Storm Isha, Amber ⚠️

[Mapantz]

The standout point for my area tomorrow night, is the longevity of the high gusts. 

Over the last couple of years, there's maybe a 1 hour window of peak gusts, with a difference of 10mph or more, on both sides of that window. Tomorrow's forecast gives 6 - 8 hours of almost the same gust speeds of 50 - 60mph. That's highly impressive for here!

Edited January 20 by Mapantz

[LeeKay/]

Heads up, or down if i may. The ISS (International Space Station) track will take it over the mid Atlantic in 40 mins or so, It may just be out of light to see anything but i thought i would mention it anyway.

Live stream (in typing its out of signal range but it will connect in a while)

 

ISS Tracking

Current position of the ISS

WWW.ASTROVIEWER.NET

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The current position of the ISS and its ground track.

 

[birdman]

1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

The standout point for my area tomorrow night, is the longevity of the high gusts. 

Over the last couple of years, there's maybe a 1 hour window of peak gusts, with a difference of 10mph or more, on both sides of that window. Tomorrow's forecast gives 6 - 8 hours of almost the same gust speeds of 50 - 60mph. That's highly impressive for here!

Funnily enough I was about to post similar. I cannot remember a storm this intense for my area that has lasted 8 hours in recent times? We've had some 50mph gusts last few months I think but only for a short period. This will be around 60/65 mph so pretty wild by all accounts. 

[Thunders]

13 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

The standout point for my area tomorrow night, is the longevity of the high gusts. 

Over the last couple of years, there's maybe a 1 hour window of peak gusts, with a difference of 10mph or more, on both sides of that window. Tomorrow's forecast gives 6 - 8 hours of almost the same gust speeds of 50 - 60mph. That's highly impressive for here!

same here. 4 hours of the maximum winds,  all models except for icon show us getting 65-75 mph gusts for about 4 hours with 40 mph not easing off until about 9 am on Monday.  bound to change but this is the latest from my area. at midnight on Monday, the windspeed is expected to be about 40mph 

 

Edited January 20 by Thunders

[HurricaneSteve]

Here's hoping some of the models are overdoing it, but it's looking like a large wind field, with the whole of the Uk affected

I wonder if the Met Office are considering an update to Red at some point. Northern Scotland will get the worst of it

I think a good chance, the Amber wind warning will be expanded

Dartmoor is forecast gusts over 60mph, and will be just as strong as on the coast, but Dartmoor remains in a yellow warning

[MAF]

1 hour ago, TwisterGirl81 said:

No a mixture and no set pattern but I only do 3 x 12.5 hour day or night shifts a week as a health care assistant in the nhs, couldn’t do 4 like some do…(thankfully more day shifts than nights though) I usually do 2 shifts together than a couple days off then a third shift  then a day or two off again but it can vary sometimes . I booked my third shift off this week so it gives me a longer break until my next shifts, need it though, it’s a heavy ward, rewarding but very busy, you sleep well after a day shift that’s for sure. I’m glad I’m off so I can stay up and ride our the storm in the cosy comfort of my home with the wind howling outside

used to do 4-4 and its the best working pattern ever! bought my kids up on it, sometimes some of  the mothers thought i didn't work at all as i never slept between two 12 hours days and two twelve hour nights - two 12 hour days and two 12 hour nights, then a sleep day and then back to work ... bliss  

[SW Saltire]

7 minutes ago, MAF said:

used to do 4-4 and its the best working pattern ever! bought my kids up on it, sometimes some of  the mothers thought i didn't work at all as i never slept between two 12 hours days and two twelve hour nights - two 12 hour days and two 12 hour nights, then a sleep day and then back to work ... bliss  

I currently do 4/4 and it’s amazing. Best shift pattern i’ve worked, perhaps in the future I might go back to an office job and ideally get condensed hours and work Mon - Thurs 10 hour days. That would be a close second to 4/4.

 

Looks like a tasty storm coming, what’s most rare about this is that for 4 days in a row (Sat to Tues) it’ll be pretty windy. The sunny cold weather will be a distant memory soon sadly.

