Moans, ramps and banter

[In Absence of True Seasons]

 AWD Yeah, we'll probably get a few days of high teens and sunny spells, perhaps scraping a 20c one day, which is obviously significantly better than whatever nonsense today and yesterday is, but it's nothing to shout about, especially in my neck of the woods (those are average max temps for May in London, I'd be expected 21-25c for a properly 'warm' May spell, which isn't uncommon here). 

And as you say, it is not indicative of any settled change to the current 'pattern'. It's also incredibly frustrating that the finer, more useable weather unequivocally lands when we're at work, and avoids weekends like the plague. Infuriating. 

[In Absence of True Seasons]

 SunnyG It's actually so laughable by this point. I'm going to have to start digging out my memes again

[SunnyG]

 In Absence of True SeasonsWe no longer nead forecasts, we can do it ourselves. Oh look, 1/2 days of sunny spells then grot and rain. Rinse/repeat.

[In Absence of True Seasons]

 SunnyG It's just so hopelessly inaccurate. Tuesday this week was meant to be rainy but actually ended up dry and sunny spells. This thunderstorm and LP literally appeared out of nowhere and then BOOM, bank holiday downgraded. 

Saturday is now 16c and showers (from yesterday wherein it was 18-19c and partly sunny).

I just give up. 

Living in this country is like being in a toxic relationship with a drug addict who consistently promises you they'll change and do better, and you believe them time and time again, but they never do. 

[SunnyG]

 In Absence of True Seasons I was never the type to believe people of that sort will change, so I have stopped believing positive forecasts a while ago

 

Edited May 3 by SunnyG

[In Absence of True Seasons]

Has anyone else got a weird sort of 'humidity headache' from this weather? There's a weird pressure in my forehead between my eyes that appeared yesterday and persisting now.

[Sun Chaser]

 In Absence of True Seasons Looks better than a lot of the days here lately. You know, think yourself lucky that there's a patch of brighter cloud!

1 hour ago, SunSean said:

In Spring, a crisp morning with a nip in the air, getting warmer & warmer in the strengthening sun with beautiful blue skies as you watch leaves & trees begin to bloom, listen to the chorus of bird songs, relaxing your mind & soul with the excitement of the months to come, or- The melancholic sounds of birds fleeting in the backdrop of a dark, overcast & miserable day, completely indistinguishable from the darkest days of Winter.

This. This is what I've been missing this year. There hasn't been a single day like this because every day has been marred by cloud and mild nights. None of the late February/March optimism. None of the excitement of the first April warm spell. Nothing really warm or cold to give interest. Not even two entirely sunny days in a row, let alone a whole week or more of it like most springs have! Just permacloud and temperatures of 11-16c since late January. Some of the leaves on the trees are actually going BROWN thanks to wet soil and lack of sunshine.

I'm cautious for this upcoming warm spell next week, even if temperatures are good what I really want is SUNSHINE, and if it ends up being as cloudy as it's predicted to be then I'll be disappointed. But a lot of weather services generally overstate the effects of cloud on the day so I'm hoping we end up with some decently sunny days, possibly reaching into the low twenties?? Is that too much to ask weather gods?

I guess I wasn't expecting another back-loaded spring. I just prefer a good old front-loaded, much sunnier one!

[SunnyG]

 In Absence of True Seasons I never get headaches but I feel more tired than usual. Sun Chaser The gods have turned their collective back on us. They got better things to do

[Sun Chaser]

1 minute ago, SunnyG said:

I never get headaches but I feel more tired than usual.

Yess so true. Usually I feel quite energetic but that's been sapped out of me in the past 3 months.

[In Absence of True Seasons]

 Sun Chaser Its definitely not bright, lol. It's quite literally the colour of a mid-December day, light-levels wise. 

I find my phone always 'brightens' things, I have to ramp up the contrast to actually show a reflection of how it looks in real life. 

But yes, I know the SW has been particularly grim too. 

[CoventryWeather]

 In Absence of True Seasons this weekend is looking decent for 90% of people in England. Seems to be projecting a bit of southern bias in this post. 

