.. I prefer a little more to mitigate the modified sea air... but inland with dry air this time of year helps 

I have known easterlies with -10 uppers provide nothing more than a slush fest before.

The problem we have is that the soil/ground is as bout as saturated/warm as it possibly can be. We really need a good week of low minima and hard frosts preceeding any good snow accumulation. 

If the weather was to play out exactly as the Ecm shows I would have doubts about snow settling on low ground giving solid accumulations, I would expect some melting in between precipitation or even during it until the ground is cold and firm enough to allow it. Some slushy coverings possible, more so on certain surfaces.

All hot air though to be fair not even worth worrying about just yet.

Still think we will get the slow burner rather than the pot of gold at first attempt!

Unless Ecm gains greater traction overnight (it may do) I would expect no more than a few flurries in East, more especially in Southeast and Kent where more organised mix sleet/snow possible 7/8th before perhaps more substantial cold/blocking within a week after.

All jackanory at the moment, just my take on proceedings.

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, london-snow said:

I do hope you are right and appreciate your input, however on the flip of a coin that could be cold rain depending on what you believe. 

Again yeah that’s a good point!

[Daniel*]

Have a feeling the modelling reverting back well we’re seeing more a “partial split” to vortex is helping if we look at 50mb on ECM 12z we can clearly see a dividing line over Greenland and pole, one segment goes to west of Greenland in Canada ideally it would be further away but it’s not immediately troublesome and another near Kara sea which helps with cold air availability in Eurasia. The blocking in North Atlantic is mostly undisturbed it’s a little wonder the projection is for prolonged -NAO conditions.

 

indeed the 12z EPS has the -NAO going strongly negative near mid month… it all makes for a terrific period of model watching.

 

[johncam]

22 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

Absolutely insane set of ens from ecm.

I think @Scott Ingham has stated recently if this don't come off he will run naked around his town..hang on mate I'm a coming with ya  

[carinthian]

3 hours ago, carinthian said:

Yes , I think its a good run. Certainly from a drier prospective . I return to Austria tomorrow and the prospects of a large Italian low circulation to form next weekend is already exciting winter cold fans after such a mild start to the season for many. It is expected to last for quite a few days with a extensive colder flow along its Northern flank  , so the high formation over the British Isles unlikely to sink further and could easily relocate to Scandinavia or retrogress  with a new high cell formation. Saturday may have a surprise in store for snow starved SE of England.

Last one from me before a early flight back tomorrow morning from Arlanda Airport . Currently -8c in Stockholm with snow flurries. Frigid air now making progress across The Baltic from Finland where temps presently down to -36c in the interior. I just wonder what effect that will have eventually across the British Isles when you lot eventually tap into the NEly next weekend ? Thinking of upgrades in the models for potential cold ❄. 

 Good night.

C

[Nick2373]

9 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Are you just trying to get a bite  The GEFS will be on board soon - big freeze coming - granted not to port talbot 

??? Ummm nope I’m just saying what I’m seeing I’ve been posting on here for many years, what I’ve learned is that even past 5 days is FI. Be at your own peril getting all excited about something that can go 50/50 from the 11th onwards seasoned people should know this. Do you really think you can call that after the 11th ? Remember two years ago when we were looking at a winter wonderland only for it to be taken away at 24hrs. It’s not set in stone and I should imagine the models will look different tomorrow for better or worse. 

[Derecho]

Meteociel.fr - Tableaux ECMWF-ENS

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

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La météo en temps réel et prévisions météo pour la France, Observations météo, modèles numériques et logiciels météo (GFS, ECMWF, UKMO, GEM, AROME, ARPEGE, JMA)

 

27 of the 50 EC members see 850s below -10C at some point!

 

[damianslaw]

47 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

EC46 update, Cold two weeks after 8 of January. Persistent anomaly in the NW/ Greenland. 

MJO in 20 days in the direction of 6. 

Only been taking cursory glances at the models over the christmas period. I suspected it wouldn't be until the New Year, more clarity over direction for core of Jan may materialise. We are losing the atlantic onslaught this week, and it is now a cert high pressure will take hold by the end of the week.

The ECM ensembles show core heights to our NW, this will enable cold pooling at the surface under the weak Jan sun. With cooler SST's now and minimal solar heating, we are hitting optimal time if year for very cold air to settle over the UK under slack conditions. Throw in any snow cover and we can quickly see sub freezing means and maxima set in.