Edited January 20 by SW Saltire

[Nick123]

BBC weather at its best. 'Breezy.' Awful (albeit dangerous) wording

[on the coast]

1 minute ago, Nick123 said:

BBC weather at its best. 'Breezy.' Awful (albeit dangerous) wording

That is shocking? 

[Ross90]

1 hour ago, sunnijim said:

There's always alot of old bunkem spoken when it comes to these storms.

Worst in however many years sort of nonsense.

The talk of 70mph inland Southern England gusts ( if by inland we mean a good 30 miles from a coast,I can't see it)

The notable thing about this storm is the strong wind field covering just about the whole country.

Quite rare to see, gust  wise nothing  to suggest we are in trouble.

Values most would expect during the winter at some point ( perhaps excepting that central belt of Scotland ) if the 85mph gusts come to fruition  it might be a once in three year?

85mph in inland parts of the central belt is absolutely not a once in 3 year event. I'm 33 and I've only experienced 80mph + here twice.

[Nick123]

1 minute ago, on the coast said:

That is shocking? 

Yes. But not surprising. I remember them using the term breezy during storm arwen, one of the worst storms I've ever experienced here

[The Tall Weatherman]

The models have really been wobbling today.  Some models only give 60 MPH to warning areas up in Scotland whilst some bring an 100 MPH sting jet to the Scottish coastline. The models will probably gain strong accuracy tomorrow morning and now it’s just a waiting game.

What is really concerning is how long this system is going to last, strong gusts for 8 hours must put excessive strain on trees and would likely lead to multiple road closures across England, Scotland and Wales.

Here are some models below. Make sure to take the Arpege with a grain of salt.

 

[birdman]

1 minute ago, The Tall Weatherman said:

The models have really been wobbling today.  Some models only give 60 MPH to warning areas up in Scotland whilst some bring an 100 MPH sting jet to the Scottish coastline. The models will probably gain strong accuracy tomorrow morning and now it’s just a waiting game.

What is really concerning is how long this system is going to last, strong gusts for 8 hours must put excessive strain on trees and would likely lead to multiple road closures across England, Scotland and Wales.

Here are some models below. Make sure to take the Arpege with a grain of salt.

 

Met office will have to crack open a new pack of orange crayons if those gusts materialise in land.

[Methuselah]

7 minutes ago, Ross90 said:

85mph in inland parts of the central belt is absolutely not a once in 3 year event. I'm 33 and I've only experienced 80mph + here twice.

The only time I ever witnessed winds as devastating as that was in 1989, in Glenurquhart -- the day after, there were so many trees downed, it looked like the aftermath of Tunguska. I feel for you guys!

[LeeKay/]

The ISS (International Space Station) went into darkness, before the impending storm.

I did see some gravity waves maybe?

In the cloud formations just before the stations camera went into night.

A few screenshots just for referance. (Off topic but the ISS cam with tracker and lightning detectors from around the world is great to see from above in near real time downlink 3 mins and prosess)

 

[on the coast]

The worrying part for me is 3 constant days of Strong to Severe winds. Lost 2 big tree's already since these storms started. Luckily they have hit the garden and not the house.

[Nick123]

Just now, on the coast said:

The worrying part for me is 3 constant days of Strong to Severe winds. Lost 2 big tree's already since these storms started. Luckily they have hit the garden and not the house.

I don't think Tuesdays will be as bad or even named. Surely we can't have 2 consecutive named storms?

[Ross90]

1 minute ago, Methuselah said:

The only time I ever witnessed winds as devastating as that was in 1989, in Glenurquhart -- the day after, there were so many trees downed, it looked like the aftermath of Tunguska. I feel for you guys!

Dec 26th 1998 and Jan 3rd 2012 for me. The Jan 3rd storm was nothing unusual until the sting jet lined up perfectly with the central belt. 90 mph gusts for about 40 mins then it was completely calm less than an hour later, very odd. I remember seeing people up ladders fixing their roof on almost every street in the area over the following few weeks. It was quite disorientating at the time, everything was moving, the windows were bulging and shuddering and the trees were bent almost horizontal. 