The odd shower in the south east possibly, most models have nothing. It's looking much drier and sunnier next week too, so not quite sure where you're looking. 

17/18 degrees is reasonable, add a degree or two as models struggle and 20 degrees in the east is more than doable. Nothing terrible there? 

[Sun Chaser]

 In Absence of True Seasons Was joking, definitely looks fully overcast there. We've been blessed with a 98% overcast sky and a tiny patch of blue sky that I'm able to see through a layer of high wispy cirrus cloud!

[Northwest NI]

Here’s some sun  

I hope you all remember this later in summer when you’re basking in it and I’m staring through raindrop windows. I’ll need my spirits lifted then

 

Edited May 3 by Northwest NI

[B87]

 CoventryWeather Now 3rd May and London has had 1 hour of sun for the month so far, and 25% of the monthly average rainfall. 

The sustained sunny spell that was due to happen has now been replaced by cloud in the forecast. Feels like another dull and wet month on the way.

What will it take for the weather to actually settle down this year?

Edited May 3 by B87

[ANYWEATHER]

 Northwest NI thanks for reminding us what blue skies and sunshine look like ! Give us some please....

[dryfie]

See that Achfary in the northwest is currently 20 deg.  Just 0.1 above what they had in January!

[In Absence of True Seasons]

 CoventryWeather Well, if by bias you mean "the weather that affects me specifically" then sure. I can't speak for the weather where I'm not currently present in.

I'll be pleased for people elsewhere in England who get a decent weekend but I'm obviously going to be predominantly speaking for my own location when I moan about the conditions. If my location is the only region where the conditions are poor, then that'll be even more frustrating.

 

 Northwest NI I know photoshop when I see it

 

[Catbrainz]

I think the poor weather has been caused by many things aligning like El Niño and two late season SSWs in a row. El Niño tends to fire up the jetstream in my experience. From Discord convos it seems 2023/2024 haven’t been great years ether for NE America/Eastern Canada. 

[danm]

55 minutes ago, SunnyG said:

What's the GFS like?

Just posted in the Mod thread, hard to complain about the runs for next week this morning. Every Op run is churning out a similar pattern. There will always be small variations in orientation etc. 

A snapshot for mid next week:

GEM - pressure high, orientation decent, thicknesses high:

 

UKMO - very similar:

 

...as is the ECM...

 

GFS also quite similar, but yes on Tuesday/Wednesday the high is a little flimsier compared to previous Op runs, but it still gets to a very decent place:

 

The GFS mean for Wednesday looks good:

[danm]

 Alderc 2.0 are we looking for breakdowns now before the high pressure has even established itself? I get we've all had a rough 18 months and been burned before, but this is similar to people getting their winter snow but instead of going out and enjoying it, they complain about the thaw that's inevitably coming in 5 days time. 

Who knows, this well modelled settling down next week could all go t**s up, or get watered down, time will tell, but people have been looking for signs of warmer, sunnier weather for ages. It's showing, as people have been hoping. Let's see what plays out and really not worry about a possible breakdown of the high pressure in 10 days time. We all know how reliable the models are at that range. 

[danm]

34 minutes ago, B87 said:

The sustained sunny spell that was due to happen has now been replaced by cloud in the forecast.

Where are you getting this from, an app? Weatheronline? These things are useless beyond the very short term. 

[Alderc 2.0]

 danm  absolutely not looking for breakdowns. The opposite want to see the consistency in the modelling. Until that GFS Ops run drops that trend I remain to be totally convinced given it has a history of sniffing something different out to the models - that said the ensembles suite for GEM and ECM are much better. 

[Northwest NI]

Feeling quite a bit warmer here today although projected temperatures are the same 18/19. There is zero breeze today which is making quite a difference!

[Mullet]

Bloody miserable here in brentwood. 9 degrees and raining, but feels colder. Late November conditions persisting for what feels like an eternity!

[In Absence of True Seasons]

 Northwest NI Shows how much different the temps can be at this time of year purely as a result of cloud cover. 

A solid 10c difference from your location and mine.

Edited May 3 by In Absence of True Seasons