Storm Isha, Amber ⚠️

[Astral Goat Juice]

5mph is absolutely nothing - Batten down the hatches, some places will experience 90mph gusts tonight.

[Freeze]

2 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Pretty much for the entire storm, but in particular central and southern England. It has been downgrading since Friday. To do with increases in the strength of the Iberian high.

Wouldn't an increase in Iberian heights not tighten the gradient and make the isobars tighter together? 

[viking_smb]

glad I checked sea cadet craft and CBYC safety craft yesterday.

[Ross90]

Picking up a bit but still only gusting to around 40mph. Met and bbc both suggesting 50 mph by now.

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, Jo Farrow said:

This may be a post more for model discussion rather than the reality of severe and stormy weather incoming to a good part of the UK tonight.

How is high resolution output on a storm irrelevant to a thread about that storm? Additionally did I once say the spell would not be severe or stormy - just that we have seen slight 5mph downgrades in the past 36 hours which is typical of strong storms with high wind speeds.

2 minutes ago, Astral Goat Juice said:

5mph is absolutely nothing - Batten down the hatches, some places will experience 90mph gusts tonight.

Exactly, it is a nonsense that my post is somehow stating the storm will be less severe. Ok fine if quantitative correct analysis is unwanted, good day!

[Derecho]

3 minutes ago, Freeze said:

Wouldn't an increase in Iberian heights not tighten the gradient and make the isobars tighter together? 

Yup the increase in Iberian heights would lead to an increased pressure gradient if the storm was in the same position and was just as deep.

[Nick123]

9 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Pretty much for the entire storm. It has been downgrading since Friday. To do with increases in the strength of the Iberian high.

It's still a very severe storm however

[78/79]

Wind picking up here, the rain isn't too far away  looking at the radar. 

[Kasim Awan]

3 minutes ago, Derecho said:

Yup the increase in Iberian heights would lead to an increased pressure gradient if the storm was in the same position and was just as deep.

That is wrong. This is a deepening low so higher pressure would push the more severe gusts north. 

Edited January 21 by Kasim Awan

[Mcconnor8]

2 minutes ago, Derecho said:

Yup the increase in Iberian heights would lead to an increased pressure gradient if the storm was in the same position and was just as deep.

Storm position and depth forecast doesn't seem to have changed much in the last couple of days, just sub 950mb North of Scotland at midnight.

[WYorksWeather]

What I'd really appreciate is if someone is able to compare the model outputs to what the expectations are for the current time.

Irish coastal station at Belmullet reporting 972mb at 15:00, Donegal at 974mb.

Highest wind gust 145kmh (90mph) at Capel Curig, fairly widespread 40mph and more areas now reaching 50mph.

Happy to take views - is this in line with expectations, less severe, or more severe?

I think we need to be blending all our available data - which models initialised at 12z or 06z best match the situation now, and what do they predict going forward into this evening?

Edited January 21 by WYorksWeather

[Bristawl Si]

Rain has started here and a noticeable pick up in wind gusts.

[Bats32]

7 minutes ago, Ross90 said:

Picking up a bit but still only gusting to around 40mph. Met and bbc both suggesting 50 mph by now.

Anecdotally it doesn't seem that bad here,.wet and windy yes but I've seen worse so far this winter. Of course it may get worse later this evening.

[78/79]

36 minutes ago, Bristawl Si said:

A predicted 60mph is the highest forecast, for here, at around 22.00 this eve (Weather&Radar).

But drops back to 40mph, only a couple of hours later.

We're predicted to have wind gusts topping  out at 54 mph, but seeing we're pretty exposed here on the Mendip slopes, I reckon 60 would be closer to the mark. 

[Mcconnor8]

Just now, Bats32 said:

Anecdotally it doesn't seem that bad here,.wet and windy yes but I've seen worse so far this winter. Of course it may get worse later this evening.

The bad winds for Scotland won't arrive until 9PM and peaking from 12-3

[Derecho]

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

That is wrong. This is a deepening low so higher pressure would push the more severe gusts north. 

If the low was further north then yes but the Iberian heights alone won't lead to downgrades in gusts. A 5mph difference is minor when it comes to a storm this big. I saw these kind of differences when I was on shift in the lead up to storm Eunice hitting. 

[Bats32]

Just now, Mcconnor8 said:

The bad winds for Scotland won't arrive until 9PM and peaking from 12-3

Yeah, just so far. Expecting worse later but the rain is bad enough, very heavy for hours now.

[Stormeh]

I wouldn’t be surprised if there is a sting jet later tonight in western Scotland/Central belt.

Edited January 21 by Stormeh

[Stuart Taylor]

1 hour ago, Zenarcher said:

Gusting mostly around 30mph here with 40mph being the highest so far, I'm not expecting the worst until about 10pm to reach my area. So far it's just rained a lot and caused a little bit of flooding.

Dunoon, my hometown, brilliant! Get out a walk along the West Bay tonight, my dad used to always take me along the prom when there was a big storm on. Hope all is well down there. 

[Jimmyh]

9 minutes ago, Nick123 said:

It's still a very severe storm however

Sorry iow can you say that it's been downgrading. Nothing I  the models I can see have downgraded it one bit 

[If Wishes made Weather]

I would suggest that Stansted observations are a little higher than the MO forecast.

[Liam Burge]

Seems like Isha is still intensifying.

[Jo Farrow]

5 minutes ago, Stormeh said:

I wouldn’t be surprised if there is a sting jet later tonight in western Scotland/Central belt.

It looks a possibility, UKV also showing a intense core in Moray Firth 03Z which doesn't look entirely due to being back over the sea

[Mcconnor8]

1 minute ago, Liam Burge said:

Seems like Isha is still intensifying.

Will be for the rest of the day, peaks around 1/2AM

[Bristawl Si]

Lashing it down now. The storm has truly arrived in BS34.