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Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

This thread is for model related chat and discussion only.
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Tamara
Tamara

Bom dia e todos☺️ I make no apologies for yet again re-pasting this sequence originally posted just prior to New Year, because it has become an even more focused roadmap. Not just for the upcomin

Tamara
Tamara

References, as ever, crop up to x+y= responses to MJO phases in isolation. Again, to keep reiterating, tropical AND extra tropical wind-flow has to be assessed in respect of synoptic responses. There

MattH
MattH

Just a quick post but the reason for the quick transition to the westerly type is, in my opinion, linked to the recent weakening of the strat vortex and how, within the lower layers of the strat/top o

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mountain shadow Maestro

mountain shadow

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
Posted

Well, this is a dire run for 80% of the population and even those who see decent snow from the low, it will quickly melt.

Hopefully an outlier.

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Hatewarmth Contributor

Hatewarmth

Posted
  • Location: Barnsley
  • Location: Barnsley
Posted
12 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Day 7 is an imby chart if I’ve ever seen one! Nail biting if your in the south!

Yes it is. BUT can the cold air hold snd push back south to maintain the cover of the 6 inches we would get. Not so sure

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Matt Jones Contributor

Matt Jones

Posted
  • Location: Immingham, NE Lincolnshire pretty much sea level
  • Location: Immingham, NE Lincolnshire pretty much sea level
Posted
1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

It’s not all about 850s remember 👌⛄️

Decent charts for those with elevation and west of the A1, but we had charts covering the UK in sub -8 850's for a good few days before now so the ECM for the country as a whole is a poor one, corrections south and less progressive needed for an improvement tomorrow hopefully.

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Bricriu Seasoned

Bricriu

Posted
  • Location: North West of Ireland
  • Location: North West of Ireland
Posted
Just now, Drifter said:

Nope not great imo. What the northern members need to realise, is the further north this goes, the worse everything becomes for longevity. 

Unless it pushes  all back south on later frames.

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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
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Posted

The ECM is a poor run, it drags the core low heights further and further west so at day 8 it is in line with the meridian and further west still at day 9, the pattern becomes cool and cyclonic rather than cold. Probably still good enough for some but the run isn’t too far from delivering very little.

 

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mountain shadow Maestro

mountain shadow

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
Posted
Just now, Drifter said:

Nope not great imo. What the northern members need to realise, is the further north this goes, the worse everything becomes for longevity. 

It's actually dry for most of the North away from Eastern Scotland.

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Scott Ingham Veteran

Scott Ingham

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
Posted
Just now, Hatewarmth said:

Yes it is. BUT can the cold air hold snd push back south to maintain the cover of the 6 inches we would get. Not so sure

The UK is so small and these lows can change so much at this timeframe that not a lot can be said really! We’re looking at the weekend before we’ll even have some kind of idea 

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mulzy Accomplished

mulzy

Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
Posted

The ECM is a poor run in FI.  Let’s see where it sits within its ensemble suite.

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
Just now, northwestsnow said:

That's a proper kick in the wetsuits that is.

One run, let’s see where it sits. 👍

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Weathizard Accomplished

Weathizard

Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
Posted

Dreadful ECM and I’m afraid indicative of what I was saying earlier, with no blocking or forcing on the Atlantic there is only one way that day 6 chart is heading and it’s Atlantic in charge, albeit not your typical zonal pattern, unfortunately despite all the bizarre hemispheric patterns we’ve seen in the predictions it all looks a bit normal winter style if this ECM Is to be believed.

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
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Posted

The ECM just shot Bambi !

Not the best of runs , there’s a lot of cold air to tap into but it plots a route to ensure it stays mainly to the north .

It all looks messy past day 7 and this looks like the NWP being frazzled by a lot going on in the background .

 

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on the coast Enthusiast

on the coast

Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire
Posted
1 minute ago, January Snowstorm said:

Didn't John Holmes suggest earlier a westerly trend??

He did.

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Drifter Rising Star

Drifter

Posted
  • Location: North east Hampshire
  • Location: North east Hampshire
Posted
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

That's a proper kick in the wetsuits that is.

Certainly is. UK back in south westerlies by day 10

The good news is, it will change. 

Why can we never have cross model agreement!

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Gowon Veteran

Gowon

Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
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Just now, northwestsnow said:

That's a proper kick in the wetsuits that is.

Your fault for telling that guy in Mc Donald's.😒🙃

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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted

Well hope the ECM has lost it tonight because that was an ugly run . By the end back to the usual rain and wind . 

C52BDB70-F23B-4280-9B47-0C0D1113589B.png

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Drifter Rising Star

Drifter

Posted
  • Location: North east Hampshire
  • Location: North east Hampshire
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Posted
Just now, Gowon said:

Your fault for telling that guy in Mc Donald's.😒🙃

He’s not lovin’ it anymore!

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MJB Accomplished

MJB

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
Posted

See where ECM sits before kicking the cat around the garden, nothing like the MET update. 5-10 dayer

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MattStoke Maestro

MattStoke

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
Posted
3 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Didn't John Holmes suggest earlier a westerly trend??

Yes but beyond next week.

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Drifter Rising Star

Drifter

Posted
  • Location: North east Hampshire
  • Location: North east Hampshire
Posted
3 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

No point viewing the charts until Sunday.

Too early to micro analyse such a complex situation.

See you at 10pm then? 🤣

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mulzy Accomplished

mulzy

Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
Posted (edited)

In GEM we trust friends.  Make no mistake, the ECM is truly pants!

Edited by mulzy
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MJB Accomplished

MJB

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
Posted
1 minute ago, Drifter said:

Certainly is. UK back in south westerlies by day 10

The good news is, it will change. 

Why can we never have cross model agreement!

we have at 48 -72 

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