Storm Isha, Amber ⚠️

[sunnijim]

7 minutes ago, Paul said:

It's the met office's own model. So they may well react to it in due course, if it continues to show the same.

There's still a fair bit of uncertainty over the track and intensity of this one.

 

I never knew that. I thought NW had their own model the ukv.

Why I imagined that I will never know

[SummerShower]

I feel this coming storm is looking a bit like Feb 2020's Ciara quite a bit in all of shape, structure, windspeeds and areas affected.  Widespread gusts around 60mph inland, but not much more, but covering pretty much the whole country.  A notable cold front with potential squall line harbouring the strongest winds as well.  Also. Will be quite a long lasting system, despite it being later in the day.

[Nick123]

8 minutes ago, SummerShower said:

I feel this coming storm is looking a bit like Feb 2020's Ciara quite a bit in all of shape, structure, windspeeds and areas affected.  Widespread gusts around 60mph inland, but not much more, but covering pretty much the whole country.  A notable cold front with potential squall line harbouring the strongest winds as well.  Also. Will be quite a long lasting system, despite it being later in the day.

I think there's potential for stronger winds than 60mph especially in the north. I think 70mph looks fair widespread for Scotland and perhaps NE England. Interesting for sure

[on the coast]

The following storm could be as bad but not for so many places. UK weather is never without interest  

[Mcconnor8]

GFS 18z deepens it to 938mb North of Scotland, thankfully not as close to the UK but still pretty crazy, is that a sting jet over Ireland as well?

[sunnijim]

3 minutes ago, Mcconnor8 said:

GFS 18z deepens it to 938mb North of Scotland, thankfully not as close to the UK but still pretty crazy, is that a sting jet over Ireland as well?

Looks like GFS is developing a sister Low to the South over Iteland..

[January Snowstorm]

5 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

Looks like GFS is developing a sister Low to the South over Iteland..

Which of course will keep changing and provide quite the headache for the Met Office!

[Windysun1]

7 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

Looks like GFS is developing a sister Low to the South over Iteland..

Ah thats nice a family day out in ireland..

[Nick123]

21 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

Looks like GFS is developing a sister Low to the South over Iteland..

That's quite worrying surely? Looks like a sting jet!

[Mapantz]

25 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

Looks like GFS is developing a sister Low to the South over Iteland..

Is that not just a trough?

[Nick123]

What's worrying me about this storm is the timing, forecasts aren't updates as much during the weekend (bbc local doesn't update at all) now if this system keeps on strengthening we could be looking at widespread disruption on Monday morning and many people maybe caught out!

1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

Is that not just a trough?

Looks like a classic sting jet to me 

[sunnijim]

11 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Is that not just a trough?

At the moment, yes, a new feature that could develop into a small secondary low on future runs.

As it stands it will have the effect of squeezing the isobars further...

[Nick123]

Just now, sunnijim said:

At the moment, yes, a new feature that could develop into a small secondary low on future runs.

As it stands it will have the effect of squeezing the isobars further...

Is that not the definition of a sting jet? Usually they occur as the low exits though 

[TwisterGirl81]

The winds are even stronger for the southwest on the latest gfs so must be further south or sting jet? 75mph+ gusts for where I am, not had winds that strong in years if it does happen 

[sunnijim]

1 minute ago, Nick123 said:

Is that not the definition of a sting jet? Usually they occur as the low exits though 

I'm not sure that a sting jet would show in this manner on model output?

As #mapantz rightly said, likely an embedded trough

[Mcconnor8]

8 minutes ago, TwisterGirl81 said:

The winds are even stronger for the southwest on the latest gfs so must be further south or sting jet? 75mph+ gusts for where I am, not had winds that strong in years if it does happen 

It's slightly further North but much deeper on the 18z so higher wind speeds, is an outlier in that sense as no other models have it below 940mb but it is a possibility.

[TwisterGirl81]

13 minutes ago, Mcconnor8 said:

It's slightly further North but much deeper on the 18z so higher wind speeds, is an outlier in that sense as no other models have it below 940mb but it is a possibility.

