Moans, ramps and banter

[Summer8906]

 baddie ... and by late-May it's then only two months to the start of the next autumn, on 1 August.

[Met.]

 Scorcher Which Sheffield is that? It's 19°C in the one I live in!

[Summer8906]

 Wimbledon88 So Fort William (?) gets to 22C before most of Southern England has this year. Now that is bonkers.

Edited May 2 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

46 minutes ago, Northwest NI said:

Your area is great in high summer

I realise I'm not @*Stormforce~beka* but... no it isn't!

Admittedly it's better than your part of the world - but typical conditions in Southern Hampshire in July and particularly August are rather cloudy with fleeting sunny intervals, with a cool onshore breeze and occasional drizzle showers. We miss the warmth that places more inland and further east (such as the London area) get, due to maritime influence. Things were better 20-odd years ago when we had more NW-lies (longer land track) and less SW-lies in summer.

The deterioration is basically for the same reason as you (the return of the Atlantic) albeit not quite as bad.

March-June seems to be our best period on average, though obviously not this year - or last for that matter.

Edited May 2 by Summer8906

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 Frigid Enjoy it!

[Summer8906]

 *Stormforce~beka* Ah ok, I thought this was a warm sector from the east behind a westwards-moving warm front?

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 Summer8906 Oh feick knows anymore . Whatever it is it's a bloody mess!

[Summer8906]

2 hours ago, B87 said:

May 2020

June 1976

July 2018

August 1995

September 1959

October 2011

November 2021

December 2016

 

Mostly agree though would substitute May 2020 with something with happier memories, such as 1989, 1992 or 2018.

Also would substitute the mild and dull SAD-fest that was Nov 2021 with something like Nov 1993, and the mild, dull, drizzly and non-descript Dec 2016 with something sunny like Dec 2001.

Edited May 2 by Summer8906

[In Absence of True Seasons]

 Summer8906 Actually ridiculous when you think about it lol

 Wimbledon88 Wtf, actually insane lol. 

[Summer8906]

 *Stormforce~beka* Whatever it is, at least the visibility has improved and you can see right across the IoW, But the light level is very February or late October. Not quite full-on Nov to Jan, but certainly winter-half-year.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 Summer8906 Yes it feels very Autumnal. Are you on the sea? I forget where are you?

[danm]

One of those frustrating days where synoptic placement leaves some areas dull and grey. 

[B87]

 Summer8906 Nov 2021 and Dec 2016 were selected because they were both very dry and slightly sunny here, without being too cold.

Nov 2021: 10mm, 73 hours

Dec 2016: 10mm, 60 hours

Dec 2015 was ridiculously mild and dull, but it was also dry here.

[Summer8906]

 *Stormforce~beka* Southampton area, not quite on the sea but IoW visible from certain places nearby.

[Jon Somerset]

Well I never. It’s raining again.

[Summer8906]

 B87 Ah ok. Here both were pretty dull and drab - both were SW-ly months which would probably again explain why this area didn't do so well.

I remember Dec 2016 lacked heavy rain but had quite a number of days with drizzle. It was a bit like Dec 1988, if I remember right, which was also similar - dry but dull and drizzle on a number of days.

Edited May 2 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

So is there any hope for this coming weekend?

Latest Met Office seems to have gone from vaguely changeable with bright spells to bordering on washout:

Quote

Confidence in detail becomes low into the weekend, however likely remaining unsettled with heavy showers or spells of rain, with Saturday most likely to be the brightest day.

Meanwhile both the Met Office and GFS seem to be suggesting a further deterioration from around the 13th. The GFS have been showing this fairly consistently, sadly.

Wondering then if May will end up as yet another very wet month, there seems to be little sign of any prolonged settled weather on the horizon. An 11th consecutive wet month seems almost certain now, as the first 6 days look exceedingly wet and then we'll probably only need a few more days of wet weather to go above normal. The Met Office 16-30 dayer:

Quote

During the longer range outlook period, there is a greater chance of unsettled weather returning, especially across the south. This means that spells of wet weather are likely for most, notably across southern or central areas, while drier conditions on balance are more likely further north. There are no strong signs for any exceptional temperatures either above or below average, but warm days are possible as are some chilly nights.

Is it now time to write off May?

That leaves June before the "full-on-Atlantic" season (aka July to December) starts in earnest. Could we get two decent Junes in a row? On the face of it, it would be remarkable if June 2023 was followed by another unusually sunny June but you never know, I guess.

 

Edited May 2 by Summer8906

[B87]

 Summer8906 We could get 2 good Junes in a row. We had 6 dull Julys in a row between 2007-2012 remember.

[Scorcher]

 Met. The weather station must be reporting faulty data then. It's listed as 10C on Weatheronline

[Met.]

 Scorcher Sometimes happens on there. This site has the correct reading from Weston Park weather station. 

Weatherobs

WEATHEROBS.COM

---

Global weather observations (METAR, SYNOP, BUOY, SHIP, TAF, CWOP) decoded to enable display of latest temperatures, weather, snow depths, precipitation, wind and wave conditions and more

 

[Summer8906]

 B87 True. Surely this endless dull, wet, cyclonic weather has to end sometime, doesn't it?

Wondering what people's thoughts now on the first month to be drier than normal across most of the country will be?

June, or something later?

 

Edited May 2 by Summer8906

[Wade]

 Summer8906 Write off May? After 2 days? What nonsense

[Summer8906]

 Wade Well the first 6 days look poor, and both the GFS and Met Office have been consistent in showing a reversion to unsettled after the 13th. That was the basis of my thoughts.

Edited May 2 by Summer8906

[Wade]

 Summer8906 It doesn't mean it will verify though, the weather is notoriously hard to predict, no amount of technology can 100% guarantee what the weather will be beyond a week at least.

[In Absence of True Seasons]

7 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

Surely this endless dull, wet, cyclonic weather has to end sometime, doesn't it?

Does it? I told myself that back in March, and prior to that December, prior to that, August. Yet here we are.