Storm Isha, Amber ⚠️

[EKRob]

4 hours ago, Frank Sierra said:

The storm in December was quite distressing for me, I live in a loft extension in what I think is quite an old house here in Driffield East Yorkshire and I had severe anxiety from the howling winds and roof creaking, the experience was really really horrible for me and now I’m worried about this storm.
 

Should I be worried about the roof being lifted up? Should I find somewhere else to stay? I would really appreciate your advice I really need some peace of mind I’m freaking out a little bit

I use earplugs to cope better with stormy weather.

[Glaswegianblizzard]

How come I’m seeing some people saying severe winds for England and Wales with some impact on Western Scotland, and others saying much greater impact on western Scotland?

Is the track that uncertain?

Edited January 20 by Glaswegianblizzard

[sunnijim]

14 minutes ago, Glaswegianblizzard said:

How come I’m seeing some people saying severe winds for England and Wales with some impact on Western Scotland, and others saying much greater impact on western Scotland?

Is the track that uncertain?

One or two models show high impacts for Scotland.

A blend of GFS wind predictions and Met Office wind predictions this morning show Scotland spared the worst of the wind.

Highest gusts from both of these sources reserved for the SE coast of England

[ManiaMuse]

33 minutes ago, EKRob said:

I use earplugs to cope better with stormy weather.

I did that last time we had windy weather at night and it made a huge difference. Managed to get a good night's sleep despite the creaks, rattles and whistles from the loft and windows whereas usually I would be tossing and turning and getting really anxious that something was falling off the roof.

Edited January 20 by ManiaMuse

[Paul]

@Nick F has written an in depth synoptic analysis for Storm Isha:

Synoptic Analysis: Storm Isha arrives Sunday night

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

---

A synoptic analysis looking at the development and impacts of Storm Isha arriving Sunday night and expected to bring widespread gales with potential for disruption.

 

Well worth a read..

[Bats32]

I live beside quite a few trees , the highest being really, really massive. Always fun and concerning at the same time watching it in a storm hoping it doesn't come down on us! I remember when I was young , I had a massive pine tree in my garden and it would literally almost double over in high winds, its roots were at an angle up and out of the ground because of the high wind westerlies!

[Frank Sierra]

2 hours ago, Retron said:

I live in bungalow with a 1970s loft conversion, in north Kent. It survived the Great Storm of 1987 but put the fear of storms into me for life (I was 8 at the time and honestly thought the roof was going to blow off. We did lose a few slates from the pitched roof beyond the dormer). You don't need to worry really unless you feel the loft conversion itself wobbling with each gust - that happened in 1987 but hasn't happened since. 

Your roof (I'm assuming flat, like mine) will only lift off if the timbers or decking underneath are rotting, it always sounds much worse than it is. Similarly, if you have any issues with your soffit boards or roof edging, you'll know all about it... and in my case, the guttering's started creaking and banging in high winds, which isn't good.

I had two ideas for this weekend: either stay in a hotel near the wolf centre I visit (which probably isn't a good idea, as I'd have to come back in the rush hour on Monday, which is likely to be worse than normal due to disruption), or move my bed into a different room. That's the option I'm going to pick - I'm a very light sleeper and even if things aren't falling down, the various creaks, bangs and groans usually keep me awake!

Thank you so much for replying. This roof isn’t flat it’s just a “normal” roof, the inside of the loft has been converted into a room with a small bathroom but it’s been done quite poorly. During the last storm in December I could feel some of the gusts impacting the walls and roof and it was shaking ever so slightly. It was such a horrible experience I had really bad anxiety and don’t really want to stay here whilst this storm is going on because the last one was bad but this one looks a lot worse. 
 

The building has been here a long time though so surely its survived strong winds over its life? I think I'm just worried because how terrifying the last one was up here and maybe a little paranoid about the roof coming off. 

[Paul]

1 hour ago, sunnijim said:

One or two models show high impacts for Scotland.

A blend of GFS wind predictions and Met Office wind predictions this morning show Scotland spared the worst of the wind.