We’ll see what tomorrows runs bring, I think Sunday could be a noisy night for us all

[LewisMcCallum]

UKV 21Z looking particularly nasty for west of Scotland. Would expect some more amber warnings up north by tomorrow if that holds.

[DaveF]

1 hour ago, LewisMcCallum said:

UKV 21Z looking particularly nasty for west of Scotland. Would expect some more amber warnings up north by tomorrow if that holds.

And 20Z looking extremely nasty for Cumbria and the Scottish border area.

 

[Josh Rubio]

I have a feeling further Amber weather warnings will be issued out by the Met Office in the next 24 hours or so… 

[Frank Sierra]

The storm in December was quite distressing for me, I live in a loft extension in what I think is quite an old house here in Driffield East Yorkshire and I had severe anxiety from the howling winds and roof creaking, the experience was really really horrible for me and now I’m worried about this storm.
 

Should I be worried about the roof being lifted up? Should I find somewhere else to stay? I would really appreciate your advice I really need some peace of mind I’m freaking out a little bit

[Jordan S]

A bit of an update and last one from me on this storm, though not much has changed since my post on Tuesday. This is not your run of the mill storm if you live inland over England and Wales although at the same time, not exceptional.  It does resemble storm Ciara, with one of the similarities being the uncertain strength of winds over western Scotland although they probably will receive very strong winds at some point tomorrow night into Monday.

9th February 2020..

 

Tomorrow/ Monday morning 

Gusts will likely peak up to around a damaging 75mph inland for parts of Wales and northern England, it’s largely what I’ve already said so apologies for being a broken record! For people unsure of what to possibly expect with those speeds, this could cause some locally significant damage to weaker temporary structures, significant damage to fences, damage to stronger and more sturdy trees with some being blown down and minor damage to homes directly impacted by such speeds which mainly consists of tile roofs (blowing some tiles off) and potential damage to gutters and siding which are exposed to those winds along with locally longer term power cuts of up to a few hours..

Extremely strong winds for parts of the west coast of Wales,northern England with gusts up to 85mph possible in one or two locations, these could effect western Scotland too late Sunday/ early Monday morning but less certain.

 

55-65mph for most of the rest of England tomorrow evening and overnight into Monday morning causing some local tree damage in places, perhaps blowing a few weaker trees down. Maybe a few roof tiles exposed to those actual speeds being dislodged or blown off with one or two places seeing power flickering on and off with gusts that exceed 60mph. 

 

Important to note, Isolated wind gusts of 70mph is possible in one or two inland spots over central England towards and around midnight tomorrow night, possibly eastern England too, I think the Icon and Arpege are over doing things ever so slightly for maximum gusts shown over slices of central/eastern England England that show 72/73mph but Icon overall having a better and more accurate handle on those fierce gusts over west Wales and northern England, so i suppose more faith can be put into this model compared with Arpege..

with maximum isolated gusts of 70mph if they where to occur you’re talking of an increased number of trees at risk of being damaged or blown down along with short term power cuts for some, with minor damage to buildings and homes exposed to those wind speeds which mainly consist of increased number of tiles potentially being dislodged/ blown off.

The longevity of these wind gust speeds will ofcourse increase the likelihood of the above occurring. This all accompanied at times by heavy rain and squally conditions.

I suppose sometimes it’s useful to put perspective on what wind gusts values will likely do as I’m sure some will imagine they are strong but not know what to expect with particular strengths.. hopefully it’s of some use. 

 

All in all a stormy several hours tomorrow evening/night for the majority of the uk with the widespread nature of such speeds being quite uncommon.
 

With another spell of damaging winds in some areas for Scotland, Northern Ireland and possibly northern England midweek next week but less so compared with tomorrow night. 

Edited January 20 by Jordan S

[Retron]

3 hours ago, Frank Sierra said:

The storm in December was quite distressing for me, I live in a loft extension in what I think is quite an old house here in Driffield East Yorkshire and I had severe anxiety from the howling winds and roof creaking, the experience was really really horrible for me and now I’m worried about this storm.
 

