Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[Hatewarmth]

1 hour ago, Battleground Snow said:

Can see the difference in the icon ukmo and ecm v the gfs in the Atlantic.

The low in the Atlantic gets boxed in, while on the gfs it escapes out.

Blocking is more robust when it's kept blocked in 

Does this not mean there is less chance of fronts attacking from the SW leading to more of a cold but dry outlook?

[northwestsnow]

Control 18z v 12z

168

[Johnp]

It’s actually a deceptively cold run (but boring). 

Not a single front crosses the country - and after enough time I think a Scandi High would appear. 

[blizzard81]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Control 18z is an upgrade on its frankly woeful 12z

mean looks very similar to 12z 

Both 156hrs..

I notice (I think) nobody mentioned that awful Gfs 12z control run in the relatively early timeframe of 5 to 6 days out. I just hope that run will be a dim and distant memory in 8 hours time and not a harbinger of what is actually to come. 

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Control 18z v 12z

168

Not control runs lol. We've all done it though  

[Wold Topper]

Colds on its way... where will it snow? Whom knows for sure? But it will.... soon, so chill peeps , turns tablet off, until tomorrow

[lassie23]

3 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Sorry but Iv just had a look on here and haven’t got a clue what’s going on. Honestly that many conflicting stuff on here.

from what Iv gathered after looking at the models is high pressure pretty much taking over for most of the week and then some sort of cold northerly with chances of snow. After that nobody knows.

so with all the upgrades and downgrades in here I’m off to bed

The problem is every model run is analyzed to death and this causes some posters to panic too quickly, whilst others wait for more data. The result is conflicting views like, 'I am not worried yet, everything looks good still', to, I don't like where this is going, the cold spell looks doomed',lol

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, Johnp said:

It’s actually a deceptively cold run (but boring). 

Not a single front crosses the country - and after enough time I think a Scandi High would appear. 

The sort of run that would test the patience of a saint?

[Ventnor Viking]

4 minutes ago, Johnp said:

It’s actually a deceptively cold run (but boring). 

Not a single front crosses the country - and after enough time I think a Scandi High would appear. 

I agree, plenty of ice days in there too. I was also looking at the placement of that high and thinking it would likely be a scandi high. 

That said, this run initially pushes the milder air south towards northern France within the reliable so thats a positive and anything after the 5 days will and has constantly changed. On to the 0z 

Edited January 8 by Ventnor Viking

[Bristawl Si]

Chaos in the Strat, causes chaos in the model output for a while.

I'm sure Ian Ferguson, when he used to post in here, said so (in so many words).

Prob worth taking into account all this week when viewing the models.

[Woldsedge]

5 minutes ago, Johnp said:

It’s actually a deceptively cold run (but boring). 

Not a single front crosses the country - and after enough time I think a Scandi High would appear. 

I think there’s many folk that are currently knee deep in floodwater that would be grateful for that

[MATTWOLVES 3]

It appears many lose there heads on here at least once a day with the det runs especially.

It must be bloody murder for your partners when your not liking a particular run.

What I'm not convinced about is the ens that show a very strong pv later this month,its currently in very weakened state with some evidence of further pressure being placed upon it very soon 

I read an interesting article from Amy Butler regarding the recent ssw that didn't really split and reverse and it appears they seem unsure as to why it went wrong! Also points out the fact it stays weak for another couple of weeks with the scope for it to become hit again further down the line.

I will include a screenshot of the tweet so you can direct yourself for the full read up.

Ecm ens do show a fair amount of cold runs out to the 21st of the month..but tonight it again looks like the usual wobbles from the dets especially....wouldn't at all be suprised to see yet another few sterling runs tomorrow.

Don't lose sleep over it folks..we will be rolling again.

This should lift the spirits...strong pv my backside

@blizzard81I've been scratching my head thar much me hairs fallen out

Edited January 8 by MATTWOLVES 3

[Battleground Snow]

7 minutes ago, Hatewarmth said:

Does this not mean there is less chance of fronts attacking from the SW leading to more of a cold but dry outlook?

All the models toy with moving the low east at some point, if it does get near the UK you want to make sure you have the cold air as south as possible by then, hence why the initial Greenland block orientation is important,

This is the closest  gefs member I could see to the icon, I've ran it on to see what might happen.

[GSP]

Still, there could be some good skating on flooded fields.

 

[blizzard81]

Anyway.... The cold is here NOW! It actually 'felt' like January outside today. And no, I'm not talking about the January's of the last 25 years. It was like the January's of old. 

[Beanz]

18 minutes ago, GSP said:

All fizzling out on this run, and no surprise whatsoever it’s setting itself back towards default mild.

With such changes in the charts and still so far out, still hopeful another evolution is being sought so quite what we will be looking at as the day progresses tomorrow?

