Moans, ramps and banter

[SunSean]

Impeccable day again here! Glad to report that the new met office forecast is way more accurate than the old version The old one had the overcast symbol for the whole week and was thankfully, completely wrong

[Summer8906]

Haven't looked at the models for a few days, but next week is far worse than it was looking a few days ago. Looked like high pressure might have re-appeared but evidently not.

Exceedingly dull and wet weather back again from Monday, it seems - looks like May 2024 will be yet another very wet and very dull month overall looking at the models.

Not even any northerlies on offer which might mitigate the poor weather a bit.

The fourth very poor month of 2024, and the fourth on the trot by the looks of things. Very reminiscent of June 2016 which also had a temporary fine spell (at the same time of the month) in-amongst constant dull, wet weather.

I think there's little doubt now that the mid-year to mid-year July 2023-June 2024 will be the wettest such period on record, by some margin.

What do people think now about June? Really pinning my hopes on June now, if June doesn't deliver then we're getting into the second half of summer and autumn, which are rarely especially great.

 

Edited May 10 by Summer8906

[I remember Atlantic 252]

could start very misty in my area, SE breeze seems to be the worst for north sea mist, be wary if it's a horrible start those in central areas N Midlands

[Nick L]

 Summer8906 I don't agree with that assessment of next week at all. It's certainly turning cooler (temperatures back to average from this well above average spell) and more unsettled, but it's definitely not looking "exceedingly dull". There will still be a fair amount of sunshine between showers.

Meanwhile, we're enjoying a solid week of very good weather. Just enjoy that instead of focusing on June!!

Edited May 10 by Nick L

[Summer8906]

 Nick L Was making the comment because the winds are mostly from SW-ly point, and with low pressure that normally means a lot of cloud - often quite heavy cloud - and damp weather in this location. High dewpoints, meaning little scope for the rainfall to evaporate off. The progression reminds me of June 2016, and that month, after the 10th there was little in the way of meaningful sunshine until July.

Also that low seems to want to hang around for at least a week.

I would be more optimistic if the wind was going round to the NW or N and a properly cool, dry, low-dewpoint airmass was getting in.

I hope I am proved wrong though.

 

Edited May 10 by Summer8906

[CryoraptorA303]

 Summer8906 It's far too early to say that yet based on a 2-3 day long minor breakdown. I really don't see any catastrophic stuff in there, it's looking like Sunday will have a bit of a thundery break, Monday will be showery and Tuesday a few showers here and there. After that looks very benign to be honest.

The majority of May to come isn't even within forecasting realms yet, for all we know this could be a record warm May in the making and the second half sees a previously unimaginable heatwave with x consecutive days above 30°C and the first tropical May night on record a la September last year. I somewhat doubt that outcome without evidence to back it up but it could just as easily be inoffensive and settled in the last two weeks.

Since Monday it has been very settled for most, enjoy the warm spell that we have now instead of dreading a minor breakdown next week. This week alone will have significantly contributed to monthly sunshine hours. A settled final two weeks to the month would see this May be confidently sunnier than average and the first month to be so since January. There are definitely far worse ways the first ~2 weeks of May could have gone.

Edited May 10 by CryoraptorA303

[Summer8906]

 CryoraptorA303 What do you make of the model thread though where GFS UKV forecasts of just 13C for Mon and 14C for Tues are given for this area at 1500Z? That is around 4-5C below the normal, assuming the normal for mid-May is around 18.

Given the airmass isn't cool, that would suggest to me pretty heavy cloud and pretty persistent rain for those two days.

Also GFS seems to want to keep the low around for the whole of next week, with the next possibility of vaguely settled weather being after the 20th. It doesn't seem to be a 2-3 day breakdown at the moment - though it was looking like that for a time on Monday or Tuesday (hence my disappointment today at seeing the models for next week, having not looked for a while!)

Edited May 10 by Summer8906

[markyo]

 B87 In your opinion.

[CryoraptorA303]

1 minute ago, Summer8906 said:

What do you make of the model thread though where GFS forecasts of just 13C for Mon and 14C for Tues are given for this area at 1500Z? That is around 4-5C below the normal, assuming the normal for mid-May is around 18.

Given the airmass isn't cool, that would suggest to me pretty heavy cloud and pretty persistent rain for those two days.

It's high spring in the UK, such weather is bound to happen at some point. I don't think the rainfall totals from this blast are going to be particularly high. After going through two months of such persistently wet weather and another month that failed to see a serious improvement (but still improved), two more days of showers is hardly anything.

2 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

Also GFS seems to want to keep the low around for the whole of next week, with the next possibility of vaguely settled weather being after the 20th.

Who really cares at this point, the 20th is so far away in forecasting world that it's not worth thinking about. It took until last weekend for this week's spell to be virtually confirmed. Tomorrow the GFS will probably say something substantially different for the 15th onward.

Realistically it's still May and in this country we have to wait until mid-June onwards to have a highish chance of settled conditions. Spring months with no cooler interruptions are essentially unheard of - Even April 2011, May 1992, May 2008 and May 2018 had their brief moments of cooler intervals.

[Summer8906]

 CryoraptorA303 Perhaps, though my point is that the airmass early next week is not cool, it looks "mild" (I realise that's more of a winter term) to me, being SWly.

