Scottish weather discussion - Spring 2023/24

[aggy]

It’s going to come back north through the central belt

[A Winter's Tale]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

I'd say high chance of ice days Wed and Thursday in central Scotland. Minimal solar heating throughout Jan, not until mid Feb does it start to have an affect. Ice days can easily be achiebed well into March in the right conditions. 

Looking at the records for Glasgow airport going back to 1973 it’s very clear ice days are more easily achieved in the first half of winter. 
 

Number of days with maxima -0.5C or lower:

November 7

December 52

1-15 Jan 15

16-31 Jan 6

Feb 2

Obviously the figures for the first half of winter are distorted by the cold spells in 1979, 1981, 1982, 1987, 1995, 2000, 2009 and 2010 and there has been a lack of notable cold spells occurring after mid January in the last 50 years. The number of days with maxima below -0.5C is almost the same for November as the second half of winter and there have been more days with maxima below -6C in the first half of winter than -0.5C in the second. I think this emphasises how difficult it becomes to achieve low maxima as winter progresses. 

The days which recorded such maxima mid January onwards are: 18 Jan 1975 (-1), 17 Jan 1977 (-1), 31 Jan 1977 (-1), 15 Feb 1979 (-1), 20 Jan 1984 (-2), 30 Jan 2006 (-1), 20 Jan 2011 (-1), 28 Feb 2018 (-3). It just goes to show how extreme the beast from the east was to achieve such as low temperature so late in the season and accompanied with heavy snow and strong winds. It will be interesting to see if 2024 can join the list of the rare number of days post 15th January with maxima no higher than -1C. 

[Big Gally]

6 minutes ago, aggy said:

It’s going to come back north through the central belt

I think the models are never 100%. The met office have changed my location a dozen times since this morning. I’m going for 4/6 inches through the central belt with the secondary low later on in the day arriving. Wishful thinking lol! 

[drm]

A few showers moving in from the north West not sure how far across they ll get

[NorthYorksWeather]

2 minutes ago, drm said:

A few showers moving in from the north West not sure how far across they ll get

Definitely looks like something a bit more organised coming in from the north west. Not sure how far they will make it though, maybe another dusting overnight here. 

[Norrance]

5 minutes ago, NorthYorksWeather said:

Definitely looks like something a bit more organised coming in from the north west. Not sure how far they will make it though, maybe another dusting overnight here. 

They are certainly potent enough over in the Hebrides. Here is the road camera in Barra

[aggy]

28 minutes ago, Big Gally said:

I think the models are never 100%. The met office have changed my location a dozen times since this morning. I’m going for 4/6 inches through the central belt with the secondary low later on in the day arriving. Wishful thinking lol! 

Offt I’ll take it

[Ravelin]

Currently -3.7C here, and with a high of -1.7C around 2pm it's easily made an 'ice day', barring a miricle warm up in the next 1.5hrs. MetO app, XC Weather, and Yr.No forecasts all suggest it'll stay below freezing right through to later on Friday (only just tomorrow, with a possible max of between -1 and 0C).

Can we make it 4 straight ice days in a row? That in itself would be relatively unusual

[snowidea]

3 hours ago, Hairy Celt said:

Depends

edit: I see @snowidea is out the bath at last 

Might have to get back in it if we don't get at least a few flakes tomorrow 

[aggy]

Bbc further south now also

[Dundeeguy]

Looks like heavier precip later in day for north / east. I hope anyway….

Edited January 15 by Dundeeguy

[Hairy Celt]

19 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

Currently -3.7C here, and with a high of -1.7C around 2pm it's easily made an 'ice day', barring a miricle warm up in the next 1.5hrs. MetO app, XC Weather, and Yr.No forecasts all suggest it'll stay below freezing right through to later on Friday (only just tomorrow, with a possible max of between -1 and 0C).

Can we make it 4 straight ice days in a row? That in itself would be relatively unusual

I would say there's a good chance for here to have 4 ice days out of 5, with tomorrow being the spoiler - forecast to go slightly above freezing in the middle of the day. Certainly if we get even another dusting of snow tomorrow, that'll help keep temps down from then through till Friday morning.

The downer of course is the extra heating costs. Most of the time now we're able to keep the house warm with the wood-burning stove with back-boiler plus an electric oil-filled rad in the kitchen, but when it's constantly sub-zero, the oil boiler has to be fired up too. Not so cheap.

[Hairy Celt]

49 minutes ago, NorthYorksWeather said:

Definitely looks like something a bit more organised coming in from the north west. Not sure how far they will make it though, maybe another dusting overnight here. 

