E.N.S.O. Discussion

[virtualsphere]

Following my last post I've been comparing the monthly CET figures for winter against ENSO data:

December

Similar to the seasonal charts I posted yesterday, the stronger the El Nino, the less likely the chance of a cold December CET.  La Nina has delivered a wide range of outcomes and even a strong La Nina in either 1+2 or 3.4 regions doesn't seem to inhibit a cold December.  This is based on average ENSO for the preceding Sept - Nov:

 

January

As with December, the strongest El Nino values are associated with warmer Januaries, however there are some examples creeping in here of moderate El Ninos with a colder January CET, especially in the 3.4 region (2010, 1942 etc).  Stronger La Nina values in the 3.4 region also seem to be associated with warmer Januaries, unlike in December, so a neutral ENSO would appear to be the best bet for a particularly frigid January.  Here, ENSO data is for the preceding Oct - Dec.  Apologies for the weird +1 on the year, I couldn't get Tableau to add 1 to the year of the ENSO data!  

 

February

This is more interesting and, in line with some of the earlier comments, you can see a few stronger El Ninos associated with colder Februaries.  The 3.4 region shows a lot more scatter while still trending slightly to warmer for the higher El Nino values.  1983 is a stand out particularly in the Nino 1+2 region data but 1889, 1942 and 1919 were sub-3C Februaries with +1 ENSO values.  1998 shows that exceptional warmth is still also a possibility.  Here the ENSO data is for the preceding Nov - Jan.

  

NB: in all the above, the colour represents the 3.4 region in the 1+2 graphs, and vice versa to try and give an idea of which region the strongest ENSO values are located.  eQBO is represented by a square, wQBO by a cross, though the data only goes back to 1979 so there's not much to go on here and earlier years are all represented by circles.  I was just going to ask if there's any older QBO datasets when I saw @BruenSryan's post above - so will have to take a look!

[chris888]

here's an article about el nino that you guys might be interested in

June 2023 ENSO update: El Niño is here | NOAA Climate.gov

WWW.CLIMATE.GOV

---

El Niño conditions are present and expected to continue into the winter. Our blogger discusses the thinking behind the forecast, including the possibility of a strong El Niño...

 

[summer blizzard]

59 minutes ago, Don said:

I can't quite remember, but I'm pretty sure an El Nino was forecast before it collapsed?

The springs of 2012, 2014 and 2017 all saw rapid warming before hitting summer. 2012 and 2017 then saw the event collapse and in the case of 2017, a moderate La Nina peak.

[Mike Poole]

On 27/07/2023 at 20:47, virtualsphere said:

Following my last post I've been comparing the monthly CET figures for winter against ENSO data:

December

Similar to the seasonal charts I posted yesterday, the stronger the El Nino, the less likely the chance of a cold December CET.  La Nina has delivered a wide range of outcomes and even a strong La Nina in either 1+2 or 3.4 regions doesn't seem to inhibit a cold December.  This is based on average ENSO for the preceding Sept - Nov:

 

January

As with December, the strongest El Nino values are associated with warmer Januaries, however there are some examples creeping in here of moderate El Ninos with a colder January CET, especially in the 3.4 region (2010, 1942 etc).  Stronger La Nina values in the 3.4 region also seem to be associated with warmer Januaries, unlike in December, so a neutral ENSO would appear to be the best bet for a particularly frigid January.  Here, ENSO data is for the preceding Oct - Dec.  Apologies for the weird +1 on the year, I couldn't get Tableau to add 1 to the year of the ENSO data!  

 

February

This is more interesting and, in line with some of the earlier comments, you can see a few stronger El Ninos associated with colder Februaries.  The 3.4 region shows a lot more scatter while still trending slightly to warmer for the higher El Nino values.  1983 is a stand out particularly in the Nino 1+2 region data but 1889, 1942 and 1919 were sub-3C Februaries with +1 ENSO values.  1998 shows that exceptional warmth is still also a possibility.  Here the ENSO data is for the preceding Nov - Jan.

  

NB: in all the above, the colour represents the 3.4 region in the 1+2 graphs, and vice versa to try and give an idea of which region the strongest ENSO values are located.  eQBO is represented by a square, wQBO by a cross, though the data only goes back to 1979 so there's not much to go on here and earlier years are all represented by circles.  I was just going to ask if there's any older QBO datasets when I saw @BruenSryan's post above - so will have to take a look!