So by default one might expect temps around average, but instead, as I said UKV is offering 4-5 below, which suggests to me either a notably cold airmass (which it isn't), heavy cloud, fairly persistent rain, or some combination of all.

Take your point about the models maybe improving though. But I have little doubt that Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday will all be pretty miserable, dull and possibly very wet. Thursday onwards shows the low weakening somewhat so more scope for being better than expected.

Here, July and August tend to be fairly meh at best and poor at worst most years  - which is why I'm really relying on the late spring and early summer to deliver the goods.

Edited May 10 by Summer8906

[SakuraOwl]

I'm not against this heatwave. I think it's a perfect balance as  it allows nights to be cooler where it's possible to sleep. I'll admit that you will require an AC Unit or potentially just open your window. The only downside to opening the window is that it allows spiders & so many other bugs to enter your home. Once again, I've noticed that fleas are dominating the world. I've seen it become widespread news that fleas are seriously becoming more of an invasive species. Thankfully, I don't have to deal with fleas but just because you don't have any animals doesn't mean you are free from them. When you walk outside, you may potentially gather fleas on your shoes. It's too late to do anything about this creature. It's honestly just annoying that they strive when it's super hot or even when the humidity changes...

[WYorksWeather]

 Summer8906 I think with average 850s and a fair bit of cloud and rain around you would expect maxes to be suppressed a little, but perhaps a near-balancing rise by night. At this time of year averages are pushed up by sunny days - we're probably past the point where you can reliably achieve average daytime temperatures alongside cloud and rain without a warmer than average airmass.

In terms of next week I would expect Tuesday to be a better day than Monday as the rain is more of the showery variety, which should give a greater chance of some more pleasant interludes between showers.

[Alderc 2.0]

 CryoraptorA303

 

It’s bound to happen you say? It’s been happening solid for almost the entire spring so far….

[SakuraOwl]

My theory is that June 2024 is going to be a very warm month. Will it be as insane as last year's blast of heat? Well... I want to say no but I also think this summer is going to be too warm for some. I know many have already complained about the small heatwave that's happening now. To those I say that it's not that bad. You only need to tolerate it for a weekend now. Either way, I think we are all too sensitive. Maybe not all. I just think heat isn't that bad. It's the humidity that you are actually complaining about. Because the human body can't function properly when the humidity changes. It's just proof that we weren't built for this weather.

[Alderc 2.0]

 SakuraOwl comedians are out tonight - heatwave, air conditioning

[Summer8906]

 WYorksWeather Yes, I noted your comments on the model thread, though the temp is still showing as just 14C here on Tuesday which would presumably require some pretty significant cloud and fairly persistent rain even then.

Preparing for all of Mon-Wed to be pretty miserable. I hope I'm wrong but cyclonic SW-ly and sub-1000mb pressure almost always equals poor.

Perhaps some hope Thursday onwards that 1) the low will weaken, 2) retrogress west, 3) progress eastwards, or some combination of 1) plus one of 2) or 3).

Edited May 10 by Summer8906

[Mapantz]

Another stunning day! 23.4°C - highest temp so far.  

I've got quite a lot done in the garden during this past few days. Concreting tomorrow, to give it time to harden before the weather changes.

[WYorksWeather]

 Summer8906 Hopefully not 2 followed by 3!

[Summer8906]

 WYorksWeather Indeed, most of the first 6 days of May seemed to feature a low moving east-west, then west-east, then east-west again. Consequently all days except Sat were pretty dull and miserable!

[WYorksWeather]

 Summer8906 Yep - one of those periods that was far worse in the south. Up here this May so far gets about 8/10 rating from me through a combination of slightly lower expectations and also that the weather on many days has genuinely been better - we've had a lot more dry and very mild or warm-ish days than you have.

Obviously next week will likely drop that rating some.

[LetItSnow!]

I haven't checked for sure (I will probably do another model rundown post in the main) but I'd imagine mid-May will probably be sunnier than charts may suggest. Meandering lows can often breed sunny spells. Having said that though I imagine there will be frequent bands of rain and showers, thunderstorms too. I imagine very high totals will be recorded but perhaps somewhat localised. Widespread enough that it will probably be a wetter than average, but not that everywhere is going to need a rowboat. That's the fickle nature of low pressure systems in the warmer half of the year, especially when they weaken.

[Azazel]

 CryoraptorA303 it’s been happening for the entirety of spring minus the past few days

I’m calling it now, based on nothing but pessimism and a hunch, summer is going to be a bag of w**k. 
 

Something has changed.

Also Monday doesn’t look showery here it looks kinda like the Monday or Tuesday or whenever it was just gone that was absolutely dreadful here. To get two of these ‘days’ in a the space of a week is very upsetting 

[Summer8906]

 WYorksWeather Here I'd say it's approaching 5/10 here, with, so far, 5 poor days and 4 good ones (Tues and Wed had rather humid starts, and cloudy on Wed, though improved as the day went on). So by Sunday the good days might outnumber the poor ones, briefly, before the poor days take the lead again next week.

Very few "average" days of a bit of sun, a bit of cloud and average temps yet though.

Edited May 10 by Summer8906

[LetItSnow!]

 Azazel The only problem there is just like when some people say something had changed in 2018 and 2022. This spell will end and it would surprise me if this forum wasn't talking about abnormally dry condtions by 2025-2027. 

[Azazel]

 LetItSnow! i hope you’re right but quote me in 2030 when we are all living on barges