Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

[winterof79]

Just now, MJB said:

And potentially through the week until it warms up next week, looking at the charts

updated

[Djdazzle]

I think that people who have been obsessively watching the models of later (me included) can lose sight of the bigger picture.

We have been chasing the cold for a long time, and it seems it will come. However, what seems to be coming is a watered-down version of what was modelled a while back. The cold doesn't look severe, even in the north. And the longevity seems to be have been slowly eroded too.

This is s shame, because we should have been able to achieve much better with the  teleconnections and drivers that are in play.

Maybe the models will start to pick up on something more substantial later the month. Many of the best historical cold spells had one or two lesser attempts preceding them.

[sheikhy]

Very very cold 850s from the ecm06z ensembles for my area out to 144 hours!!!!upgrade or similar to 00z!!

[Ali1977]

Guess what was showing on the ECM 6z ️️️ That low was heading Into the U.K. into cold air - likely a big snow event again midlands south - this is T144 and it’s heading in 

Edited January 11 by Ali1977

[KTtom]

Thinking GFS had this nailed going 'Exeter's' update.. Milder air being drawn in by the the weekend' 

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, KTtom said:

Thinking GFS had this nailed going 'Exeter's' update.. Milder air being drawn in by the the weekend' 

It hasn’t updated yet has it? 

[Harveyslugger]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

It hasn’t updated yet has it? 

Yes the short -medium term has

[KTtom]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

It hasn’t updated yet has it? 

You're gonna get me shot  !

 

UK long range weather forecast

Tuesday 16 Jan - Thursday 25 Jan

Cold with wintry showers affecting northwestern coasts, with showers moving inland especially in the north, clearer in the south. Potential for more persistent snow through Tuesday in the northwest. There is risk of unsettled weather pushing in from the south through midweek, potentially leading to areas of snow and sleet where it meets the colder air across the country. Confidence is low regards the timing of the arrival of any such disturbance, but there is an increasing risk of something potentially disruptive at some point in this period. Widespread frosts continue by night with wintry showers from the northwest between further potential pulses of snow as weather fronts move in from the west these likely drawing in milder conditions by next weekend.

Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Thu 11 Jan 2024

Edited January 11 by KTtom

[tight isobar]

Just now, KTtom said:

UK long range weather forecast

Tuesday 16 Jan - Thursday 25 Jan

Cold with wintry showers affecting northwestern coasts, with showers moving inland especially in the north, clearer in the south. Potential for more persistent snow through Tuesday in the northwest. There is risk of unsettled weather pushing in from the south through midweek, potentially leading to areas of snow and sleet where it meets the colder air across the country. Confidence is low regards the timing of the arrival of any such disturbance, but there is an increasing risk of something potentially disruptive at some point in this period. Widespread frosts continue by night with wintry showers from the northwest between further potential pulses of snow as weather fronts move in from the west these likely drawing in milder conditions by next weekend.

Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Thu 11 Jan 2024

Likely?/ and nxt weekend..   that’s all you need to think after a 7 day already cold / probably snowy period!!!

[KTtom]

Just now, tight isobar said:

Likely?/ and nxt weekend..   that’s all you need to think after a 7 day already cold / probably snowy period!!!

yes, at least there is plenty of opportunity before then for some..

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, KTtom said:

You're gonna get me shot  !

 

UK long range weather forecast

Tuesday 16 Jan - Thursday 25 Jan

Cold with wintry showers affecting northwestern coasts, with showers moving inland especially in the north, clearer in the south. Potential for more persistent snow through Tuesday in the northwest. There is risk of unsettled weather pushing in from the south through midweek, potentially leading to areas of snow and sleet where it meets the colder air across the country. Confidence is low regards the timing of the arrival of any such disturbance, but there is an increasing risk of something potentially disruptive at some point in this period. Widespread frosts continue by night with wintry showers from the northwest between further potential pulses of snow as weather fronts move in from the west these likely drawing in milder conditions by next weekend.

Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Thu 11 Jan 2024

Thanks, I’m liking the potentially disruptive line still - as per the ECM 06 chart hopefully

[Harveyslugger]

6 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Guess what was showing on the ECM 6z ️️️ That low was heading Into the U.K. into cold air - likely a big snow event again midlands south - this is T144 and it’s heading in 

Hopefully other models trend north

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

 

 

Super happy with the evolution since Late December now its becoming clearer in some finer detailing of this upcoming significant cold episode.

• Significant cold front moving south bringing significant below avg surface and 850hpa temperature anomalies by Sunday January 14th
• Surface temperatures point to a severe winter weather event.

