Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[Turnedoutniceagain]

1 hour ago, Rob 79812010 said:

Blimey, best charts for years, bbc and met and netweather forecasts all positive, so much potential. Shouldn't we be more excited?? Or are we hedging our bets as we've 'seen it all before'. Thing is, we have seen it all before with the models but often find the forecasters don't buy into it. They are now!!!

I'm still skeptical. I remember the great E'ly of Jan/Feb' 2006 - potentially an event to rival 1963 - a monster that literally disappeared from the charts with 36hrs to go. I'm still having counselling. 

[Beanz]

18 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Regulars on here know I'm not prone to overstatement but this really is the most wintry T300 ECM mean chart I have ever seen. Incredible signal at that range. I had to check about 10 times to make sure it was the mean and not an outlier member!

And the mean is certainly the one to keep an eye on as we know.  It’s been remarkably consistent 

[Snowy L]

1 hour ago, Rob 79812010 said:

Blimey, best charts for years, bbc and met and netweather forecasts all positive, so much potential. Shouldn't we be more excited?? Or are we hedging our bets as we've 'seen it all before'. Thing is, we have seen it all before with the models but often find the forecasters don't buy into it. They are now!!!

2023 has been a year of cold spells in winter or hot spells in summer disappearing at 5-7 days out. The models have simply cried wolf too many times. And I notice yet again this morning, after about 3 weeks of tracking this cold spell, that we are still saying how amazing the charts are 300 hours out. I won't believe anything until there is snow on the ground.

[Bricriu]

1 hour ago, January Snowstorm said:

What I see as favourite is the high pressure meandering close to our shores for the whole month!! I think there's a real risk that retrogression won't happen and we stay dry. Hope I'm wrong. The Met Office seem to see this as an option.

Nothing factual, just from years ofi watching charts and how they behave. I think to be hanging on charts at 240hrs is folly, no matter what ensembles say. We have seen backtracks before with 100% agreement on Greenland heights. Just highlighting it as a risk right now

There's a reason the Met go 7 days on their outlooks. It's not that their mildies, but they look for accuracy 

The long range forecast of our Met Service isn't the most inspiring to say the least.  It mentions a cold high for week 1 of January,  then the high sinks a bit to allow Atlantic incursions, then the high reassess itself but with above average  temperatures for us.

Edited January 3 by Bricriu

[carinthian]

6 hours ago, carinthian said:

The UKMO fax has that nuisance Low close to the North of Scotland and delays the cold from the east for 24 hours. However, should  move away on Saturday and possibly bring a little snow to the E/SE  as colder air digs in on its transfer.

C

Currently quite a bit of snow falling out over the North Sea between Norway and Scotland as the colder air from the East gets tantalisingly close to Scotland. Unfortunately, the models at the moment hold in situ for a couple of more days ( as highlighted in the above post ). Maybe a correction in this evenings runs ?

C

[Ice Day]

25 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Regulars on here know I'm not prone to overstatement but this really is the most wintry T300 ECM mean chart I have ever seen. Incredible signal at that range. I had to check about 10 times to make sure it was the mean and not an outlier member!

Absolutely MWB. I made the point earlier that both the the ECM and GFS mean have highly unusual strong signals out beyond 10 days. That should settle a few nerves in here (it won't).  

[Methuselah]

Today's GEFS 06Z ensembles. So, some drying-up time: 

    

    

Edited January 3 by Methuselah

[Catacol]

1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

Same old story ! These cold pools are so sensitive to minor changes in the position and orientation of the high .

Still not possible at this point to forecast if there’s going to be any decent convection off the North Sea .

The ECM brought a chance for the far se , the GFS 06 hrs has some flurries for the east .

Hopefully we can get a resolution to this tonight as it’s now around T96 hrs .

 

With the current setup looking like this I doubt it.

Will not resolve until under 72h I reckon. So much dramatic change in a short period of time - tiny, tiny differences in the alignment of the momentum surge and response of the wave break will have big implications a few days down the line. A fascinating watch continues.

[Beanz]

5 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

2023 has been a year of cold spells in winter or hot spells in summer disappearing at 5-7 days out. The models have simply cried wolf too many times. And I notice yet again this morning, after about 3 weeks of tracking this cold spell, that we are still saying how amazing the charts are 300 hours out. I won't believe anything until there is snow on the ground.

A cold spell is almost certain, I don’t think it’s foolish to expect that to happen now given where the models are at and that’s where the excitement is focussed.  Snow isn’t a measure of a cold spell, and I can’t see anybody nailing their flag on that happening, it’s watching brief with low expectations I would suggest…at this stage.  

[The Enforcer]

GEFS 06z P16 retrogresses the HP, but still manages to go mild:

I take some comfort from the range at which this occurs.

Edited January 3 by The Enforcer

[Liam J]

12 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

The long range forecast of our Met Service isn't the most inspiring to say the least.  It mentions a cold high for week 1 of January,  then the high sinks a bit to allow Atlantic incursions, then the high reassess itself but with above average  temperatures for us.

