Storm Isha, Amber ⚠️

[A Face like Thunder]

44 minutes ago, Liam Burge said:

With the new amber warning that has been introduced into parts of Scotland, the impact matrix has been increased to a 'high' impact. This could allow a red wind warning to be issued for parts of Scotland tomorrow if confidence increases in the track.

Shades of 'The Glasgow Hurricane' of 14th - 15th January 1968 in which 20 people were killed and 1000 homes badly damaged (Eden). I recall visiting a friend in Stirling sometime after the event and seeing swathes of trees still lying on the ground. 

Although there could certainly be arguments about upgrading the warnings earlier rather than later, I am certain that the authorities are already well aware of the potential for Storm Isha and are taking steps to reduce the effects on the communities at most risk.   

[WeatherWatchmanG]

53 minutes ago, Ross90 said:

Met have finally upgraded their wind gusts to be more in line with the BBC. Peak gusts around 60mph between 10pm and midnight. Still bordering on the (Amber is a bit ott) but I can see why they've just stuck an Amber over Scotland.

met office haven't upgraded everywhere still showing 52mph in london doesn't match the charts.

[Scribbler]

I'm reading that winds of 80 mph are expected widely in Scotland and that somehow concentrates our interest on that area.

Sure, I'd hate to live in a place expecting winds that strong but I live down here in Taunton, Somerset which is generally a pretty well-sheltered place.

However, I notice from the Met Office page that we can expect gusts, between 7 and 11 pm on Sunday, of 53 mph - which is apparently 46 knots.  So I'm guessing that the Scottish wind gusts will be considerably higher than 80 mph.

That's remarkably high for us considering that the storm is mainly "up north" and I'm not sure that I've seen such a wide range of places so far apart both due to get winds so far in excess of gale force.  This Storm Isha is a BIG storm!

(Also, if those winds do actually arrive, our neighbours fence - between us and them - is a sure gonner!)

[Bricriu]

It looks likes the North West  Coast of Ireland and  the west coast of Scotland  will bear the brunt of it, but damaging winds nearly everywhere  due to the huge windfield

[matty40s]

 

[Retron]

5 hours ago, Frank Sierra said:

Thank you so much for replying. This roof isn’t flat it’s just a “normal” roof, the inside of the loft has been converted into a room with a small bathroom but it’s been done quite poorly. During the last storm in December I could feel some of the gusts impacting the walls and roof and it was shaking ever so slightly. It was such a horrible experience I had really bad anxiety and don’t really want to stay here whilst this storm is going on because the last one was bad but this one looks a lot worse. 
 

The building has been here a long time though so surely its survived strong winds over its life? I think I'm just worried because how terrifying the last one was up here and maybe a little paranoid about the roof coming off. 

A "normal" roof should be absolutely fine, despite the creaking and groaning, although the walls shaking isn't particularly fun for you! The thing to listen out for in your case is a dull sort of grinding or clunking noise, as of roof tiles rubbing together... if you hear that, it means your tiles are being lifted, and that's the precursor to them coming off. I'll never forget that grinding noise in 1987, followed by slithering and a crash... thankfully something I've not heard since. I had my verge and ridge tiles rebedded earlier this year, as they'd started to lift in the wind (the mortar having cracked). It's not a glamorous thing, but it helps bring peace of mind. 

Hopefully it won't be too bad for you! I know others have suggested earplugs, but if you have super-sensitive hearing as I do, all they do is dull the noises somewhat, not eliminate them. And if you're worrying about things flying off, you'll be all tensed up too, which doesn't help. 

[Somerset girl]

I've been to  Exmouth in Devon this afternoon . The sea was very choppy and the wind was difficult to walk in . 

I've looked on windy.com and the wind is already at 35knots .

Is this Isha warming up and arriving early and also its on the south coast , I thought the main brunt of it was  starting north Cornwall coasts , north Somerset,  Wales coast and up through to Scotland later on .

The Irish Sea also looks very stormy at 60knots . 

 

[Somerset girl]

2 hours ago, Scribbler said:

I'm reading that winds of 80 mph are expected widely in Scotland and that somehow concentrates our interest on that area.

