Storm Isha, Amber ⚠️

[Rammie]

Only the second time we've got to the letter I, and it's only January.

[Bats32]

46 minutes ago, Ross90 said:

It seems a bit odd that the met have upgraded the warning to Amber in strathclyde while also lowering the wind speeds. The fact that an Amber warning has been issued is now likely to cause disruption but if the wind speeds are similar to those being forecast then an Amber is completely unnecessary for much of central Scotland. 

I was looking at their graphic on Twitter and thinking that myself, the wind speed graphic didn't correspond to the Amber warning. Looked strange to me but they're probably hedging their bets and widening the warning.

 

Edited January 19 by Bats32

[Jo Farrow]

Storm Isha announced as finale in a very windy, but milder, weekend

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

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Storm Isha will arrive later on Sunday. The weekend looks windy, wet in the west but milder A risk of flooding in the heavy rain and thaw but it's Sunday night that could be stormy.

 

[Wade]

Combining autumn 2023 and this winter, it is turning out to be a rather active one for storms with Isha being the 9th one and a chance of the Tuesday storm being the 10th named one.

[Penguin16]

Is it fair to say they’ve gone amber for the longevity and frequency of the gusts rather than the wind speeds. 50 to 60mph for NW areas is nothing exceptional with 70mph possible in a couple of places. 80mph exposed coastal areas is no doubt rough but 50 to 60mph an amber seems a bit excessive for that. 

[Ross90]

8 minutes ago, Penguin16 said:

Is it fair to say they’ve gone amber for the longevity and frequency of the gusts rather than the wind speeds. 50 to 60mph for NW areas is nothing exceptional with 70mph possible in a couple of places. 80mph exposed coastal areas is no doubt rough but 50 to 60mph an amber seems a bit excessive for that. 

Most of their warnings recently have been excessive or premature. It has been an average storm season but we're somehow likely to be on 10 after this week...

[kate1]

10 minutes ago, Ross90 said:

Most of their warnings recently have been excessive or premature. It has been an average storm season but we're somehow likely to be on 10 after this week...

To be honest their last storm warning for severe winds came too late, at least here in the South East where thousands of commuters were stranded in the evening after train services were suspended due to fallen trees on the railway lines. If they'd put out an Amber warning a day or so beforehand I suspect many people would have arranged to work from home that day. So maybe they are erring on the side of caution this time. 

 

Edited January 19 by kate1

[Thunders]

ive got a school trip on Monday. ive got a feeling that's not happening. the last warning came way too late too. our trees were ripped out of the ground where i live. pretty sure we expected 40-50mph but it was more like 60-70?

[alexisj9]

2 hours ago, Liam Burge said:

I do suspect the amber warning to be expanded tomorrow morning given this wording for the yellow wind warning. I believe more of the SW will be included in this amber warning. 

It doesn't look like a red warning is likely, at least in my opinion, however if models do uptrend or show Isha deepening faster than expected, a red warning could potentially be given out.

Sting jet perhaps, its in it strengthening phase over us. I'd prefer one not happen, haven't checked the fax.

[CLH]

Hoping that this one doesn't turn out like Darwin (2014)

[Mcconnor8]

UKMO 12z trends it slightly further North and deeper than the 0z run, max wind gusts for each run below. Looks worse for North England, Scotland and Northern Ireland.

 

[Thunders]

Just now, Mcconnor8 said:

UKMO 12z trends it slightly further North and deeper than the 0z run, max wind gusts for each run below. Looks worse for North England, Scotland and Northern Ireland.

 

the models have been back and forth, there is still alot of time for things to change considering it is still well out at sea and only starting to form. 

[Skullzrulerz]

5 minutes ago, Mcconnor8 said:

UKMO 12z trends it slightly further North and deeper than the 0z run, max wind gusts for each run below. Looks worse for North England, Scotland and Northern Ireland.

 

In turn it should mean that more Southern/Western regions are somewhat spared from the worst winds.

[Bats32]

Don't think track details will be firmed up until tomorrow. Still quite a way out.

[matty40s]

 

[The PIT]

A very rare case of the models strengthening the system. Normally they start strong and either vanish or arrive much weaker than originally predicted. The wind direction on Sunday maybe our saving grace although we have managed a 77mph gust this year from that direction. 

[Mapantz]

UKV has strengthened wind speeds further for here. I've been under an amber warning for less before.

[WYorksWeather]

For completeness, I'll post the whole series of UKV frames for Sunday into Monday. These are hourly from 9am-9pm, then three-hourly.

9am-midday:

   

1pm-4pm:

   

5pm-8pm:

   

9pm-midnight (three-hourly):

 

3am-midday Monday:

   

You can actually see the beginnings of the next storm on the last couple of frames! Will be a wild few days Sunday-Tuesday if this is right.

One of the slight adjustments is that there seems to be a hit to Scotland in the early hours of Monday, the track seems to take it more on a SW to NE kind of alignment.

Rare to see a storm with such widespread damaging potential - this isn't focused at all. Almost anywhere could see gusts of 50mph or more, and quite a lot of areas will see 70mph. Even 80-90mph may be possible for some exposed areas on Irish sea coasts or into Scotland.

[Paul]

Some significant gusts showing on the UKV when zoomed in a bit - closing in on 100mph in the western isles and potentially also northeast Scotland. And 95mph over the the high ground of Northern England.

 

 

[on the coast]

When was the last time we had a severe storm pass through followed by another one a day later?

[Ross90]

Just now, on the coast said:

When was the last time we had a severe storm pass through followed by another one a day later?

It's not uncommon for similar patterns of deep lows passing through close together but having named storms less than 2 days apart probably hasn't happened that often.

[SqueakheartLW]

30 minutes ago, on the coast said:

When was the last time we had a severe storm pass through followed by another one a day later?

Don't know the last time but I do remember back end of October 2000.

On the 29th we had gusts around 70mph from one storm. This was followed by a slight lull before the most severe storm of the autumn and for many years came in during the early hours of the 30th which brought destructive winds with widespread gusts over southern half of UK around 90mph and snow in northern England too.

 

[sunnijim]

1 hour ago, Paul said:

Some significant gusts showing on the UKV when zoomed in a bit - closing in on 100mph in the western isles and potentially also northeast Scotland. And 95mph over the the high ground of Northern England.

 

 

Met office aren't seeing anything worthy of an amber for Scotland so far?

Does this model have any backing elsewhere in terms of these significant gusts.?

Looks like a configuration issue with the LP  ( isobars tighter round the central core compared to other models) prompting these type of gusts on that model in an area under yellow warnings.

Would warrent an upgrade from yellow to red.

Edited January 19 by sunnijim

[Paul]

It's the met office's own model. So they may well react to it in due course, if it continues to show the same.

There's still a fair bit of uncertainty over the track and intensity of this one.

 

[The PIT]

1 hour ago, on the coast said:

When was the last time we had a severe storm pass through followed by another one a day later?

We used to have longer spells of windy weather end of Jan 2002 into Feb 2002 springs to mind.

https://www.sheffieldweather.co.uk/stevenson-2002.htm