"Through Jan week 2 toward the aforementioned middle month period we'll have the -NAO,-AO,PNA,El Ninò,MJO and Easterly QBO feeding towards the setup going retrogressive this will have a couple of significant changes with a westwards moving trough which links with expectations into elongation with the centre over the Baltics, Scandinavia as this is occuring the high pressure and block will shift northwestward to reside across Greenland this is more supporting of colder 850hpa temps likely from the Northeast, we maintain below average surface temps during this with possible scope for these to get colder"

'Seeing the heart of these colder temperatures at surface and upper level becoming centred through Europe with just the far south of the UK clinging to is perfectly anticipated thanks to the phase 7 feedback'

Note the movement northwards of this cold anomaly from phases 7 into 8

From the above we can Note the significance of both 850hpa temps and in particular surface temperatures as both will contain anomalies roughly 15 > 20 Degrees BELOW AVERAGE, this will give multiple ice days in succession with liklihood of significant ice days over Scotland and Northern regions of England though there will be ice days for Ireland  

A timeframe with a focal point towards wintry precip event(s) will be from January 16th through 18th with the cyclone in the Atlantic starting the merging process to the Scandinavian Baltic Trough

7 day precip anomaly. I'm expectant of significant flash flood event[s] for Portugal and its border into Northwest Spain

Such an excellent showcase of all the teleconnective feedback coming into one stunning meteorological display

"My thinking holds steady with the MJO working into the Maritimes generally Mid Jan maybe into January week 3 as this increases cyclonic developments seeing these sorts of 500hpa setups during that period is very plausible.''

 

Following the MJO passing across the Maritimes we begin seeing feedback of phases 1 and into 2 as January week 4 gets started a high forms toward the Maritimes which might extend through Canada, also I'm starting to notice the trend toward cut off low development toward Mexico, far Southwest US  

 

[Norrance]

Please use the Met O thread to discuss their updates. Any more will be removed.
Also remember to use the regional threads for will it snow in x? type posts and reminiscences of previous falls.

Thanks

[Norrance]

Just now, Drifter said:

Could we get a definitive reason why? Everyone wants to read it and it’s helpful to see how Met Office viewing the current output. 

Because it derails this thread which is for model discussion. Please use the contact the team thread if you wish to discuss further as this is also derailing this thread. Thanks.

[Martz86]

Are 850temps at your average cloud height? And how long does it take for 850temps to filter down to have an impact on 2m temps? Sorry for a dumb question(s)

[Harveyslugger]

2 minutes ago, Martz86 said:

Are 850temps at your average cloud height? And how long does it take for 850temps to filter down to have an impact on 2m temps? Sorry for a dumb question(s)

850s is the temperature at roughly 5000 feet above sea level.it is very useful because at that height, temperature is not affected by day or night.so it gives an overall picture on how warm/cold it will be down on the ground 

[Drifter]

30 minutes ago, Martz86 said:

Are 850temps at your average cloud height? And how long does it take for 850temps to filter down to have an impact on 2m temps? Sorry for a dumb question(s)

Please, delete, obviously was no use.

 

Edited January 11 by Drifter

[Nick123]

20 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Guess what was showing on the ECM 6z ️️️ That low was heading Into the U.K. into cold air - likely a big snow event again midlands south - this is T144 and it’s heading in 

And a streamer on steroids heading bang on straight for me?

Bank!

[Bricriu]

33 minutes ago, MJB said:

And potentially through the week until it warms up next week, looking at the charts

Potentially  warms up or are you of the view  it's almost  a foregone  conclusion that it will warm up everywhere?

[Ali1977]

Just now, Nick123 said:

And a streamer on steroids heading bang on straight for me?

Bank!

Not sure but it sure looks a crazy chart ️

[Nick123]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

Not sure but it sure looks a crazy chart ️

I think a lot of people would bank that!

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, Nick123 said:

And a streamer on steroids heading bang on straight for me?

Bank!

Looks like a convergence zone judging by the winds 

 

[Catacol]

Do my eyes - and my refresh button - deceive me? Has the MetO just put out an updated medium forecast for next week and then retracted it back to yesterday's within an hour? Hmm. Maybe my computer is broke. I'm off for an MRI shortly - my knee is definitely broke unfortunately...

Meanwhile if you do nothing else today please read Tamara's surfing post and avoid being a slave to NWP output in the unusual pattern that is beginning to unfold. NWP doesn't deal with blocking patterns very well and tends to default too quickly to default westerlies when the blocks get hard to read. That's not to say that week 2 isnt going to get less cold - I think it looks likely that it will - but such phrases are relative and folk should keep in mind that Glosea Feb forecast from yesterday.

I just had a team meeting and we discussed the potential impact of snowfall next week. First time I've done that since 2018. Gave me a warm, fuzzy feeling. What is it about snow that is so alluring? 

Best post a chart to keep the ModPolice happy. @Scott Inghamday as start of the proper cold feed now looks a nailed on certainty. Scott - early creme eggs are yours....

[Nick123]

Just now, bluearmy said:

Looks like a convergence zone judging by the winds 

 

Is that where the winds meet to create a fun zone? Wish I was better at terminology lol