Sure, I'd hate to live in a place expecting winds that strong but I live down here in Taunton, Somerset which is generally a pretty well-sheltered place.

However, I notice from the Met Office page that we can expect gusts, between 7 and 11 pm on Sunday, of 53 mph - which is apparently 46 knots.  So I'm guessing that the Scottish wind gusts will be considerably higher than 80 mph.

That's remarkably high for us considering that the storm is mainly "up north" and I'm not sure that I've seen such a wide range of places so far apart both due to get winds so far in excess of gale force.  This Storm Isha is a BIG storm!

(Also, if those winds do actually arrive, our neighbours fence - between us and them - is a sure gonner!)

I'm in Taunton too and it does get surprisingly windy here and I'll be looking out for fences and such like . Its already gusty here this afternoon.  

[Nick123]

3 minutes ago, Somerset girl said:

I've been to  Exmouth in Devon this afternoon . The sea was very choppy and the wind was difficult to walk in . 

I've looked on windy.com and the wind is already at 35knots .

Is this Isha warming up and arriving early and also its on the south coast , I thought the main brunt of it was  starting north Cornwall coasts , north Somerset,  Wales coast and up through to Scotland later on .

The Irish Sea also looks very stormy at 60knots . 

 

No its not Isha its just a windy day, she's still way off in the Atlantic 

[Ladyofthestorm]

Does anyone have an update on the wind gust map for 12 am to 6 pm Monday morning fur the Western Isles?

 

We looked like we would miss it as we were right in the eye of the storm , but it looks like it will be 40 to 50 miles both of us the centre  so will get a pummelling. 

[Wade]

Just now, Ladyofthestorm said:

Does anyone have an update on the wind gust map for 12 am to 6 pm Monday morning fur the Western Isles?

 

We looked like we would miss it as we were right in the eye of the storm , but it looks like it will be 40 to 50 miles both of us the centre  so will get a pummelling. 

Indeed you will get badly hit, not once but twice, I advise you don't go camping for a while, you might get blown away. Looks serious for a lot of people but especially people in your location where it is exposed to the Atlantic.

[Ladyofthestorm]

18 minutes ago, Wade said:

Indeed you will get badly hit, not once but twice, I advise you don't go camping for a while, you might get blown away. Looks serious for a lot of people but especially people in your location where it is exposed to the Atlantic.

It more for securing livestock fences and feeding extra to the animals. I'm a fair weather camper. 

[Scribbler]

13 minutes ago, Somerset girl said:

I'm in Taunton too and it does get surprisingly windy here and I'll be looking out for fences and such like . Its already gusty here this afternoon.  

Damn!  I'd very briefly popped down to Budleigh Salterton around lunchtime (soon after I posted anyway) and it was pretty windy down there too, obviously.  Walking near the sea front was, as you say, difficult already.

Back again now and believe it or not, our neighbours fence is already leaning more than it was this morning.  Our views to their garden will change radicallly after this storm!

Our cats, meanwhile, have already got the wind-up!  They love it when it's windy and chase around the garden in much the same way as the leaves.  They're big (little) kids really!

Love to spend time on Windy - sometimes find out more there than on the Met Office forecast page.

[Fiona Robertson]

25 minutes ago, Ladyofthestorm said:

Does anyone have an update on the wind gust map for 12 am to 6 pm Monday morning fur the Western Isles?

 

We looked like we would miss it as we were right in the eye of the storm , but it looks like it will be 40 to 50 miles both of us the centre  so will get a pummelling. 

Somewhere further up this thread I saw someone post a model showing possibly 90+mph gusts for Western Isles and another model showing less. For the sake of the livestock I'd go with the worst one, just in case. I have horses and always prepare for worst case scenario (hubby claims that the horses themselves are a worst case scenario)

[A Face like Thunder]

34 minutes ago, Ladyofthestorm said:

Does anyone have an update on the wind gust map for 12 am to 6 pm Monday morning fur the Western Isles?

 

We looked like we would miss it as we were right in the eye of the storm , but it looks like it will be 40 to 50 miles both of us the centre  so will get a pummelling. 

Possibly, but not according to Chris F at lunchtime who had the Islands in the teeth of the Storm with winds in excess of 80mph. I suppose you may yet get in the eye of the storm but I don't think you should count on that. Good luck!

