E.N.S.O. Discussion

[Don]

 damianslaw Yes, if we get a super cold winter, it will no doubt come when least expected! 

[damianslaw]

 Don 2024-25 here we come then!

[Don]

 damianslaw And with it being unexpected would make it all the better! 

[raz.org.rain]

 Don if localised SSTs drop low enough and we get a negative AO soon it could stand a chance of being a hot summer followed by a cold winter, sounds very continental.

[Don]

 raz.org.rain Well, you never know!  However, I'm not sure a negative AO would bode too well for a hot summer?  I would think the Jet stream could be on a more southerly track across the UK, rather than to the north?  However, if the NAO was to remain neutral or positive, then it could be a hot summer still?

Edited March 22 by Don

[raz.org.rain]

 Don whoops, that should be -NAO and not -AO. I was thinking of it the wrong way... it looks like the NAO has been trending strongly positive over the past few months after being negative for most of last year.

[Don]

 raz.org.rain A positive NAO would bode well for a hot summer.

[summer blizzard]

Down to -5 at the sub-surface.

[karyo]

Accuweather has issued their forecast for the 2024 hurricane season. A combination of a warm Atlantic and a developing La Nina is expected to give a lot of fuel to the hurricane season.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/videos/94d900bc-eae8-49f2-bdf5-09e2aace931a?utm_source=connatix&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=link

[summer blizzard]

20MAR2024: Nino3: 1.0, Nino3.4: 1.3, Nino4: 0.9

27MAR2024: Nino3: 0.9, Nino3.4: 1.0, Nino4: 0.8

March ONI fell to +1.2.

Edited April 2 by summer blizzard

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[summer blizzard]

03APR2024: Nino3: 1.0, Nino3.4: 1.2, Nino4: 0.9

[summer blizzard]

10APR2024: Nino3: 0.6, Nino3.4: 0.9, Nino4: 0.7

[SqueakheartLW]

Warmth is persisting and slightly increasing in the western Pacific and the El Nino is hanging on very well although has become a very modoki event now.

Nino 4                                                      Nino 3.4

Nino 3                                                      Nino 1+2

Anomalies                                                 7 day anomaly change

Are we sure we are heading to La Nina or are we going to set up a 2nd year Nino and a modoki event for winter 2024/25?

[cheeky_monkey]

 SqueakheartLW looking at previous La Nina and how they developed from an El Nino im 90% sure we are heading into a La Nina..the set up and the cooling is very similar to previous transitions 

[summer blizzard]

 SqueakheartLW

Current warmth is surface level and looks likely to be replaced.

[summer blizzard]

17APR2024: Nino3: 0.5, Nino3.4: 0.7, Nino4: 0.8

[sundog]

The beginning of the next La Niña starting to show.

[Don]

 sundog I wonder if it will lead to a cooling of the rest of the Pacific, which is currently very warm?!

[SqueakheartLW]

On 26/04/2024 at 16:02, sundog said:

The beginning of the next La Niña starting to show.

21 hours ago, Don said:

I wonder if it will lead to a cooling of the rest of the Pacific, which is currently very warm?!

 sundog  Don

Wondering if the switch back to La Nina will bring to an end this extended wetter and generally warmer than average period we've had really since the Nino developed last year.

Maybe we go back to dry just in time for summer.

I'm also not that convinced we'll end up with anything above a weak La Nina either. It seems to be taking it's time to show and those warm anomalies are holding on nicely too.

Maybe Cold Neutral is where we end up by the end of the year.

Edited Saturday at 18:05 by SqueakheartLW

[Don]

2 hours ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Wondering if the switch back to La Nina will bring to an end this extended wetter and generally warmer than average period we've had really since the Nino developed last year.

Maybe drier but can't see us losing the warmer than average theme.

[raz.org.rain]

 Don thus far the global SSTs are slow to respond, particularly in the Atlantic sector.

 

[karyo]

 raz.org.rain Indeed, and the Atlantic marine heatwave is giving rise to some eye watering forecasts for the hurricane season. Every forecast I have seen goes for a well above average season (some even for a record breaker) with higher number of storms entering the caribbean and GOM.

[SqueakheartLW]

 karyo

Record warm Atlantic and a La Nina = Record breaking hurricane season has to be guaranteed.

I would expect a hyperactive season this year.

Will it beat the ACE score from 2005. That is to be seen.

Edited Sunday at 18:07 by SqueakheartLW

[SqueakheartLW]

22 hours ago, raz.org.rain said:

thus far the global SSTs are slow to respond, particularly in the Atlantic sector.

 raz.org.rain

One thing of note is how close we are to a tripole in the N Atlantic with the warm tropical Atlantic and the near warm area near Greenland (except one small patch of blue) and the cooler area between them. I remember what they said about a tripole signature in May.