E.N.S.O. Discussion

[summer blizzard]

26 minutes ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

Do you know @summer blizzardhow summer 2022 was a success story weatherwise in the UK in spite of la niña?

In truth, not really. 

What we saw last summer was a coupled La Nina event producing strong trades and being reinforced by a significant -PDO. This was the tropical zonal wind chart for July from this thread for example. 

While i don't have an August chart, and we can never rule out a short warm spell in the UK, as unnexceptional as July was here, there's nothing there to indicate the two week hot spell the south has. I'd have suspected like the second half of this month that early August might see some amplification in response to an increase of AAM but nothing notable beyond the potential for a plume or two. 

The single factor supporting a warmer solution was the development of a +QBO event but that has much less impact in summer than it does winter. 

I might have been able to explain away the second half of last summer if the La Nina was waning or essentially gone like 2013 but last summer, i was simply not knowledgable enough.

While a little more hostile than normal, this summer has thankfully proven much easier to explain.  

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just out of interest's sake, the latest December CFS anomaly- Very moderate Nino-esque with the Euro trough anomaly

[Addicks Fan 1981]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Just out of interest's sake, the latest December CFS anomaly- Very moderate Nino-esque with the Euro trough anomaly

Looks a very fascinating signal @CreweColdand probably a west based -ve NAO signal too a bit.   

[northwestsnow]

If we get a moderate Nino we might have a good shout.

Hoping EC wrong..

[Addicks Fan 1981]

13 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

If we get a moderate Nino we might have a good shout.

Hoping EC wrong..

Knowing the track record of the ECM I think it could be right.   

[SqueakheartLW]

21 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Just out of interest's sake, the latest December CFS anomaly- Very moderate Nino-esque with the Euro trough anomaly

A nice early signal here but can it sustain and strengthen further as we head towards December.

Also of major note is that finally we are not seeing the default very high heights predicted for the NE Pacific for a change. Perhaps this is the thing we want to see to at least give us a chance of something colder for a change.

21 hours ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

Looks a very fascinating signal @CreweColdand probably a west based -ve NAO signal too a bit.   

Looks at bit more central based -NAO to me with the core of heights towards the east of Greenland

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Thank you very much @SqueakheartLWfor enlightening me on that, i now have a deeper understanding of it all now.    

[Addicks Fan 1981]

10th July 2023 update 

Niño 1 and 2 3.3 C

Niño 3            1.5 C

Niño 3.4         1.0 C

Nino 4             0.7 C

[Don]

On 09/07/2023 at 22:23, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

Knowing the track record of the ECM I think it could be right.   

And that's exactly my concern!

[Cheshire Freeze]

GLOSEA update out today. Only covers Oct-Dec but looks very troughy over Europe

We need to keep El Niño away from a strong event. If we do that then I think there’s a good chance we’ll see the Euro HP kept well away with troughing over Europe instead. It’s a common theme across the seasonal modelling thus far.

Either way, there’s the potential for this autumn to be extremely wet.

Ultimately December will be the test. If we get a cold December then I think the winter will go the route of 09/10 and be generally cold and wintry. That’s because under Nino the atmosphere will become more favourable to blocking as time goes on.

Edited July 11, 2023 by CreweCold

[SqueakheartLW]

15 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

GLOSEA update out today. Only covers Oct-Dec but looks very troughy over Europe

We need to keep El Niño away from a strong event. If we do that then I think there’s a good chance we’ll see the Euro HP kept well away with troughing over Europe instead. It’s a common theme across the seasonal modelling thus far.

Either way, there’s the potential for this autumn to be extremely wet.

Ultimately December will be the test. If we get a cold December then I think the winter will go the route of 09/10 and be generally cold and wintry. That’s because under Nino the atmosphere will become more favourable to blocking as time goes on.

Also a nice NE Pacific trough modelled for a change instead of a pesky ridge

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, SqueakheartLW said:

Also a nice NE Pacific trough modelled for a change instead of a pesky ridge

Yes. Also if you play the progression between Sep-Nov and Oct-Dec the HP anomaly just S of Greenland is a building feature, which suggests that the individual Dec anomaly may feature N Atlantic blocking.

[SqueakheartLW]

20 hours ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

10th July 2023 update 

Niño 1 and 2 3.3 C

Niño 3            1.5 C

Niño 3.4         1.0 C

Nino 4             0.7 C

That NINO 1+2 figure looks a bit concerning if we want to avoid a strong or super EP El Nino. Even if we see stronger trades appearing in the eastern Pacific it will only push that warmth into NINO 3, making the event even more EP based.

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, SqueakheartLW said:

That NINO 1+2 figure looks a bit concerning if we want to avoid a strong or super EP El Nino. Even if we see stronger trades appearing in the eastern Pacific it will only push that warmth into NINO 3, making the event even more EP based.