Never under-estimate the greediness of the north-west mountains....

[101_North]

Looks like tomorrow evening may be our best chance round here now. The first band looks a total non-event! I'll not be holding my breath

[Hairy Celt]

-10C is made out to be extreme cold...?  I can't be the only one to remember -25C in 1995 and winters with well below -10C more recently. Are we being conditioned to accept milder winters?

[Klippie]

Up until this evening it looked like we were going to get some snow tomorrow, the Beeb showing the best chances.

Now though the Beeb is showing just a few hours of light snow...the Meto is showing a horrific zero, and WXCharts GFS has also downgraded for us, but switching to the WX Euro model its looking more hopeful.

 

 

Edited January 15 by Klippie

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, A Winter's Tale said:

Looking at the records for Glasgow airport going back to 1973 it’s very clear ice days are more easily achieved in the first half of winter. 
 

Number of days with maxima -0.5C or lower:

November 7

December 52

1-15 Jan 15

16-31 Jan 6

Feb 2

Obviously the figures for the first half of winter are distorted by the cold spells in 1979, 1981, 1982, 1987, 1995, 2000, 2009 and 2010 and there has been a lack of notable cold spells occurring after mid January in the last 50 years. The number of days with maxima below -0.5C is almost the same for November as the second half of winter and there have been more days with maxima below -6C in the first half of winter than -0.5C in the second. I think this emphasises how difficult it becomes to achieve low maxima as winter progresses. 

The days which recorded such maxima mid January onwards are: 18 Jan 1975 (-1), 17 Jan 1977 (-1), 31 Jan 1977 (-1), 15 Feb 1979 (-1), 20 Jan 1984 (-2), 30 Jan 2006 (-1), 20 Jan 2011 (-1), 28 Feb 2018 (-3). It just goes to show how extreme the beast from the east was to achieve such as low temperature so late in the season and accompanied with heavy snow and strong winds. It will be interesting to see if 2024 can join the list of the rare number of days post 15th January with maxima no higher than -1C. 

Surprised at these stats, but interesting all the same. Did Feb 86 or 91, not produce any ice days. More recently our latest ice day I think was 11 March 2013.

 

[Mair Snaw]

Radar has suddenly sprung into life again....

Those of you out west its your time now..

[Northern Strath]

Snowfall-wise today was a non-event, though it has started to snow lightly in the last 15 mins, just for sh$ts and giggles. Otherwise the weather was just grand, all frozen up with a -2.6C max and sunny spells. Currently -6C. Hopefully tomorrow the lot of us get trounced by the white stuff.

[Halfamilefromnowhere]

A few heavy but brief snow showers this morning but mostly dry afternoon apart from a few brief flurries. Temps well below zero all day and down to -5.4C earlier lifted a bit now has steady snow is falling. Large fluffy flakes with hardly any wind.

[Hairy Celt]

4 minutes ago, Mair Snaw said:

Radar has suddenly sprung into life again....

Those of you out west its your time now..

I don't think the internet has reached Argyll...

[Snowandrocks]

20 minutes ago, Hairy Celt said:

-10C is made out to be extreme cold...?  I can't be the only one to remember -25C in 1995 and winters with well below -10C more recently. Are we being conditioned to accept milder winters?

Even in recent years we've had sub minus 20 locally here I'm sure? I've got a photo somewhere of the temperature gauge in the pickup that I bought in 2020 reading minus 19.5 outside the house during the daytime. I seem to remember others on here posting similar. 

[Hairy Celt]

Just now, Snowandrocks said:

Even in recent years we've had sub minus 20 locally here I'm sure? I've got a photo somewhere of the temperature gauge in the pickup that I bought in 2020 reading minus 19.5 outside the house during the daytime. I seem to remember others on here posting similar. 

That matches my memory. Yet the beeb presenters say -10C as if it's icemageddon. It's fkn not.

[stewfox]

13 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Surprised at these stats, but interesting all the same. Did Feb 86 or 91, not produce any ice days. More recently our latest ice day I think was 11 March 2013.

 

Jan 87 ?

[Mair Snaw]

1 minute ago, Snowandrocks said:

Even in recent years we've had sub minus 20 locally here I'm sure? I've got a photo somewhere of the temperature gauge in the pickup that I bought in 2020 reading minus 19.5 outside the house during the daytime. I seem to remember others on here posting similar. 

Think it was 11th Feb 2021 Alford recorded -23.3 in the morning.. @Sceptical would know best as he is always the one with the car dashboard pictures when its cold..