Moans, ramps and banter

[Jonnoramo87]

I hope we get to 30C soon, fed of these lousy temps of 19C so boring

[Catbrainz]

What has caused the poor weather in the past 6 months or so? From my knowledge it’s down to El Niño mostly. 

[Summer8906]

 Wynn D Woo It definitely has here. But we are in one of the very mildest areas of the country.

 

[In Absence of True Seasons]

 Alderc 2.0 the predicted settled HP spells is now....NEXT WEEK!

The eternal "10 days out" like a dog chasing a bone on an ever moving string lol.

 

[In Absence of True Seasons]

 Catbrainz Realistically the poor weather started last March, after the sunny and dry Feb. Every single month since then has been predominantly dull, wet and mild aside from June 2023, the Sept 2023 heatwave, and Jan 2024 (saved purely by that week-long cold snap). 

I can't recall where I read it, but apparently this has been one of the wettest protracted 18-month spells on record.

[danm]

Still feels warm out there. A proper balmy, late Spring evening at last. Still 19c at 8pm.
 

Feel for those in parts of the SW, really caught the short straw over the last couple of days. 

[Summer8906]

 Jonnoramo87 though 19C is actually about 2-3C warmer than average for the start of May.

It's more the eternal cloud and rain and lack of sustained fine weather that's arguably the more urgent problem.

Edited May 1 by Summer8906

[In Absence of True Seasons]

 danm Last 2/3 days have actually been far better than originally predicted.

Friday looking increasingly woeful unfortunately but who knows, may also end up being better than forecast. 

[Summer8906]

2 hours ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

Such is the consequence of climate change though, we are going to see less traditionally seasonal weather in this part of the world as the century goes on, instead seeing much more autumnal behaviour in what is supposed to be winter and early spring, and faster transitions to summer-like temperatures without the consistency of summer. This is likely to have profound impacts on flora and timings of bloom, with the autumn fall occuring later (it wasn't fully complete until early December here last year) and the spring bloom being far less consistent than in the past.

Which is an awful shame and, if it does turn out this way, will basically make the UK a country with little in the way of aesthetic pleasure going for it at all.

Frequent cloudy, damp weather with temps varying little across the year, no winter to speak of, no beauty in the spring, cloudy and damp summers, and a delayed autumn from the POV of foliage means there's little to get excited about aesthetically, sadly.

It's enough to make you nostalgic for the 2010s! (which weren't great, but not this bad!)

At least the period from 2015-21 which often had fairly poor summers, had a good number of decent springs and some winters which were vaguely close to normal at times. 2023 and 2024 so far have been notable for poor weather at all seasons, aside from the occasional fine spell.

Edited May 1 by Summer8906

[Don]

Humid this evening and feels more like summer than spring!

[Jonnoramo87]

 Catbrainz more like 11 months

[Summer8906]

 Don I know what you mean. What this evening reminds me of is something like June 2012: yuck.

Perhaps that's an improvement on it being autumnal or wintry - but then again perhaps it's not.

[Don]

3 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

It's enough to make you nostalgic for the 2010s! (which weren't great, but not this bad!)

Autumn to spring could well become 'the wet but mild season', whilst summer could be hot and dry moving forward?  No one really knows just how climate change will affect our part of the world, except it will likely continue to warm!

[Jonnoramo87]

 Summer8906 True, I would be able to tolerate so much rain more if we had plenty of sunshine to go with it, but this combination of dull/wet and absense of fine weather is an absolute joke

[Northwest NI]

Huge temperature differential across the island of Ireland tomorrow , 20+ and sunny in north v 7 and rain in south. I’d imagine that will be mirrored in Great Britain.

 

Edited May 1 by Northwest NI

[Summer8906]

 Don I'm very sceptical about hot and dry summers in the future as that hasn't been the direction of travel recently.

If we think about such summers since the 70s we have 1975, 1976, 1983, 1984, 1989, 1990, 1994, 1995, 2003, 2006, 2013, 2014, 2018 and 2022 - so they haven't really become more frequent. About once every four years seems to be the typical frequency.

 

Edited May 1 by Summer8906

[Don]

2 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

Perhaps that's an improvement on it being autumnal or wintry - but then again perhaps it's not.

TBH (and this is just my personal preference) if it's going to be wet, I would rather it be of the cool nature and not humid like this evening.

[Summer8906]

 Don I know what you mean in many ways.

Cold and wet makes it feel like the last throes of the winter just gone, which psychologically makes you think there are many months of spring and summer ahead.

Wet and mild makes it feel like a bad spell in summer, which makes you think autumn isn't too far away. In addition as @markyo says I agree the air feels more unhealthy.

 

Edited May 1 by Summer8906

[markyo]

 Don Totally agree, this evening has that awful humid stench to it, very unpleasant. 

[Summer8906]

 Northwest NI Must be a fair chance May will be an 11th wet month on the trot after this event, which sounds like it could be quite prolonged, and a risk of further wet weather in the next few days.

Even if 2 of the 3 remaining weeks after the coming weekend are dry and just one is wet, I suspect we could end up with yet another wet month.

Edited May 1 by Summer8906

[In Absence of True Seasons]

 Don I more or less agree. Milder, wetter, cloudier Nov to March, then drier and sunnier April to Sept (as a general trend, obviously outlier years and periods will exist). 

Perhaps we (or at least parts of England) will eventually become more akin to something like Northern Spain or Northern Portugal - maritime type climate but warmer.

[CryoraptorA303]

18 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

I'm very sceptical about hot and dry summers in the future as that hasn't been the direction of travel recently

In your corner of Hampshire maybe, but summer has been getting sunnier nationally. The wetter thing I think is honestly just a temporary thing as air moisture increases and we get more storms shoved into us. Along a lot of the south coast, June and July have already become notably drier than in 1961-1990. Only August rainfall has increased overall and that's probably just down to strong late summer storms that in future will be pushed back into September as the Hadley cell keeps expanding. Not to mention, in the 1991-2020 period, we have had a few seriously anomalously wet summers that will undoubtedly add to the rainfall totals - if 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2012 are removed from the stat totals then at least a few mm must come off May-July, which would put a lot of the south coast in sub-40mm territory for all three months. I know some will mention a few other offenders but whatever, those weren't anywhere near as wet as those four. In 2011-2040 as three of those four offenders are finally removed from the calculation, there will probably be quite a noticeable drop in May-July rainfall that can purely be attributed to the May-Julys of 2007-2009 being removed.

[CryoraptorA303]

 In Absence of True Seasons This is essentially what is predicted, for the SE quadrant to become Csb. Over half of all years here (including last year) already qualify as Csb.

28 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

Must be a fair chance May will be an 11th wet month on the trot after this event, which sounds like it could be quite prolonged, and a risk of further wet weather in the next few days.

Even if 2 of the 3 remaining weeks after the coming weekend are dry and just one is wet, I suspect we could end up with yet another wet month.

It would be a massive annoyance if we receive nearly all of our May rainfall in the upcoming few days, for the rest of May to then be bone dry, as it'll still technically be a wet month, even if it was overall very dry and sunny, essentially like August 2022 for some areas.

[Earthshine]

It's been pretty garbage in Exeter.  Hopefully improves by Friday

[In Absence of True Seasons]

Crazy mild tonight in London. Still 17c at this time of evening. Feels more like a July evening than early May. Quite wild how it's warmer *now* at 9pm than it was for much of the day earlier.