Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[ScottSnow]

Just now, sheikhy said:

Look at this belter of am ecm06z control at 144 hours!!!.....

 

It seems like the models are ‘upgrading’ the coming cold spell in terms of potency and duration, after the slight wobble a couple of days ago.

Definitely very exciting model watching coming up.

[Zero Visibility]

Direction of travel clear now, especially with the upgrades we are seeing in the models as well as Exeter taking their time with next week's update. Exciting times coming up surely!

[Jason M]

3 minutes ago, ScottSnow said:

It seems like the models are ‘upgrading’ the coming cold spell in terms of potency and duration, after the slight wobble a couple of days ago.

Definitely very exciting model watching coming up.

I'd agree with this. Over the last couple of days we had been seeing a steady downgrade of the whole set up. This morning has steadied the ship 

 

[nick sussex]

12 minutes ago, seabreeze86 said:

Lovely upgrade from the 6z ECM , expecting fireworks tonight 

A nice upgrade . The bulge in ne Greenland is replaced by a straighter northerly flow . This makes a big difference, even if a shortwave forms it’s more likely to track more south .

[terrier]

Think the net weather servers may need an upgrade for tonight if the Ecm6z is anything to go by. The touch paper has been well and truly lit I think. ️

[rwtwm]

This is the ECM 6z mean for Sunday! Nearly as good as some of the fantasy charts from late last week. We're now rapidly approaching the reliable with this. I'd say we're now in a position where the worst case scenario for early next week is underwhelming, rather than an absolute bust. 

 

 

[Drifter]

Upgrade from icon at 120

[Derecho]

One thing to note about some of the output today is that I've seen some ensembles bring in the northerly as early as Saturday evening. UKMO is my favourite from today so far in the more reliable time range. This is because it's keen to set the northerly up a bit earlier compared to other output.

Worth looking out for in this evenings output on what has been another encouraging day so far. 00z's haven't lived up to their bad name today so far have they?

[Ali1977]

Icon already an upgrade at 120, coeaner heights Is everyone ready for an afternoon of epic charts - because that’s what’s coming.

Winter - it’s on its way ️️️

[Mike Poole]

Good start to the 12s on the ICON, T144 and we have the cold in place:

Not quite as clean as the ECM 6z.

But the start of an afternoon of upgrades, I agree with @Ali1977 above, I think the models have sorted out whatever was bothering them and some clarity will ensure - in a good way.

Edited January 8 by Mike Poole

[bluearmy]

Icon closing off the Arctic at day 6 and also a slightly bigger ridge into the flow 

 Neither are a plus imo bit sometimes it’s worth seeing how a couple of less good signals affects the overall evolution 

Edited January 8 by bluearmy

[Decemberof2010]

4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Icon already an upgrade at 120, coeaner heights Is everyone ready for an afternoon of epic charts - because that’s what’s coming.

Winter - it’s on its way ️️️

Mmm yes I agree, but to me a pretty underwhelming MO update for next week. Although the way the media go totally OTT it’s hardly suprising. 

[frosty ground]

 

the wave should deepen in the next few runs, the high being to far east at this  point with a bigger bum keeps it settled over the UK 

looks like a timing issue with the wave, mild sector more noticeable but time for this to be closed out by ICON and other models 

Edited January 8 by frosty ground

[sheikhy]

And theres that little cold pool north greenland on icon and again it stops better ridging into the pole!!it doesnt get absorbed west or east and just sits there for ages!!!still good icon but could have looked so much better!!

[Gowon]

9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Icon closing off the Arctic at day 6 and also a slightly bigger ridge into the flow 

 Neither are a plus imo bit sometimes it’s worth seeing how a couple of less good signals affects the overall evolution 

It just about made it in the end.

[Cold Winter Night]

ICON is yet another illustration of how critical the interaction between Greenland High-Arctic High-Alaskan High is.

We might remain in the dark about what will really happen there for quite a long time. The Arctic remains a problem area for the models after all, with only few observations and poor satellite coverage.

Edited January 8 by Cold Winter Night

[Continental Climate]

5 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

 

the wave should deepen in the next few runs, the high being to far east at this  point with a bigger bum keeps it settled over the UK 

A good chart no doubt but I think many on here will have hoped for better. We need that high to ridge further north both for longevity and severity. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

7 minutes ago, Decemberof2010 said:

Mmm yes I agree, but to me a pretty underwhelming MO update for next week. Although the way the media go totally OTT it’s hardly suprising. 

Looks the same to me with ntlys and snow showers...then cold weather the most likely with continued risk of snow and ice..gonna be fun when weather systems attempt to push in. But like you say the media get hold of this and go mad and the end result is the met trying to be a tad Conservative! It's there necks on the line don't forget.

[feb1991blizzard]

9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Icon closing off the Arctic at day 6 and also a slightly bigger ridge into the flow 

 Neither are a plus imo bit sometimes it’s worth seeing how a couple of less good signals affects the overall evolution 

Still a cracker though in short term with that trough forming North of Scotland in a deep arctic airmass, longjevity might be a problem but somewhere gets a pasting first though.

[frosty ground]

Just now, Continental Climate said:

A good chart no doubt but I think many on here will have hoped for better. We need that high to ridge further north both for longevity and severity. 

Not sure either depend on the artic high of course it helps had the ICON gone out another 24 hours the deep cold would have been dragged down by the developing low

[That ECM]

9 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

Looks the same to me with ntlys and snow showers...then cold weather the most likely with continued risk of snow and ice..gonna be fun when weather systems attempt to push in. But like you say the media get hold of this and go mad and the end result is the met trying to be a tad Conservative! It's there necks on the line don't forget.

The key words are low confidence. A little left, a little right, little higher/lower etc and the outcome difference is potentially huge.

Look at the various output over the last few days and the swings in that. Makes for great viewing and luckily we don’t need to make a forecast. 

I’d suggest upto T144 analyse deeply beyond observe for fun.

[Scott Ingham]

1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM 6z control, T144:

Clean as a whistle, this one!  Wallop!

This is very very nearly back to the nirvana charts shown 5/6 days ago and goes to show how it’s important not to be reeled in by mild blips in operational runs when the means were rock solid! 
 

I think disruptive snow is a strong possibility some exciting charts to look at when we get to the back end of this week and we get snow charts in range!

[Day 10]

4 minutes ago, That ECM said:

The key words are low confidence. A little left, a little right, little higher/lower etc and the outcome difference is potentially huge.

Look at the various output over the last few days and the swings in that. Makes for great viewing and luckily we don’t need to make a forecast. 

I’d suggest upto T144 analyse deeply beyond observe for fun.

And from there, snow chances from 48hrs or lower.

[frosty ground]

slight shift east for the U.K. high at this point with more shenanigans with the Azores low, the initial northerly won’t be as good as the 06z run by my reckoning.

[GokouD]

39 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Icon closing off the Arctic at day 6 and also a slightly bigger ridge into the flow 

 Neither are a plus imo bit sometimes it’s worth seeing how a couple of less good signals affects the overall evolution