Sorry but this is incorrect…. the forecast to 16th January mentions cold & settled conditions with frosts becoming widespread & severe in time, increased chance of sleet & snow in any unsettled spells later on. Frost, ice & freezing fog all feature. 
 

The next period 17th Jan onwards says an increased chance of colder than average conditions with snow & ice…. 
 

Some wintry looking charts from the 6z GFS going into next week. Persistent Hard frosts, cold days on the way with power & heating demand rocketing up.
 

A lot of water lying around from the very wet weather of late. Be plenty of ice rinks about

 

 

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Liam J said:

Sorry but this is incorrect…. the forecast to 16th January mentions cold & settled conditions with frosts becoming widespread & severe in time, increased chance of sleet & snow in any unsettled spells later on. Frost, ice & freezing fog all feature. 
 

The next period 17th Jan onwards says an increased chance of colder than average conditions with snow & ice…. 
 

Some wintry looking charts from the 6z GFS going into next week. Persistent Hard frosts, cold days on the way with power & heating demand rocketing up.
 

A lot of water lying around from the very wet weather of late. Be plenty of ice rinks about

 

 

The post refs met eireann.

The Irish met.

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, Liam J said:

Sorry but this is incorrect…. the forecast to 16th January mentions cold & settled conditions with frosts becoming widespread & severe in time, increased chance of sleet & snow in any unsettled spells later on. Frost, ice & freezing fog all feature. 
 

The next period 17th Jan onwards says an increased chance of colder than average conditions with snow & ice…. 
 

Some wintry looking charts from the 6z GFS going into next week. Persistent Hard frosts, cold days on the way with power & heating demand rocketing up.
 

A lot of water lying around from the very wet weather of late. Be plenty of ice rinks about

 

 

That's correct Liam from the UK met but bricriu is perhaps stating met Ireland.. But yeh N Ireland would come under the UK met office.

[Liam J]

31 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

The long range forecast of our Met Service isn't the most inspiring to say the least.  It mentions a cold high for week 1 of January,  then the high sinks a bit to allow Atlantic incursions, then the high reassess itself but with above average  temperatures for us.

 

2 minutes ago, Liam J said:

Sorry but this is incorrect…. the forecast to 16th January mentions cold & settled conditions with frosts becoming widespread & severe in time, increased chance of sleet & snow in any unsettled spells later on. Frost, ice & freezing fog all feature. 
 

The next period 17th Jan onwards says an increased chance of colder than average conditions with snow & ice…. 
 

Some wintry looking charts from the 6z GFS going into next week. Persistent Hard frosts, cold days on the way with power & heating demand rocketing up.
 

A lot of water lying around from the very wet weather of late. Be plenty of ice rinks about

 

 

Apologies as I didn’t realise you were talking about the Irish Met service  

[SnowBorder]

43 minutes ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

I'm still skeptical. I remember the great E'ly of Jan/Feb' 2006 - potentially an event to rival 1963 - a monster that literally disappeared from the charts with 36hrs to go. I'm still having counselling. 

Was that the infamous Kettley Easterly? 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Wondering if we are going to see some ‘very different’ runs come 12z post 5-7 days

 

BFTP

Edited January 3 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[sukayuonsensnow]

I'm looking forward to a break from any rain to be honest. 1-2 weeks of sunny, crisp frosty weather I am fine with.

I don't see the UK on the cusp of a cold, snowy spell at the moment to be honest. Looking at the models in recent days it looks like at least a week or so of dry, chilly weather for most, with a few rogue wintry showers (likely rain/sleet/graupel away from high ground) for some eastern areas.

If there is any significant snowfall at all this month it will likely be much later in the month, and even then I wouldn't place all my bets on it.

Still there is a lot of winter left and given how cold it has been just across the North Sea recently it would be unlucky for the UK to miss at least a memorable cold/snowy spell between now and the end of February.

[Bricriu]

11 minutes ago, Liam J said:

 

Apologies as I didn’t realise you were talking about the Irish Met service  

No bother. Let's hope the UKMO is right!

[TSNWK]

8 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Wondering if we are going to see some ‘very different’ runs come 12z post 5-7 days

 

BFTP

What you thinking? Heights into scandi as an option instead of Greenland?

[nick sussex]

This cold pool chasing is turning into the Da Vinci Code .

The latest ECM control run to T144 hrs isn’t as good as the 00hrs run at day 4 but better at day 6 .

 

[cheeky_monkey]

things set to turn very cold here as the Aleutian low gets replaced by the Alaskan High pushing arctic air south into NA 

[winterof79]

yasus christus.

More logs and coal required asap

[TSNWK]

Do we need to be worried with NA going cold and usually that means enhanced jet

[Gowon]

14 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

things set to turn very cold here as the Aleutian low gets replaced by the Alaskan High pushing arctic air south into NA 

Looking forward to it?

[cheeky_monkey]

1 minute ago, Gowon said:

Looking forward to it?

Nope not at all..still i manage to gain an extra 2 months of Autumn i guess