Fascinating stuff.

The ENSO correlations are interesting, but I’m also struck by the QBO.  For the data points which you distinguish the QBO, it looks to me like the expected trend for east QBO to be colder, and west QBO to be warmer is there for January and February, but much less obvious for December.  I’m guessing this is reflecting that the impact of the QBO is often via increased likelihood of SSW, and therefore more obvious further on into winter?

By the way, measured QBO data from 1953 is available here:

QBO • Atmospheric Dynamics • Department of Earth Sciences

WWW.GEO.FU-BERLIN.DE

 

[Addicks Fan 1981]

2 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

Fascinating stuff.

The ENSO correlations are interesting, but I’m also struck by the QBO.  For the data points which you distinguish the QBO, it looks to me like the expected trend for east QBO to be colder, and west QBO to be warmer is there for January and February, but much less obvious for December.  I’m guessing this is reflecting that the impact of the QBO is often via increased likelihood of SSW, and therefore more obvious further on into winter?

By the way, measured QBO data from 1953 is available here:

QBO • Atmospheric Dynamics • Department of Earth Sciences

WWW.GEO.FU-BERLIN.DE

 

I also picked up on the positive IOD that was mentioned on the BOM Australian site @Mike Poolenow I'm not exactly sure with what that would entail, think @summer blizzardknows more about it than I do and he'll be able to explain it better as well.   

[Cheshire Freeze]

12 minutes ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

I also picked up on the positive IOD that was mentioned on the BOM Australian site @Mike Poolenow I'm not exactly sure with what that would entail, think @summer blizzardknows more about it than I do and he'll be able to explain it better as well.   

The IOD doesn't have much correlation to UK weather unless it's extremely strong in either direction.

Edited July 29, 2023 by CreweCold

[summer blizzard]

20 minutes ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

I also picked up on the positive IOD that was mentioned on the BOM Australian site @Mike Poolenow I'm not exactly sure with what that would entail, think @summer blizzardknows more about it than I do and he'll be able to explain it better as well.   

Basically in late stage Nino events you typically see a warmer than average Indian Ocean (though the dipole is west Indian Ocean Vs east near the equator) which basically leads to downstream relative easterlies over Indonesia and the western Pacific with a relative downstream westerly over the central and east Pacific. It's indicative of +ENSO dominating the global pattern. 

The 'but' is that if the +IOD is too strong as in 2019, it will just swamp the wider ENSO signal and basically produce too much convection in the Indian Ocean and not the westerly-easterly-westerly response. In 2019 the IOD was so strong that the downstream easterlies over the west Pacific were pushed into the central Pacific as well. We technically got a ENSO event in the east but the atmosphere behaved more like a NIna event because it responds more to the west and central Pacific than the east (higher nominal oceanic heat content most of the year).

It's a positive sign at the moment and suggests that the ENSO is becoming better coupled but we don't want it too strong.

For general impacts you can look towards the MJO phase 2-3 as somewhat indicative.

Edited July 29, 2023 by summer blizzard

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Thank you @summer blizzardthat is a big help to me.    

[sebastiaan1973]

You can read about the 2019/2020 event in this article https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/asl.1005

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Niño 1 & 2 3.0 

Niño 3        1.7

Niño 3.4     1.2

Niño 4        0.8

[SqueakheartLW]

3 hours ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

Niño 1 & 2 3.0 

Niño 3        1.7

Niño 3.4     1.2

Niño 4        0.8

A nice step in the right direction for Nino 1+2 with that 0.5C cooling.

Need Nino 1+2 to end up cooler than Nino 4 to set up a modoki event then hope that Nino 3.4 ends up the warmest region. Nino 3 is still a bit too warm for my liking if we want a decent chance of a colder winter.

[Cheshire Freeze]

7 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

A nice step in the right direction for Nino 1+2 with that 0.5C cooling.

Need Nino 1+2 to end up cooler than Nino 4 to set up a modoki event then hope that Nino 3.4 ends up the warmest region. Nino 3 is still a bit too warm for my liking if we want a decent chance of a colder winter.

I wonder if the slight cooling has coincided with the QBO going negative

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Found this from twitter from world climate service.   

