UK Rain Is There Any Sign Of It Ending?

[Mark wheeler]

[Bristawl Si]

 raz.org.rain July 2023 CET came out as average or a little above solely because of mild temps at night. Daytime temps were decidely cool.

[Don]

15 minutes ago, raz.org.rain said:

that's why I'm unconvinced by the "cool and wet" summer predictions. I think July last year demonstrated that we can have the worst possible synoptics for midsummer and still barely see anything notably cool for any prolonged amount of time, in fact I think that July still came out with an above average CET. And that's despite the barrage of polar air that hit.

July 2023 had a below average CET compared to the recent averages, but at 16.1C, it was 0.2C above the 61-90 average.  However, like you say, taking into account the synoptics, it should have been cooler than what it was.  I think the high SST's went some way to prevent that.

Edited March 29 by Don

[Frigid]

A good example of a properly cool July wasn't too long ago, back in 2020. A CET of 15.8C, it was stuck around the high 14s low 15s for most of the month until the one day heat spike at the end. I suspect July 2023 would've been similar had the SSTs been around average. Goes to show we can still get pretty cool July's despite the exceptional warmth plaguing our weather. 

Edited March 30 by Frigid

[Don]

 raz.org.rain I’ve not seen any cool and wet summer predictions myself?  Or are you alluding to the idea of a rapid switch from El Niño to La Niña perhaps making for a poor summer?

[raz.org.rain]

 Don yes, I've seen it mentioned quite a lot especially lately. There's certainly some out there who are convinced that we could get a cool and wet summer, a lot of them seem to be basing that purely on the ENSO transition.

[LetItSnow!]

 

16 hours ago, raz.org.rain said:

that's why I'm unconvinced by the "cool and wet" summer predictions. I think July last year demonstrated that we can have the worst possible synoptics for midsummer and still barely see anything notably cool for any prolonged amount of tim

To be fair, the extreme SST anomalies even for the current climate meant that the month was far warmer than the same synoptics would have been even a year or two earlier. This point is also made a little void by the fact most of July 2020 was cool with the C.E.T. hovering in the 14s/low 15s for most of the month. It's just that expanding heat/heights to our south make those southerlies pack so much more of a punch that it's hard to escape their influence as the mean westerly flow in summer is now probably becoming more south--westerly as the Hadley Cell expands. But if we saw the same Atlantic dominated synoptics of July 2023 repeat in the 2025-2030 timeframe with more normal SSTs then I think it would be cooler than 16.1C. But as stated, pressure from the south is making it more and more difficult to avoid southerlies in the summer.

Edited March 30 by LetItSnow!

[Weather Enthusiast91]

Apart from the Easter weekend, it looks as if the mostly unsettled theme will be continuing for the foreseeable I'm afraid.

 

[Scorcher]

 kold weather 2006 had a poor spring for the most part as well.

March in particular was poor- cold and wet. April was cold to start with and unremarkable overall. There hadn't been any real warm days to speak of until that impressive short hot spell in early May.

The 2nd half of May was also poor.

 

[Daniel*]

No, there’s not.

[damianslaw]

 Daniel* March 95 indeed brought a notable flip after a prolonged atlantic dominated spell since Summer 92..Winter 94-95 was one of the wettest on record. It ushered in the driest 24 months on record, beating 75-76. A flip to very wet quickly resumed May 97 onwards through to about winter 02-03 when we entered a fairly dry phase culminating in the very dry Nov 05 to July 06 period. Autumn 06 flipped to very wet culminating in the very wet Nov 09, then a flip to very dry, culminating in the very dry April of 2011, and a wet period ensued again... 

[Fen Wolf]

Still raining…. Shoot me now

Today is not a good day 

Edited April 2 by Fen Wolf

[In Absence of True Seasons]

 Daniel* That looks woeful. 

To add further insult to injury, you can see that much of central Europe and Eastern Europe are / will be enjoying warmer, drier and sunnier conditions.

It's like the lows are specifically being spat out over the UK.

[Fen Wolf]

Gonna rain tonight but at least today IS a good day 

[stainesbloke]

Yet more rain overnight in west London, puddles everywhere but I can now see little areas of blue sky amongst the grey muck

[Fen Wolf]

On bbc app it is showing better weather arriving potentially in about a weeks time?  Is this real or likely an false horizon outlier 

[Fen Wolf]

I do not trust bbc at all tbh anymore & they have said continuous heavy rain all week on the app despite it being showers so maybe they have given up on the british weather too?
 

But if correct it might give us some hope but you watch it switch from all rain to no rain for months and months like i said, with hosepipe ban’s again in the summer . This happens a lot lately and it’s one extreme to another! 
 

I will be very happy to take months of dry over this because i can get things done easily and not battle the elements daily.  So i will be hoping for this and if it does become a drought then don’t worry; i am sure we will get enough rain in the winter 

Edited April 5 by Fen Wolf

[Paul]

 Fen Wolf The ECMWF (which the BBC use) and various other models have high pressure ridging temporarily north into southern Britain during the second half of next week. Most models agree it'll be quite brief though..

Here are the various ECM model maps for next Friday, including their AI one - all have high pressure playing a bit more of a role than we've seen of late 

  

[ANYWEATHER]

25 minutes ago, Fen Wolf said:

But if correct it might give us some hope but you watch it switch from all rain to no rain for months and months like i said, with hosepipe ban’s again in the summer . This happens a lot lately and it’s one extreme to another! 

If we did have enough reservoirs etc we would have enough capacity  to go without rain for a long time without the need to restrict water supply’s . The fact is there is not enough being done with our water supply infrastructure, and there is all the age old excuses , not enough rain , rain in the wrong place and the wrong type of rain , lame excuses that the general public have become deaf too, and rightly so! Anyway tentative signs of the rain train slowing down as ridges of high pressure become more frequent as we move ahead ….

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 Fen Wolf It'll disapppear. Always does ...

[Fen Wolf]

 Paul ok thanks for that Paul, was truly hoping for something a little more sustained and longer.  The dry spell we all want

[Fen Wolf]

 ANYWEATHER hopefully the government will sort something out but the way the country is going; it won’t be anytime soon.  They will rather send billions to aid in weapons and wars that do nothing for the British people.  It is sad times at the moment

 *Stormforce~beka* i really hope it doesn’t, we need some happy sunshine

[Summer8906]

 Mark wheeler lol. It didn't rain at 01:30 on Sunday 31st March - must have been a dry day

[Summer8906]

 Fen Wolf The last few GFS runs seem to have been going for a more sustained high pressure from around the 16th, a strong-looking one too.

Pattern seems to be a brief high pressure incursion around the 11th/12th, then more changeable (but not a deluge) and then the stronger high pressure kicks in sometime after that.

Even if it doesn't end up as anticyclonic as that, I guess there is growing sign that the mid-month period will be less unsettled and less dull, at least.

 Fen Wolf Man issue is that the current government probably care more about the directors and shareholders of the water companies than the water company customers.

[Methuselah]

 Fen Wolf What, the same colour of government that has spent three decades adding to the problem: Profits before people?