[Kasim Awan]

100mph possible in the sting jet into western Scotland at low levels supported by arpege and icon.

[Ice Day]

6 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

100mph possible in the sting jet into western Scotland at low levels supported by arpege and icon.

Yep, the Arpege has cranked things up a little across the board.  Now showing widespread 70mph gusts across Southern England on Sunday night.

 

Then into the small hours there's a very strong swathe of winds into the Western Isles. 95mph may be entirely possible.  

I'd hope this downgrades a little into the coming runs.

[Kasim Awan]

8 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Yep, the Arpege has cranked things up a little across the board.  Now showing widespread 70mph gusts across Southern England on Sunday night.

 

Then into the small hours there's a very strong swathe of winds into the Western Isles. 95mph may be entirely possible.  

I'd hope this downgrades a little into the coming runs.

Oh I’d go with Arpege and Icon over the UKV.

8 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Yep, the Arpege has cranked things up a little across the board.  Now showing widespread 70mph gusts across Southern England on Sunday night.

 

Then into the small hours there's a very strong swathe of winds into the Western Isles. 95mph may be entirely possible.  

I'd hope this downgrades a little into the coming runs.

Hope is unnecessary now we’re facing a likely severe sting in the far NW with 60-70mph widely inland I feel a widespread amber is needed.

Edited January 20 by Kasim Awan

[Ice Day]

And not to leave our Irish and Welsh members out, Southern Ireland and Wales looks to be hit hard earlier on Sunday evening

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, Ice Day said:

And not to leave our Irish and Welsh members out, Southern Ireland and Wales looks to be hit hard earlier on Sunday evening

60-70mph widely for inland areas is not to be taken lightly as it is a 1 in 5 year event. 

[birdman]

2 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

60-70mph widely for inland areas is not to be taken lightly as it is a 1 in 5 year event. 

Should be a countrywide amber I think despite this being an evening/overnight event. Hopefully people will avoid travel and trampolines!

[Alderc 2.0]

Looks like a storm that we get maybe once or twice a year. Nasty yes, overly concerning probably not. Western Scotland is used a proper battering so 90mph there is the equivalent of 70-75mph in the south imo. 

[wimblettben]

7 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

60-70mph widely for inland areas is not to be taken lightly as it is a 1 in 5 year event. 

Well for reference those wind gusts are usually the max you get on the coasts and hills in most deep lows in the winter period when inland areas get anywhere from 30-50mph gusts so if those gusts come off it will be quite an experience for us inlanders.

[Frank Sierra]

1 hour ago, Retron said:

A "normal" roof should be absolutely fine, despite the creaking and groaning, although the walls shaking isn't particularly fun for you! The thing to listen out for in your case is a dull sort of grinding or clunking noise, as of roof tiles rubbing together... if you hear that, it means your tiles are being lifted, and that's the precursor to them coming off. I'll never forget that grinding noise in 1987, followed by slithering and a crash... thankfully something I've not heard since. I had my verge and ridge tiles rebedded earlier this year, as they'd started to lift in the wind (the mortar having cracked). It's not a glamorous thing, but it helps bring peace of mind. 

Hopefully it won't be too bad for you! I know others have suggested earplugs, but if you have super-sensitive hearing as I do, all they do is dull the noises somewhat, not eliminate them. And if you're worrying about things flying off, you'll be all tensed up too, which doesn't help. 

Thank you for giving me that information, I really appreciate you taking the time to reply. I was tensed up last time just like you said. I feel a little more at ease though after having read in your reply that the roof should be okay. I wasn’t sure what to expect with this one, I’ve been really worried because the noise last time was very loud and it definitely had me thinking the roof is going to blow off any minute!

Thank you so much for putting my mind at ease a bit that really means a lot to me and is really kind of you. 

[wimblettben]

1 minute ago, Alderc 2.0 said:

Looks like a storm that we get maybe once or twice a year. Nasty yes, overly concerning probably not. Western Scotland is used a proper battering so 90mph there is the equivalent of 70-75mph in the south imo. 

No way, definitely at least a 1-5 year event as even the deepest lows in the winter only normally bring gusts of 40mph or 50mph inland at most.