Storm Isha, Amber ⚠️

[WeatherWatchmanG]

2 minutes ago, Jimmyh said:

They never do its meteo group. No longer the met office 

However they did mention the winds several days ago on the BBC on YouTube for it's weather channel. I even mentioned this days ago when asking about the winds it's video and computerised forecast did point and illude to.

[matty40s]

Its hotting up on the Twitter...

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

ICON seems to have upgraded wind speeds on it’s 0z run compared to its 18z- 

I make that widespread inland 60-70mph gusts with 80mph gusts in more exposed locations.

Widespread amber warning is on its way I’m guessing.

 

[ModestMention]

The 03Z UKV look like a slight decrease. 

Today 03Z on the left and 15Z yesterday on the right.

 

[If Wishes made Weather]

The 0z suite confirms the MO position of the worsening of this storm.  Looking like gusts of 75 mph inland are now reasonable to expect across swathes of the country including the south eastern quadrant.  Add 10 mph to this for areas with altitude or costal or otherwise exposure.   Don’t forget that the increase in energy that the energy in wind increases proportionally to its speed, but not at a 1 to 1 ratio, its more than that.  Roughly, in terms of energy output on turbine blades wind speed has an approximately cubic relationship.    For the purposes of ‘impact’ then when imagining the damage that a storm can do, a 5mph estimated increase in the speed of gusts from, say, 60 to 65 mph has a much greater effect than from 50 to 55 mph.  Much more energy is involved now and I cannot imagine anything other than almost blanket amber warnings being issued soon.

[sunnijim]

A cursory glance at gfs wind predictions and Met Office predictions show that the highest gusts are reserved for the SE coast of England ( 60mph to 70mph) met office and (70mph to 80mph) gfs.

The wind warning from the met office seems to be out of date given the runs in the last 48hrs ( example Glasgow) under a wind warning with gusts progged at 50mph and Dover no warning with gusts toward 70mph using the met offices own data.

[Skullzrulerz]

Amber Warning for Wind just came out.

 

[sunnijim]

Updated to include Amber for the SE coast.

From nothing straight to Amber.

Named storm.

Please update title mods.

UK weather warnings - Met Office

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 

[Lord Grogon]

Wow, a warning for the whole country. Impressive. 

On a side point though, the Met Office really need to improve their warnings webpage. It's so fiddly and confusing.

[Paul]

Latest from Jo:

 

 

[Jordan S]

Safe to say that almost all locations across the UK south of northern Scotland will have wind gusts of between 50-65mph for several hours from later Sunday into early Monday, higher gusts than this ofcourse along parts of the coasts of west Wales and northwest England and possibly Northern Ireland and parts of Scotland.. no need for any more detail (except for far southeast England) on wind gusts as covered that in previous post.. but a prolonged spell of gales for many and more damage likely to be caused in parts of southeast England compared with the storm a couple of weeks ago even with similar strength gusts, due to the longevity. Can see why the met office have issued an amber for Kent and Sussex, gusts could even peak upto 65-75mph inland here and possibly as stated locally a tad more along that coastal stretch.. rather serious especially for these areas not so accustomed to such strong and likely damaging winds. 
 

[James Maidstone]

Two things which strike me about Isha are:

1.)  Just how much of the country will be affected by these winds, it seems quite rare for the whole country more or less to be under a wind warning

2.) The duration, whilst the wind speeds aren't going to be the highest ever, places will be seeing warning-worthy wind gusts for12-15 hours, often storms pass through within a few hours, but many places will have winds of 50-60mph+ for a long time

[Josh Rubio]

First time I’ve seen BBC Breaking News reporting a named storm. Could this be more serious than we initially thought? 

[Harveyslugger]

1 minute ago, James Maidstone said:

Two things which strike me about Isha are:

1.)  Just how much of the country will be affected by these winds, it seems quite rare for the whole country more or less to be under a wind warning

2.) The duration, whilst the wind speeds aren't going to be the highest ever, places will be seeing warning-worthy wind gusts for12-15 hours, often storms pass through within a few hours, but many places will have winds of 50-60mph+ for a long time

Yes I agree the wind field of this storm is huge.very impressive 

[rwtwm]

58 minutes ago, Lord Grogon said:

Wow, a warning for the whole country. Impressive. 

On a side point though, the Met Office really need to improve their warnings webpage. It's so fiddly and confusing.

I find the 'accessible alternative' much easier to deal with. You do have to scan the list for your region, but when there's a bunch of overlapping warnings, it's a lot easier to parse.

[sunnijim]

Certainly don't feel there is an overplaying on this occasion from the Met office.

Quite unusual to have a System deepening as it crosses the UK.

They always seem to have more about them than named storms that have done their deepening in the Atlantic and fill slowly crossing the UK.

The look of the fax charts similar to the Burns day Storm in January 90.

Although has to be said winds at this stage not likely to come close.

[Harveyslugger]

2 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

Certainly don't feel there is an overplaying on this occasion from the Met office.

Quite unusual to have a System deepening as it crosses the UK.

They always seem to have more about them than named storms that have done their deepening in the Atlantic and fill slowly crossing the UK.

The look of the fax charts similar to the Burns day Storm in January 90.

Although has to be said winds at this stage not likely to come close.

It could even deepen quicker than forecasted when it crosses the UK which would make it even more damaging 

Edited January 19, 2024 by Harveyslugger
Spelling

[CLH]

Looking rough and, as above, the spread and duration are very worrying. Earlier in the week it looked like it wouldn't coincide with high (though neap) tides. Now looks like it does, at least on the Monday morning

[Bald Eagle]

26 minutes ago, Josh Rubio said:

First time I’ve seen BBC Breaking News reporting a named storm. Could this be more serious than we initially thought? 

No..its because they have no news

[sunnijim]

30 minutes ago, Harveyslugger said:

It could even deepen quicker than forecasted when it crosses the UK which would make it even more damaging 

People are probably a little care worn with these warnings, some don't match the hype.

It is a good job the worst of it will be overnight for most as imo it has the potential to be the most damaging this winter if we discount the Jersey storm in October.

Worse than warnings given?

I think adjustments now will be minor, that said, the longevity of the high winds is worth noting too.

3 or four hours for most of us.

[alexisj9]

41 minutes ago, Josh Rubio said:

First time I’ve seen BBC Breaking News reporting a named storm. Could this be more serious than we initially thought? 

Depends who you mean, I've taken this seriously since it first showed on the meto model, I did dismis it the day vefore when gfs first showed it for obvious reasons. It's not just the low which has winds, but also the squeeze of iso bars due to the high south of us, that's causing the wide high wind zone.

[Ross90]

It seems a bit odd that the met have upgraded the warning to Amber in strathclyde while also lowering the wind speeds. The fact that an Amber warning has been issued is now likely to cause disruption but if the wind speeds are similar to those being forecast then an Amber is completely unnecessary for much of central Scotland. 

[Liam Burge]

I do suspect the amber warning to be expanded tomorrow morning given this wording for the yellow wind warning. I believe more of the SW will be included in this amber warning. 

It doesn't look like a red warning is likely, at least in my opinion, however if models do uptrend or show Isha deepening faster than expected, a red warning could potentially be given out.

[matty40s]

Its started to form now..

 

[Lord Grogon]

1 hour ago, Harveyslugger said:

Yes I agree the wind field of this storm is huge.very impressive 

It reminds me a bit of Storm Ciara. That had an amber warning over the whole of England and Wales. 

Same concerns as well. A huge wind field with uncertainly up the last moment where the windiest bit would be. In the end there was a small wave that passed through generating higher winds in parts of C England.