[TwisterGirl81]

39 minutes ago, MAF said:

used to do 4-4 and its the best working pattern ever! bought my kids up on it, sometimes some of  the mothers thought i didn't work at all as i never slept between two 12 hours days and two twelve hour nights - two 12 hour days and two 12 hour nights, then a sleep day and then back to work ... bliss  

You’re a strong lady, must have been hard though, hope you are appreciated and hope you’re able to have more you time now.

we can request so many shifts but so far I’ve just left it up to the matron to pick my shifts but might start picking some but I not sure I could do 3 in a row ha might do a lot of night shifts at the weekend one month see if it boosts my wages by much 

Edited January 20 by TwisterGirl81

[Bazza118]

As many have said, gusts of 60mph or higher happen every winter, but there is usually a window of peak gusts, on a squall line for instance,  that last a hour and blow through (literally).   Storm Isha has window as long as 8 hrs. Ive a feeling quite a few trees will be toppled from continual gusts over such a long timespan. Quite a few covered scaffolding structures may also topple as the act like large sails. We wait to see. 

[lassie23]

I'm not sure this whole naming storms thing works, it should be binned. I have had really bad storms with no names and named storms that were tame and bad, it confuses the public and makes them think is this going to be bad or a non-event.

[Bricriu]

If Arome is correct then some inland parts of Ireland  are very close to red territory. Unless we see downgrades in the morning, which is possible, I think gusts of between 70- 80 mph are possible for places inland that are not used to having such gusts.  Even with lesser gusts, if the windy period is prolonged  there could be a lot of damage for some areas.

[TwisterGirl81]

25 minutes ago, Ross90 said:

85mph in inland parts of the central belt is absolutely not a once in 3 year event. I'm 33 and I've only experienced 80mph + here twice.

Im 42 and as far as I know I’ve only experienced winds around 80mph maybe 5 times here in Exeter that I know of, the worst being the burns day storm in 1990 but I was only 9…I think 87mph we got here.

it’s pretty strange when you consider I’m in the south west. Came close recently with storm cieron I think it was called, had it tracked 75 miles further north I’m sure we would have got around 80mph again  

[Just Before Dawn]

The shipping forecast should be lively later tonight. It's been a while since we've had a phenomenal sea state.

Edited January 20 by Just Before Dawn

[Eagle Eye]

Convective Outlook for it as all the wind warnings have already been done really.

The UK on the south side of a significant low with the stronger gusts should experience significant gusts potentially in excess of 80mph Sunday through Monday morning and further north the risk for severe wind gusts goes through Monday.

 

A couple models are even showing 95+ mph in Northern Scotland and occasionally hitting the Irish coasts. The UKV especially strong on this with 105mph in Northern Scotland and western Ireland. I find this unlikely just given the UKV's tendency to over strengthen the winds but it shows what's possible. 

 

Most of the UK not just the coasts could well see 50+ mph wind gusts, yes the land based friction will have some effect but given how strong the low is, we'll still likely see severe level winds throughout the UK and Ireland. It's especially interesting to see the widespread 100 mph 850's on the south side of this low when it's over the UK to show you how strong this low is. Surface friction and the viscous layer is therefore an extremely important dynamic in just how strong this low can be at the surface here.

 

Thunderstorm potential wise and the cyclonic vorticity ejects out PV lobes towards the SE of the lows centre which we normally wouldn't be hit by as its rare for a low to be this well placed for us but Ireland gets the full strength of the PV lobes latching onto WAA which drives line based thunderstorm developed perhaps stretched more horizontally with shear stretched storms. The push of WAA means that there's a Theta-E drive that on the backend of is where the PV lobes generally are found through mostly Ireland and this is where the best thunderstorm potential potentially is but the high saturation weakens that.

 

Apart from that, general lightning risk throughout most of the UK and Ireland with the energy just generally around. Mostly sporadic though.

 

Tornadic risk is mostly with high LLS combining with 100+ J/KG of 3CAPE, mainly in Ireland and despite the crosswise stretched showers andor thunderstorms, the 3CAPE and vorticity crossover with any ejected PV lobes means that for the UK there's a fairly high tornadic parameter. The streamwsie vorticity would come from a broken line segment, so keep an eye out for those. So there's a genuine potential for a tornado within all the straight line winds but would probably need a less saturated area of shower formation to actually work. Also a small chance with some weak line convection Sunday night over parts of the  midlands.