Scottish weather discussion - Spring 2023/24

[Penicuikblizzard]

Tuesdays front could be sleety wet snow at lower levels especially in the South of Scotland as there is a bit of a mild sector wrapped up in the low. 200m and above all Snow

Edited January 13 by Penicuikblizzard

[Ross B]

6 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

Tuesdays front could be sleety wet snow at lower levels especially in the South of Scotland as there is a bit of a mild sector wrapped up in the low. 200m and above all Snow

Yep, GFS 18z has some pretty heavy precipitation from 6am to 6pm here and across much of the country which is better than UKV, but it brings in milder air and even at my elevation I would be worried it's going to be sleet. Still some changes ahead, the met office are going to find this one tricky. Small margins between a dumping or a sleet fest. Yellow warnings should really be going out tomorrow if there is any confidence... 

Edited January 13 by Ross B

[johncam]

6 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

Tuesdays front could be sleety wet snow at lower levels especially in the South of Scotland as there is a bit of a mild sector wrapped up in the low. 200m and above all Snow

Aw naw , thats me literally snookered then 

1 hour ago, Northern Strath said:

Managed 4 ice days this week with a near one yesterday, so it’s been a chilly one. 4.8max today. Wet over the last couple of hrs, garden is currently a thin squelchy top layer with everything underneath frozen solid. Been sleety within the last hour  

Enjoy the highlands NYW

Brilliant,  we had one ground frost , frosty now though  

[Big Gally]

If it comes in early enough we should see it as snow. The afternoon looks tricky hopefully it’s just snow. 

[Spindrift2017]

1 hour ago, aggy said:

How come in Scotland showers tend not to penetrate to far inland from a northern direction but on mainland Europe they appear to go 100s miles in land 

 

is it down to the highlands ?

Yes, air cools and precipitation intensifies as it is forced up over mountains, and becomes drier and less cold as it descends on to lower ground. Believe it or not much of the central belt is in a “rain shadow” (or “snow shadow”) as far as precipitation from the north is concerned (there’s definitely no such shadow from a westerly direction!)

if the northerly flow is strong enough, the snow can sometimes pep up again over the Southern Uplands of Scotland or the Pennines, annoyingly.

This explains it quite well (albeit in a US context).

How Do Mountains Affect Precipitation? - DTN

WWW.DTN.COM

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How Do Mountains Affect Precipitation? - DTN

 

 

 

 

 

[Hairy Celt]

Down to 2C and bone dry now with about half the sky looking starry. Very little wind at this point.

The mean of the various forecasts for here suggests very little snow locally - possibly something more interesting on Tuesday - but a few very cold days, possibly one or two ice days. 

[aggy]

12 minutes ago, Spindrift2017 said:

Yes, air cools and precipitation intensifies as it is forced up over mountains, and becomes drier and less cold as it descends on to lower ground. Believe it or not much of the central belt is in a “rain shadow” (or “snow shadow”) as far as precipitation from the north is concerned (there’s definitely no such shadow from a westerly direction!)

if the northerly flow is strong enough, the snow can sometimes pep up again over the Southern Uplands of Scotland or the Pennines, annoyingly.

This explains it quite well (albeit in a US context).

How Do Mountains Affect Precipitation? - DTN

WWW.DTN.COM

---

How Do Mountains Affect Precipitation? - DTN

 

 

 

 

 

Fab reply thanks so much 

[damianslaw]

Quite a few stations in Scotland could be about to notch up a few ice days between Monday and Friday. Tuesday looks least likely to achieve this, but the other days highly probable. 

[snowidea]

Will only give up hoping for snow in Falkirk, if the met give us a weather warning. If that happens we're snookered 

[Mair Snaw]

Just took the dog out for his final wee of the day and i have to admit it really didnt feel cold at all..

 

[Ravelin]

Your body must just be acclimatising ready for the big freeze Mair Snaw, it should be around 2C currently where you are. Got to a high of 5.2C here today but felt colder when out walking the dog mid afternoon as we were exposed to a stiff NW breeze.  Now down to 1.4C with a dewpoint of -0.2C. If forecasts, are correct we should wake up to at least a thin covering of snow. 

[Glaswegianblizzard]

Yeah not to be a doomsayer but my expectations have been adjusted down by some margin now.

[aggy]

Aww guys come on !!!!!!!! Keep positive we all know suprise Snow can happen . Some of the best falls I’ve seen were not forecast 

[CameronWS]

Lots of models showing Tuesdays feature as rain for here. Surely we will get lucky in the middle of winter, in a cold spell. What are the key parameters looking like?

[Halfamilefromnowhere]

I can confirm, light very dry snowflakes are swirling in the wind.

[Halfamilefromnowhere]

Light covering already. 

[thebigyin]

Good to see @Halfamilefromnowhere 🌨

Not too much activity here yet I don't think..dark and just woke up...

. Temps still dropping slowly and bouncing about a bit now 1c and similar dp.

Spotted a post by @doctormog on the other side highlighting lp off Norway making way down. Lots action on satellite up north filtering  down...hopefully see some white stuff today

[doctormog]

The colder air is moving in from the north currently and this shows up nicely on the precipitation type radar with more evidence of wintriness. The models tend to be a bit rubbish at modelling convective precipitation, understandably due to its nature, so it’s tricky to work out what is incoming much in advance. I would be hopeful of seeing snow here today in Aberdeen but how much and when is a different matter! I just hope the westerly component doesn’t kill off too much of the precipitation before it gets here.

[Ravelin]

A dusting here overnight, but nothing measurable depth wise. Currently 0.2C, which is about as low as it's been since midnight. 

Edited January 14 by Ravelin

[Mair Snaw]

A dusting here too and some heavy showers passing over.. doesnt feel at all cold enough.

Anyways of to potterton to watch my youngest score a hat full in a cup semi final...

Lets hope for some better snaw action as the day progresses

[Halfamilefromnowhere]

View from the field cam in the wood,

[Sceptical]

Slight dusting overnight.

Temperatures are expected to drop around midday, Met going with heavy snow 9am.

No issues at Corgarff snowgates.

 

Edited January 14 by Sceptical

[Mair Snaw]

Looking at radar there seems to be a heavy band heading straight for my house.... come on i want a blizzard..

[Mair Snaw]

Heavy snaw on now, fantastic stuff..

[jon_d1983]

And the snows on!! First of the year!