Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[Ali1977]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

I meant better than its earlier efforts, not better than GEM, will clarify.

Thank god for that, it’s cold out there!! 

[ICE COLD]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

If the ECM run is better than the GEM I’ll run round the village naked

I’ll join you Ali

[That ECM]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T120 v GEM:

Pretty close, think this ECM run could be better.  Early stage, mind.

You maybe right but this is the difference imo.

[Paul_1978]

2 minutes ago, That ECM said:

You maybe right but this is the difference imo.

They look pretty much identical?

[Ali1977]

Booooooom that is way better at 144, get in ECM 

Edited January 7 by Ali1977

[Scott Ingham]

ECM coming onboard! Never in doubt was it this winter period

If someone gave you that ECM144 hours chart in October for the second week of January would you take it? I know I would!!

Edited January 7 by Scott Ingham

[Zero Visibility]

Alot better here.

 

 

 

[That ECM]

1 minute ago, Paul_1978 said:

They look pretty much identical?

Mostly but not the low. Anyway ecm is miles better so mikes call was a good one.

[PiscesStar]

6 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

I’ll join you Ali

Is tjere a collective term if we all do it lol

[Mike Poole]

Just now, Mark wheeler said:

Will the lower pressure just north of Iceland make a difference, not there on Gem .

I think that is the remnants of the ECM mess from yesterday’s runs clearing east, it wasn’t really there on the other models.  Much reduced today.  

T144 is much better than recent runs, both in Greenland area, and in terms of getting the retrogression of the UK high going properly.  

[Lukesluckybunch]

Ecm 144!.

[northwestsnow]

Quote

 

Just got in...

UPGRADES

[Day 10]

Definite Improvement, Oz first.

[smith25]

I'm glad it's come back on board 12hrs earlier than expected!

[Ali1977]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Just got in...

UPGRADES

Great afternoon so far - hoping the ECM is a beauty the draw at 144 is mental - from Alaska straight over the pole heading our way - hopefully

[Harsh Climate]

2 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Ecm 144!.

168 should be a peach!

 

[Zero Visibility]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Just got in...

UPGRADES

Oh yes, your sofa doesn't require you behind it this evening!!

[Ali1977]

That’ll do

 

Prolonged cold coming on this run - pole heights being fed from both sides. 

Edited January 7 by Ali1977

[tight isobar]

Ec 12-168… ripe .. 

[ribster]

1 hour ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

You've basically got one week to top up your oil tanks, log stores and freezers. 

I thought 168/24 was 7, some Charlie was posting that it's 9! Glad I didn't order my coal on the back of that!

[TSNWK]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

That’ll do

Improvement.. still heading off a little east… one correction required in morning I think…

[sheikhy]

So easy to see whats causing the issues at 168 hours!!gfs ecm cold pool northwest of greenland lingers about so dont get proper ridging into the pole!!!gem ukmo slide that same cold pool into the main vortex north east of us therefore cleaner ridging earlier!!im goin with gfs/,ecm!!

[Paul_1978]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

That’ll do

 

Prolonged cold coming on this run - pole heights being fed from both sides. 

Prolonged cold…. are you sure? Bold statement!

[Froze were the Days]

Looks like the HP is slipping southwards by 168z...actually thought it would be better after the improvement at 144. Still an improvement on the 0z run so a step back to GEM/UKMO.

[Tim Bland]

ECM has flurries for the south tomorrow could be 2cm I’m some areas …