Should I be worried about the roof being lifted up? Should I find somewhere else to stay? I would really appreciate your advice I really need some peace of mind I’m freaking out a little bit

I live in bungalow with a 1970s loft conversion, in north Kent. It survived the Great Storm of 1987 but put the fear of storms into me for life (I was 8 at the time and honestly thought the roof was going to blow off. We did lose a few slates from the pitched roof beyond the dormer). You don't need to worry really unless you feel the loft conversion itself wobbling with each gust - that happened in 1987 but hasn't happened since. 

Your roof (I'm assuming flat, like mine) will only lift off if the timbers or decking underneath are rotting, it always sounds much worse than it is. Similarly, if you have any issues with your soffit boards or roof edging, you'll know all about it... and in my case, the guttering's started creaking and banging in high winds, which isn't good.

I had two ideas for this weekend: either stay in a hotel near the wolf centre I visit (which probably isn't a good idea, as I'd have to come back in the rush hour on Monday, which is likely to be worse than normal due to disruption), or move my bed into a different room. That's the option I'm going to pick - I'm a very light sleeper and even if things aren't falling down, the various creaks, bangs and groans usually keep me awake!

Edited January 20 by Retron

[If Wishes made Weather]

1 hour ago, Jordan S said:

A bit of an update and last one from me on this storm, though not much has changed since my post on Tuesday. This is not your run of the mill storm if you live inland over England and Wales although at the same time, not exceptional.  It does resemble storm Ciara, with one of the similarities being the uncertain strength of winds over western Scotland although they probably will receive very strong winds at some point tomorrow night into Monday.

9th February 2020..

 

Tomorrow/ Monday morning 

Gusts will likely peak up to around a damaging 75mph inland for parts of Wales and northern England, it’s largely what I’ve already said so apologies for being a broken record! For people unsure of what to possibly expect with those speeds, this could cause some locally significant damage to weaker temporary structures, significant damage to fences, damage to stronger and more sturdy trees with some being blown down and minor damage to homes directly impacted by such speeds which mainly consists of tile roofs (blowing some tiles off) and potential damage to gutters and siding which are exposed to those winds along with locally longer term power cuts of up to a few hours..

Extremely strong winds for parts of the west coast of Wales,northern England with gusts up to 85mph possible in one or two locations, these could effect western Scotland too late Sunday/ early Monday morning but less certain.

 

55-65mph for most of the rest of England tomorrow evening and overnight into Monday morning causing some local tree damage in places, perhaps blowing a few weaker trees down. Maybe a few roof tiles exposed to those actual speeds being dislodged or blown off with one or two places seeing power flickering on and off with gusts that exceed 60mph. 

 

Important to note, Isolated wind gusts of 70mph is possible in one or two inland spots over central England towards and around midnight tomorrow night, possibly eastern England too, I think the Icon and Arpege are over doing things ever so slightly for maximum gusts shown over slices of central/eastern England England that show 72/73mph but Icon overall having a better and more accurate handle on those fierce gusts over west Wales and northern England, so i suppose more faith can be put into this model compared with Arpege..

with maximum isolated gusts of 70mph if they where to occur you’re talking of an increased number of trees at risk of being damaged or blown down along with short term power cuts for some, with minor damage to buildings and homes exposed to those wind speeds which mainly consist of increased number of tiles potentially being dislodged/ blown off.

The longevity of these wind gust speeds will ofcourse increase the likelihood of the above occurring. This all accompanied at times by heavy rain and squally conditions.

I suppose sometimes it’s useful to put perspective on what wind gusts values will likely do as I’m sure some will imagine they are strong but not know what to expect with particular strengths.. hopefully it’s of some use. 

 

All in all a stormy several hours tomorrow evening/night for the majority of the uk with the widespread nature of such speeds being quite uncommon.
 

With another spell of damaging winds in some areas for Scotland, Northern Ireland and possibly northern England midweek next week but less so compared with tomorrow night. 

Excelllent post.  I note also that the Arpege is up there with the Icon at winds quite exceptional for inland southern parts:

[Weather-history]

ECM 0z looks fierce for the Western Isles