Highest gusts from both of these sources reserved for the SE coast of England

Not too sure I agree with that - most models have very strong gusts in the se and indeed along the south coast, but most, if not all show the highest gusts along western coasts (and higher, exposed spots in the north) - including Scotland, with eastern/northern coasts coming into play later too.

There's a second phase shown on many models, later in the night with a core of very strong winds moving across Scotland - even the GFS has this, but if you're viewing the three hourly version, it jumps from west coast to east coast between frames.  

And beyond all that, it's going to be widely very windy, even inland. 

 

 

[sunnijim]

I took a few locations, Newquay, Blackpool, Newcastle and Inverness.

They either equaled or were below progged highest gusts for Hastings.

GFS/ met office.

Semantics now really, the real interest in terms of severity is the ECM solution which shows some really noteworthy impacts around a tighter core toward NW Scotland at 90mph +.

Impacts over England inland due largely to the prolonged nature of gusts in excess of 60mph.

Coastal Southern Britain as it stands see gusts toward 70mph, not that noteworthy, these seen three or four times in  a Zonal Winter ( again the prolonged nature of these gusts is more unusual)

Hitting 80mph as suggested on the SE coast amber, a once every two or three years snenario.

Edited January 20 by sunnijim

[Ice Day]

So, Isha is coming ashore tomorrow, and based on the GFS 6z, the strongest winds are going to be starting around 6.00pm in the West, through to the early hours of Monday morning in the East

  

Whilst at this point, the storm isn't exceptional, I would definitely say it's not going to be a bog-standard winter storm.  Some areas are likely to experience 50-60mph winds for over 6 hours, which is very unusual.

If the storm hits with the intensity advertised by the 6z, there will be damage, trees down and power cuts, possibly extensive. 

The good news is, being late on a Sunday evening, the roads should be quiet.

[Paul]

The met office have updated and extended their amber warnings, covering all of Scotland as well now.

UK weather warnings - Met Office

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

Not often you see amber's as widely as this.. (Sunday and Monday)

 

Edited January 20 by Paul

[Skullzrulerz]

I'm somewhat surprised that the Amber Warning hasn't been extended further into the South West England?

[Glaswegianblizzard]

38 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

I took a few locations, Newquay, Blackpool, Newcastle and Inverness.

They either equaled or were below progged highest gusts for Hastings.

GFS/ met office.

Semantics now really, the real interest in terms of severity is the ECM solution which shows some really noteworthy impacts around a tighter core toward NW Scotland at 90mph +.

Impacts over England inland due largely to the prolonged nature of gusts in excess of 60mph.

Coastal Southern Britain as it stands see gusts toward 70mph, not that noteworthy, these seen three or four times in  a Zonal Winter ( again the prolonged nature of these gusts is more unusual)

Hitting 80mph as suggested on the SE coast amber, a once every two or three years snenario.

Inverness is quite a long way from the Glasgow area. It may well have lower gusts, probably because it will be sheltered by the western highlands and the Cairngorms to an extent.

Remember, Scotlands population may be smaller, but it’s 1/3 of the landmass of Great Britain, so in this context is fairly big.

[Scuba steve]

Already quite windy here 

[sunnijim]

Judging by the Met office warning update, they don't buy into some of the more ott model solutions .( 90mph to 100mph)

80mph to 85mph for the western isles not so unusual, but perhaps more so if, as suggested, these gusts effect central parts of Scotland.

 

[A Face like Thunder]

Yellow wind warning now issued for Tuesday into Wednesday.

[Liam Burge]

25 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

I'm somewhat surprised that the Amber Warning hasn't been extended further into the South West England?

I agree with this. Although the current yellow warning is just one stage below the Amber warning so it could potentially get expanded tomorrow morning. However, that will only give people around 8-10 hours lead time before the winds start; begs the question on if an amber should have been issued earlier. I've definitely been under amber wind warnings for less than is currently showing.

[sunnijim]

Just now, Liam Burge said:

I agree with this. Although the current yellow warning is just one stage below the Amber warning so it could potentially get expanded tomorrow morning. However, that will only give people around 8-10 hours lead time before the winds start; begs the question on if an amber should have been issued earlier. I've definitely been under amber wind warnings for less than is currently showing.