 

I’m seeing day time air temps, in the south of the country down to below -10.  You have a strange idea of ‘mild’

[blizzard81]

4 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

It appears many lose there heads on here at least once a day with the det runs especially.

It must be bloody murder for your partners when your not liking a particular run.

What I'm not convinced about is the ens that show a very strong pv later this month,its currently in very weakened state with some evidence of further pressure being placed upon it very soon 

I read an interesting article from Amy Butler regarding the recent ssw that didn't really split and reverse and it appears they seem unsure as to why it went wrong! Also points out the fact it stays weak for another couple of weeks with the scope for it to become hit again further down the line.

I will include a screenshot of the tweet so you can direct yourself for the full read up.

Ecm ens do show a fair amount of cold runs out to the 21st of the month..but tonight it again looks like the usual wobbles from the dets especially....wouldn't at all be suprised to see yet another gee sterling runs tomorrow.

Don't lose sleep over it folks..we will be rolling again.

This should lift the spirits...strong pv my backside

That's interesting about Amy Butler mate. It really was a last minute climbdown on that SSW. If she is scratching her head then we really are in trouble lol. 

[Hatewarmth]

27 minutes ago, Wold Topper said:

Its one run for flips sake, why do some revel in despondency? I bet some of you are in the kitchen at partys!

Exactly. Some people in here look at one op run and want to kill themselves

 

Remember it runs 50 times not 1 so as always see where it sit. It’s just a variation of the SAME pattern abc

[Metwatch]

Would be another dry January if the GFS 18z came to reality with little rain in the near future. Very different to 12z, so it's clear they are struggling with a lot of uncertainity / 'chaos' towards the end of the month, but to be expected when looking at operational runs alone. The 4th week I reckon will still become more westerly driven for the north west Europe following next week's chill. Ensembles fairly supportive of that.

 

MJO heads into a less favourable part of the tropics in the coming days for high latitude blocking, and we have had that fall in torque / AAM tendency at the end of last month. The MJO does looks quite promising into February going into the western Pacific, with a pretty darn strong signal, but that could also trend the other way, so caution is needed when looking at the modelled progression and strength of tropical convection. EPS has some differences to the GEFS:

Monitoring the strat as well, with weakening winds heading into mid month potentially.

A side note, but we do seem to be picking up a sort of drier Januaries trend. Since 2017, the only January that I would class as wet around here is 2021. While recently, Octobers and December have been constantly wet. Aprils have become quite dry too, but 2023 wasn't as much. Probably just a coincidence...

Edited January 8 by Metwatch

[feb1991blizzard]

9 minutes ago, Metwatch said:

Would be another dry January if the GFS 18z came to reality with little rain in the near future. 

A side note, but we do seem to be picking up a sort of drier Januaries trend. 

remember - we've already had 50mm to the 6th Jan, that is half, i can't see Jan coming out below average now, i went for 87mm in the competition, wishing i'd gone for well over 100mm now.

Edited January 8 by feb1991blizzard

[Metwatch]

7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

remember - we've already had 50mmto the 6th Jan, that is half, i can't see Jan coming out below average now, i went for 87mm in the competition, wishing i'd gone for well over 100mm now.

Indeed, but if somehow the rest of the month was to stay very dry, we'd end below average. The last week - 10 days more likely than not we'll see rain bearing low pressure systems return so probably reach the monthly average by then or even go above it. Nothing is certain though after mid month regarding exact precipitation amounts.

Edited January 8 by Metwatch

[The Enforcer]

Taking the GEFS12z and GEFS18z on face value, the percentage of ending up with what I would describe as being a 'stinker' run (significantly above the mean by the middle of the run without sustained recovery thereafter e.g. 12z control & 18z P20) remains about the same for both suites - 22%.

[booferking]

11 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:

Taking the GEFS12z and GEFS18z on face value, the percentage of ending up with what I would describe as being a 'stinker' run (significantly above the mean by the middle of the run without sustained recovery thereafter e.g. 12z control & 18z P20) remains about the same for both suites - 22%.

Yea trend not good and zonal winds on the uptake quite quickly after the near reversal seen this all before doesn’t bode well cast yourself back to last cold spell end Nov start Dec the SPV reorganised itself and the rest was history one of the wettest December on record.

[ICE COLD]

Is anyone here ? The 00z Icon to my eye looks decent at T144 . 

[Kasim Awan]

4 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Is anyone here ? The 00z Icon to my eye looks decent at T144 . 

ICON isn't great. Cold struggling with push of milder uppers not far.

[ICE COLD]

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

ICON isn't great. Cold struggling with push of milder uppers not far.

Yer looked not too bad early on and ended rubbish .