 

[Don]

1 hour ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

Found this from twitter from world climate service.   

 

And yet it's showing a cold/blocked January!

[summer blizzard]

1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

I wonder if the slight cooling has coincided with the QBO going negative

QBO is in the upper atmosphere, not the oceanic surface. 

[SqueakheartLW]

45 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

QBO is in the upper atmosphere, not the oceanic surface. 

I did find a link between ENSO and the QBO. My post below in the link

EQBO favours CP El Nino's over EP El Nino's.

It also appears to fight against the development of the strongest El Nino events too.

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 hour ago, summer blizzard said:

QBO is in the upper atmosphere, not the oceanic surface. 

I believe it’s all interlinked. No point at looking solely at one level of the earth’s atmosphere when it comes to weather and climate.

As @SqueakheartLW has said, there does seem to be a relationship between QBO and ENSO states.

If QBO affects weather on the ground and weather on the ground affects, or is affected by, sea surface temperatures then I’d suggest there has to be a link…even if we don’t understand the mechanisms as yet.

Edited August 1, 2023 by CreweCold

[Cheshire Freeze]

7 hours ago, Don said:

And yet it's showing a cold/blocked January!

Merry Christmas from the CFS

Oh and a happy Valentines Day too

Edited August 2, 2023 by CreweCold

[summer blizzard]

ONI during July rose to +1.1. 

 

[sebastiaan1973]

On 01/08/2023 at 21:26, Don said:

And yet it's showing a cold/blocked January!

Yes it does.  https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2023080100&fh=5

Edited August 2, 2023 by sebastiaan1973

[Don]

5 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Yes it does.  https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2023080100&fh=5

Lets hope it's picked up on the correct trend at this very early stage!  That would be a genuine cold winter, if it were to come off.  Looking blocked for all three months!

Edited August 2, 2023 by Don

[Chesil View]

12 hours ago, Don said:

Lets hope it's picked up on the correct trend at this very early stage!  That would be a genuine cold winter, if it were to come off.  Looking blocked for all three months!

Indeed Don that Cansips run is very wintry for the UK.  The low anomalies over continental Europe for all three months certainly different to recent winters if it comes off. As Crewe has pointed out in  the past high anoms to our north  are not that much help without low anoms to our south over Europe.

Edited August 3, 2023 by Chesil View

[SqueakheartLW]

16 hours ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Yes it does.  https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2023080100&fh=5

16 hours ago, Don said:

Lets hope it's picked up on the correct trend at this very early stage!  That would be a genuine cold winter, if it were to come off.  Looking blocked for all three months!

4 hours ago, Chesil View said:

Indeed Don that Cansips run is very wintry for the UK.  The low anomalies over continental Europe for all three months certainly different to recent winters if it comes off. As Crewe has pointed out in  the past high anoms to our north  are not that much help without low anoms to our south over Europe.

Looks better the further into the winter too. A back loaded signal which is typical with El Nino

The February 2024 one looks most wintry with lower heights closer to the UK

Unfortunately CFS still going for borderline strong/super Nino which could scupper it all

Edited August 3, 2023 by SqueakheartLW

[Don]

10 hours ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Unfortunately CFS still going for borderline strong/super Nino which could scupper it all

Yes,  however at least there is still time for the CFS to be over doing it!

[summer blizzard]

MJJ ONI came in at +0.8. 

To update our list and ranking. 

Our updated list for AMJ.

1957: +1.1

1972: +0.9

1976: 0.0

1986: 0.0

2002: +0.7

2009: +0.3

2014: +0.2

2018: 0.0

2023: +0.8

For the third month we are tracking third.

 

To update on our ENSO trades index, July came in at +0.3 which is actually a worse outcome than June. Though still mean easterlies in Nino 3.4. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/cpac850

To compare to our primary analogue list since 1979 (standardised):

1986: -0.4

2002: -0.9

2009: +0.3

2014: 0.0

2018: +0.1

2023: +0.3

 

Some events were a bit stop-start early on but we are close to being behind the full pack. From August onwards, 1986 and 2014 actually had the best coupling through years end. 

Remember that our analysis last month showed a corellation between how early the event coupled and eventual strength so this may be another sign that the models are OTT (i still lean in the +1.3 to +1.7 range).