I think the real question is will we get a red.

A narrow swathe when the high res models show consistency across central Scotland perhaps?

I'm mind boggled by the rationale at times for warnings but if there is a time of day criteria then red may not be deemed necessary for postman and milkmen

[Liam Burge]

With the new amber warning that has been introduced into parts of Scotland, the impact matrix has been increased to a 'high' impact. This could allow a red wind warning to be issued for parts of Scotland tomorrow if confidence increases in the track.

[damianslaw]

58 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

So, Isha is coming ashore tomorrow, and based on the GFS 6z, the strongest winds are going to be starting around 6.00pm in the West, through to the early hours of Monday morning in the East

  

Whilst at this point, the storm isn't exceptional, I would definitely say it's not going to be a bog-standard winter storm.  Some areas are likely to experience 50-60mph winds for over 6 hours, which is very unusual.

If the storm hits with the intensity advertised by the 6z, there will be damage, trees down and power cuts, possibly extensive. 

The good news is, being late on a Sunday evening, the roads should be quiet.

I guess if there is ever a good time for a storm, is late on a Sunday.. few people out and about, but repurcussions for Monday. Never a good time really, but impacts lessoned due to timescales.. to people primarily.

[Fiona Robertson]

51 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

I took a few locations, Newquay, Blackpool, Newcastle and Inverness.

They either equaled or were below progged highest gusts for Hastings.

GFS/ met office.

Semantics now really, the real interest in terms of severity is the ECM solution which shows some really noteworthy impacts around a tighter core toward NW Scotland at 90mph +.

Impacts over England inland due largely to the prolonged nature of gusts in excess of 60mph.

Coastal Southern Britain as it stands see gusts toward 70mph, not that noteworthy, these seen three or four times in  a Zonal Winter ( again the prolonged nature of these gusts is more unusual)

Hitting 80mph as suggested on the SE coast amber, a once every two or three years snenario.

One of the complicating factors is that the central belt of Scotland is basically a valley running west to east, from coast to coast. Given the right direction it can act like a giant wind tunnel. I think it was the last bunch of snow warnings which showed this topography quite nicely - weather warnings north and south of the central belt, but nothing for the central belt itself. And it's through that wind tunnel that the M8 runs, from Glasgow to Edinburgh. It's also the most densly populated part of Scotland. A slight difference in wind direction can make a huge difference in wind strength. I'd hate to be a forecaster with responsibility for pinning down max gust strengths through this area when the precise track of the storm is still a tad uncertain.

[matty40s]

 

[Fiona Robertson]

36 minutes ago, Glaswegianblizzard said:

Inverness is quite a long way from the Glasgow area. It may well have lower gusts, probably because it will be sheltered by the western highlands and the Cairngorms to an extent.

Remember, Scotlands population may be smaller, but it’s 1/3 of the landmass of Great Britain, so in this context is fairly big.

And over 90% of Scotland's population lives in the central belt.

[Bats32]

18 minutes ago, Fiona Robertson said:

One of the complicating factors is that the central belt of Scotland is basically a valley running west to east, from coast to coast. Given the right direction it can act like a giant wind tunnel. I think it was the last bunch of snow warnings which showed this topography quite nicely - weather warnings north and south of the central belt, but nothing for the central belt itself. And it's through that wind tunnel that the M8 runs, from Glasgow to Edinburgh. It's also the most densly populated part of Scotland. A slight difference in wind direction can make a huge difference in wind strength. I'd hate to be a forecaster with responsibility for pinning down max gust strengths through this area when the precise track of the storm is still a tad uncertain.

I live just to the south of Glasgow on a hill and we usually get the worst of any weather as were slightly higher up. Along the M8 corridor is usually bad too.

[Ross90]

Met have finally upgraded their wind gusts to be more in line with the BBC. Peak gusts around 60mph between 10pm and midnight. Still bordering on the (Amber is a bit ott) but I can see why they've just stuck an Amber over Scotland.