GLOSEA modelling-

[SqueakheartLW]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

GLOSEA modelling-

Does look a bit EP based unfortunately. Would want to see the core of the warm anomalies nearer 150W to 180W rather than the 90W to 130W shown here

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, SqueakheartLW said:

Does look a bit EP based unfortunately. Would want to see the core of the warm anomalies nearer 150W to 180W rather than the 90W to 130W shown here

Our hope if it is EP is for it to peak moderate. Should still be in with a chance of a decent winter then with the mature EQBO and lack of Pacific ridge.

[summer blizzard]

It's a bit of a weird setup with a displaced +AO. I'm pretty sure at least one month is diverging. 

The anomaly suggests a less weird pattern for the 500mb pattern so the polar vortex is weaker than normal but not reversed and it seems to indicate there's normally a Euro low at that time of year.

Edited July 11, 2023 by summer blizzard

[Don]

12 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

It's a bit of a weird setup with a displaced +AO. I'm pretty sure at least one month is diverging. 

The anomaly suggests a less weird pattern for the 500mb pattern so the polar vortex is weaker than normal but not reversed and it seems to indicate there's normally a Euro low at that time of year.

That pressure chart to me looks like a pattern which has been common in recent years, with northern blocking but also a pesky ridge to the south?!

2 hours ago, SqueakheartLW said:

That NINO 1+2 figure looks a bit concerning if we want to avoid a strong or super EP El Nino. Even if we see stronger trades appearing in the eastern Pacific it will only push that warmth into NINO 3, making the event even more EP based.

Always a fly in the ointment these days!

[damianslaw]

2 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

It's a bit of a weird setup with a displaced +AO. I'm pretty sure at least one month is diverging. 

The anomaly suggests a less weird pattern for the 500mb pattern so the polar vortex is weaker than normal but not reversed and it seems to indicate there's normally a Euro low at that time of year.

Has to be troughs somewhere - can"t see any lower heights north hemisphere except far NE Russia. The yellow to our south probably where trough would reside, and another one SE USA. A cold pattern for UK locked on polar side of jet I think. 

[summer blizzard]

To update on our ENSO trades index, June came in at +0.1 which is an improvement albeit slow. Though still mean easterlies in Nino 3.4. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/cpac850

To compare to our primary analogue list since 1979 (standardised):

2023: +0.1

 

1986: 0.6

2002: 0.0

2009: -0.6

2014: 0.2

2018: -0.9

 

So we can see the atmospheric response almost instantly coupled as 2009 and 2018 began (both Nina to Nino flip) while we continue to dawdle despite more Pacific warmth. 

 

Remember that our analysis last month showed a corellation between how early the event coupled and eventual strength so this may be another sign that the models are OTT (i still lean in the +1.3 to +1.7 range). 

[Mike Poole]

For me, the countdown to winter has just begun with the July long-range models now covering December.  

I will be watching developments re ENSO in particular - but my interest is definitely piqued this year already.  

Seasonal model predictions for December, height anomalies:

Looking blocked and -AO on all of them (I ignore the ECCC, it is always at odds with the others!).

And surface pressure anomalies:

CMC the pick for me - Greenland high and euro trough - no nonsense, BANK!

Edited July 13, 2023 by Mike Poole

[Cheshire Freeze]

6 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

For me, the countdown to winter has just begun with the July long-range models now covering December.  

I will be watching developments re ENSO in particular - but my interest is definitely piqued this year already.  

Seasonal model predictions for December, height anomalies:

Looking blocked and -AO on all of them (I ignore the ECCC, it is always at odds with the others!).

And surface pressure anomalies:

CMC the pick for me - Greenland high and euro trough - no nonsense, BANK!

Certainly some interest in there. The UKMO and DWD aren’t too shabby either.

[northwestsnow]

I've read a piece online ( and i can't remember where ) that super El Nino is favoured for winter.

 

[Addicks Fan 1981]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I've read a piece online ( and i can't remember where ) that super El Nino is favoured for winter.

 

So in other words they are upping the ante with the niño forecast which will probably set up more warming of the world next year?  

[SqueakheartLW]

19 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I've read a piece online ( and i can't remember where ) that super El Nino is favoured for winter.

 

 

14 minutes ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

So in other words they are upping the ante with the niño forecast which will probably set up more warming of the world next year?  

They are probably reacting to the over estimating ECM ENSO forecast that came out earlier this month. It was going for a Super Nino to start next month but so far there has been little warming during this month and it would take something unusual and extreme to reach Super Nino in region 3.4 by next month.

I would guess we will be borderline moderate at most this month and probably more definite moderate next month with moderate to strong the most likely NIno 3.4 peak around November 2023.

Whether we get EP event or a CP event is still up for grabs. CP would be better for a colder winter of course.