Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

[Ali1977]

Just now, Mcconnor8 said:

GEM looks like a very significant snow event too.

Yup , the METO are all over this 

[frosty ground]

The 168 chart which I can’t post looks primed on the GFS surface high over scandi! 

[tight isobar]

5 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Could be a rippper!!. Could just do with a drop rather than floating low country dynamic! Then the polar air literally meets the Chanel feature!!!… possible news maker in the offing…

Ohhh err gfs 12z

Edited January 11 by tight isobar

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

That’s very interesting she said that about it being pulled apart from below, Matt, because I have noticed that the shown splits have seemed to be from the trop upwards, rather than top down, and said as much on here. 

Unchartered territory perhaps Mike? Perhaps the pv could fall in a way that its not usually accustomed too!

Edited January 11 by MATTWOLVES 3

[Mike Poole]

8 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Boooooom UKMO - maybe the GFS will open the block back up 

It would do better if it didn’t close it in the first place.  Really think GFS has this wrong!

[frosty ground]

messy and pick the bones out of that!

what’s going to happen to the low moving into norther Scotland, to round for fun

[GokouD]

6 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Booooooooom yes I’mby but im chasing my life out of this ️

Wow, that would be genuinely heart-breaking IMBY... I'll just have to try and be happy for the Southerners haha.

[Catacol]

10 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Boooooom UKMO - maybe the GFS will open the block back up 

Aside from staring at my lamppost our out my window on and off starting Sunday, I am fascinated how NWP forecasts develop once the cold is in town. We haven’t quite yet fired the starting pistol on the next pacific led momentum surge, though the MJO orbit looks to remain high and there is plenty of momentum sustaining within the pattern. I think the move towards less cold conditions in week 2 will be eased back.

And then - for how long will a less amplified pattern sustain? Assuming we have the GSDM drivers nailed down accurately, and that starting pistol sounds soon, do we see a flatter type pattern, still potentially displaced south, for as long as 5 days? Unsure. And where will the jet sit? No certainty that it will be north of The Channel. Much murk in timing and schedule over and above micro developments in local areas next week.

But one thing is for sure - there is nothing dull about what is coming, and the transition into and through February looks very good indeed. 

[tight isobar]

I don’t know!! The gfs is evolutionary sharp/ reliable out to 180.. then it’s a dogs dinner!! It’s trait n, fold after that is a confused mess!!.. craving energy’s response and default mode is now looking real!!!- miss management for sure .

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

It would do better if it didn’t close it in the first place.  Really think GFS has this wrong!

…imo

[Geordiesnow]

GFS and UKMO you both could say are fantastic runs but for different reasons, the UKMO possibly colder but the GFS does produce a snow event for the midlands, would like those uppers a tad lower though just to be on the safe side but it's all how the models deal with that shortwave coming down from Iceland. Whilst the GFS12Z run did make it more shallower it still introduced too much less cold for my likening. Scotland goes from uppers of -12 to around -3 -4hpa in the space of 12 hours!

So overall some more slight upgrades of the initial northerly in terms of the cold and still the threat even if we get some less cold air a reload is possible and if not, then a frontal snow event in the south is possible.

[Nick123]

Just now, GokouD said:

Wow, that would be genuinely heart-breaking IMBY... I'll just have to try and be happy for the Southerners haha.

Don't worry, it'll move again. I wouldn't be getting excited until a few days before if I was in the South. Its nice to look at but its a lottery at the minute, someone will hit the jackpot, but who? France or the South? 

[Ice Day]

Accumulated snowfall on the GEM at 168 has pretty much the whole country in on the act

These have to be taken with a huge pinch of salt, of course.  However, this is definitely an option on the table!

Absolute chaos in the models, and I'm loving every second!

Edited January 11 by Ice Day

[TSNWK]

GFS day 9 is not a good look in my view - what a mess of cold rain  for most here

[Harsh Climate]

Just now, Ice Day said:

Accumulated snowfall on the GFS at 168 has pretty much the whole country in on the act

These have to be taken with a huge pinch of salt, of course.  However, this is definitely an option on the table!

Absolute chaos in the models, and I'm loving every second!

It could be close in the fact that we are about to be attacked from all sides next week with a few snow events? 

[Drifter]

7 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

The 168 chart which I can’t post looks primed on the GFS surface high over scandi! 

Won’t happen this time due to one of its random dartboard lows. 

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, Ice Day said:

Accumulated snowfall on the GFS at 168 has pretty much the whole country in on the act

These have to be taken with a huge pinch of salt, of course.  However, this is definitely an option on the table!

Absolute chaos in the models, and I'm loving every second!

6/7CM in the south?

[weirpig]

2 minutes ago, Nick123 said:

Don't worry, it'll move again. I wouldn't be getting excited until a few days before if I was in the South. Its nice to look at but its a lottery at the minute, someone will hit the jackpot, but who? France or the South? 

I agree. That low on the gfs seems too deep for me  the ukmo  has it shallower.  I expect it to travel through northern France. But as ever more runs needed 

Edited January 11 by weirpig

[northwestsnow]

UKMO please...

GFS is good but unravels very quickly.i prefer longevity but each to their own of course ...

[frosty ground]

scandi high inbound on this run

[Mike Poole]

GFS T192:

If you’re bored, take a look at some reanalysis charts, i.e. charts of weather that has actually happened!  They never, ever, look as complicated as this.  This is the output of a run gone rogue.  

[sheikhy]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

UKMO please...

GFS is good but unravels very quickly.i prefer longevity but each to their own of course ...

I think regardless of how things go beforehand there just seems to be a flattening thereafter!!!!we need to eek out as much as we can next week i think!!

[Jason M]

5 minutes ago, GokouD said:

Wow, that would be genuinely heart-breaking IMBY... I'll just have to try and be happy for the Southerners haha.

Yes, you will be missing out on all that rain 

Lot of warmth tied in with this system. Somewhere is going to get lucky but there is going to be some pretty warm air in with that system so its not a channel runner in the traditional sense. Band of snow on its northern flank could be quite narrow.

 

[MattStoke]

6 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Accumulated snowfall on the GFS at 168 has pretty much the whole country in on the act

These have to be taken with a huge pinch of salt, of course.  However, this is definitely an option on the table!

Absolute chaos in the models, and I'm loving every second!

GEM too.

[Drifter]

3 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

scandi high inbound on this run

Nah, once GFS gets in a pickle like this you just have to let it get on with it. 

FI is probably day 6 at the moment. 

[TSNWK]

3 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

scandi high inbound on this run

Not a chance  against that mess to our north and north west