Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

[Hatewarmth]

1 hour ago, Rocheydub said:

Not on this run. But I can feel it in my waters! A watching brief continues!

I’ve been saying look NE fir a week now. This is where the holy grail will come from. Think we looking around end on month. Hopefully with a SSW to help things along

[IDO]

The breakdown is almost inevitable. There are differences in the microscale features around the D6-7 charts, so the GFS storm is not sure to be as shown. The difference is the modelling of a cut-off low around D6 that allows the GEM and UKMO to stop the heights from falling as quickly; the GFS does not have this as far north:

But it is semantics, with all three ops very similar and the westerly flow incoming with the cold trough edging east, creating that monster low as it rubs up against the colder air.

The GEM shows one of my three options: a NW to SE split:

The GFS cold zonal. Still, indications as we run down January of Pacific ridging; D16:

The mean picked up on this recently. So hopefully only 7-10 days of westerlies.

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, CoventryWeather said:

Another 200 miles north and we'll be happier in the mids. The south don't need another snow event - had plenty last December.

Lol not down here, but I don't mind it going a little further north as long as I don't get rain while everyone else has snow again pmsl. The models today are really keeping us on our toes.

[PiscesStar]

6 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Lol not down here, but I don't mind it going a little further north as long as I don't get rain while everyone else has snow again pmsl. The models today are really keeping us on our toes.

I reckon it will be cold rain for us if we see any precip at all  that's what the latest charts are saying 

Edited January 13 by PiscesStar

[That ECM]

Control gfs. 
 

Hope this in the right discussion forum.

[bluearmy]

Would be a good time for the strat to take the lead …..

[alexisj9]

53 minutes ago, knocker said:

The rapid cyclogenesis on this evening's gfs worth a mention as the low tracks NE south of Iceland down  to 924mb by 00 Saturday

Not really paying attention to it yet, GFS is probably playing it's normal game at that distance. I think it will be weaker, hopefully much weaker, and do something completely different, but I guess we'll see 

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

1 hour ago, cold snap said:

Gfs give it a rest. 

Low pressure after low pressure

Constant storm potential. 

No break from wind and rain from Saturday. 

Terrible weather

Presumably due to all the cold flooding down into the USA and firing up the jet stream. Seems to be the same most year's these days. The last thing we need is a fortnight of storms with copious amounts of rain  

[MATTWOLVES 3]

The noise is still there in the 12z ens for something colder. Again not convinced this milder spell has guts.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Not really paying attention to it yet, GFS is probably playing it's normal game at that distance. I think it will be weaker, hopefully much weaker, and do something completely different, but I guess we'll see 

hopefully we'll see the EC going way of UKMO, with little rain and higher pressure

[MidnightSnow]

53 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Mean precip for Wednesday is way north - could be some good swings on that front ahead - P28 would be nice for the midlands south ️

This has piqued my interest 

I was fully expecting it to go the other way tonight and even miss the south coast altogether. Still in the game and something to chase.

[tight isobar]

Ec 96- northward she rolls !!

[That ECM]

Golden shot (if you’re old enough) is a little more north on this run from previous ecm run. 
 

 

[Chrisover93]

11 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:

This has piqued my interest 

I was fully expecting it to go the other way tonight and even miss the south coast altogether. Still in the game and something to chase.

Yeah not going to lie bro I’ve been telling twitter all day that it’ll swing back it just didn’t make any sense to me the way they all were showing the goods and then 12 hours later it was gone infact after I watched the met office yesterday  they saw something different and anticipated the change and change again 

[Chrisover93]

2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Ec 96- northward she rolls !!

What I anticipated big flip then she starts to settle 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Perhaps we could start to see some more positive output come end of next week folks! Plenty to keep us on our toes,and much better than some previous winters of the past.

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, Chrisover93 said:

What I anticipated big flip then she starts to settle 

ECM no where near though unfortunately 

[Spah1]

20 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:

This has piqued my interest 

I was fully expecting it to go the other way tonight and even miss the south coast altogether. Still in the game and something to chase.

? It’s one ensemble member. 

[MR_E]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

ECM no where near though unfortunately 

Further north than previous run though 

[Chrisover93]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

ECM no where near though unfortunately 

nope - still swearing IT!!! Was hoping to see it go well just doesn’t make much sense right now ECM show this other runs showing different honestly I just don’t know where to go from here it maybe it’s break time for 12 hours 

[ANYWEATHER]

37 minutes ago, Weather of Mass Disruption said:

Presumably due to all the cold flooding down into the USA and firing up the jet stream. Seems to be the same most year's these days. The last thing we need is a fortnight of storms with copious amounts of rain  

Hope the gfs is wrong ,although I half expect to be right unfortunately,  one storm system after another ,we will be talking floods  again ......

[Bogman]

2 hours ago, CoventryWeather said:

Another 200 miles north and we'll be happier in the mids. The south don't need another snow event - had plenty last December.

Did we now. Okie dokie.

Not expecting anything from this week, although I hope those further south will get something.

On a positive note, it will dry out here in the shires, before whatever next weekend throws at us.

[KTtom]

34 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

The noise is still there in the 12z ens for something colder. Again not convinced this milder spell has guts.

Unfortunately history tells us it will probably have far more guts than this cold spell.

[SollyOlly]

16 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

Perhaps we could start to see some more positive output come end of next week folks! Plenty to keep us on our toes,and much better than some previous winters of the past.

Yes Matt,  I was thinking the same earlier today, at least we've already had a bit of interest this winter (even if I haven't yet seen falling snow!). The PV models have been interesting watching, definitely not as robust as many a year ("PV of doom!"), and maybe we'll get a split or full reversal before the end of winter to give us another shot at something seasonal. For now, I'm looking forward to enjoying the cold in the coming week.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

59 minutes ago, Weather of Mass Disruption said:

Presumably due to all the cold flooding down into the USA and firing up the jet stream. Seems to be the same most year's these days. The last thing we need is a fortnight of storms with copious amounts of rain  

But look at this profile for the US….I anticipate the jetstream to suddenly ‘unfire’

 

Going to be a very interesting week of model watching

BFTP