Storm Isha, Amber ⚠️

[matty40s]

The North American severe cold blast is giving rise to an accentuated jet. This should give us a nasty storm on Saturday, at the moment it looks like mainly North part of Ireland, Scotland in the firing line.

 

Edited January 19 by Jo Farrow
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[Penguin16]

100mph possible. Matt it’s for Sunday not Saturday

[Ross90]

The general theme this autumn/winter has been for lp's to end up drifting further south with each run. Hopefully this one doesn't as there hasn't been a good windstorm in the central belt for years. It'll get downgraded by Friday or Saturday anyway. I'd expect 55-65mph inland and maybe 70-80 around the coast.

[matty40s]

3 hours ago, Penguin16 said:

100mph possible. Matt it’s for Sunday not Saturday

Good point , well made...

Although will start to affect Ireland on late Saturday

[The PIT]

Yup looks nasty at the moment.

[If Wishes made Weather]

Impressive looking system this for Sunday.  The minimum 10m gust speeds being shown on the UKMO and GFS for any place in the UK except for an area around the Moray Firth is 60mph with many areas in excess of that.  Rather than the strongest winds being reserved for an area of the southern quadrant around the core of the low pressure system, in this case the strong winds are being modelled right along the frontal line which is orientated NE-SW and will cross the country during a period of around 12 hours on Sunday with Northern Ireland being impacted first, and East Anglia and Kent last.

[A Face like Thunder]

Yellow weather warning for wind now issued for Sunday for many areas of the UK. Very early, so must be some potential in it. Watch this space!

[Ross90]

Gfs has it weaker and much further south as expected.

[The PIT]

2 minutes ago, Ross90 said:

Gfs has it weaker and much further south as expected.

Err well not a lot of change in wind intensity the duration now lasts into Monday.

[Ross90]

The 70 mph + inland has disappeared, it's mostly 50-60 mph across most areas. The potential storm on Tuesday into Wednesday looks more severe.

[AWD]

Latest UKV has wind gusts widely in excess of 50mph for the majority of the UK at some point Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening, plenty of areas, inland included forecast 60mph+ gusts;

Plenty strong enough to cause transport & structural damage in places.

Focus of any notable rainfall is across the northern half of the country, with the south seeing less rainfall here thankfully (IMBY ).

Mean winds always strongest through the Irish Sea into the Lancashire & Cumbrian coastline, as well as Dumfries.  Isle of Man in a prime location;

 

One positive is that the worst does appear to pass over pretty quickly.

As another poster mentioned above, although nothing notable, it’s not exactly a calm start to the new working week either, with gusty winds continuing well into Monday for some;

The GFS 12z does similar in continuing some noticeable wind gusts well into Monday across some parts of the UK;

 

I won’t post every chart for every timeframe but the Arpege 12z run is essentially similar to the above.  Mean wind speeds peaking at circa 30 - 40mph for many at some point;

with gusts widely in excess of 50 - 60mph at some point for many;

 

Edited January 17 by AWD

[If Wishes made Weather]

Icon and MetOffice continue to indicate 60 to 70 mph (100 - 110 kph) gusts in their raw output this morning for the first system Sunday to Monday.

[If Wishes made Weather]

… and worryingly, the GFS 6z suggests that the Yorks south will see winds which haven’t been seen for years inland.  GFS 6z though so maybe not to be understood so much as a hard prediction, more like something that is possible.   The other 6z offerings are similar to the 0z suites - 60 to 70 mph.

[stripeyfox]

definitely keeping an eye on this one. If the current predictions firm up then we're looking at Amber warnings over a very large area. Perhaps Sunday evening into Monday will limit the risk for people being out and about.

Strong gusty winds always remind me of this terrible incident which I witnessed the aftermath of 20 odd years ago when an Everton supporter was struck and killed by flying debris on his way to watch a match in Leicester.

 

BBC NEWS | UK | England | Leicestershire | Tribute for dead football fan

NEWS.BBC.CO.UK

 

[cj114]

Yes, definitely one to watch out for. Since 1987 and 1991 I have a fear of Wind. Does so much damage and often kills.

[stripeyfox]

8 minutes ago, cj114 said:

Yes, definitely one to watch out for. Since 1987 and 1991 I have a fear of Wind. Does so much damage and often kills.

agree. I tend to avoid going out or driving in bad (windy) conditions. We don't usually get it too bad round here so it could be a big shock if it does pan out as forecast currently.

 

Stay safe 

[Ross90]

Wind speeds have been consistently decreasing across Scotland, no need for even a yellow warning here with the max gust forecast at 49mph where I am.

[A Face like Thunder]

Rain now added to the yellow wind warning for Sunday in Wales, the NW and NE of England, Yorkshire & Humberside and then into Scotland.

[alexisj9]

3 hours ago, Ross90 said:

Wind speeds have been consistently decreasing across Scotland, no need for even a yellow warning here with the max gust forecast at 49mph where I am.

Storm trending slightly south so you guy6 aren't in the worst of it, still plenty of time for change though, its a very early be aware warning really.

[Mapantz]

I mentioned in my regional thread that I am surprised by the lack of a yellow warning for the rest of the south coast.

The Met Office have me down for a good 6 - 8 hours of gusts up to 55mph. That's significant for my location as I am slightly sheltered. Some of the yellow warnings back in December didn't show wind gusts that high in the forecasts.

[If Wishes made Weather]

As far as I can see so far, the 12z suite continues the theme and strength of the winds.  I wonder if the MO are keeping their powder dry by showing western areas only so far, and then expanding areas and severity of the warnings on Saturday or so?

[Tim M]

12 minutes ago, If Wishes made Weather said:

As far as I can see so far, the 12z suite continues the theme and strength of the winds.  I wonder if the MO are keeping their powder dry by showing western areas only so far, and then expanding areas and severity of the warnings on Saturday or so?

Looking at the recent GFS, it seems to be that east is now worse. Quite concerned as my area, Mansfield in North Midlands / South Yorkshire, now has 75mph gusts! Certainly we havn't had gusts that strong since the 80s I think. 

[jellybaby1969]

It may trend further south ...

[saint]

Transport companies are certainly keeping a close eye on this and are no doubt getting briefings - South Western Railway, who have suffered quite a bit with storms this winter bringing down trees on the lines they run on, are already warning of possible disruption Sunday into Monday. 

[WYorksWeather]

Here's the 03z UKV from this morning. I'll post the 15z later on when it updates.