E.N.S.O. Discussion

[cheeky_monkey]

1 hour ago, blizzard81 said:

Spot on Don. Something I have spotted over the last few weeks. The Meto used to put great emphasis on this when issuing early winter forecast thoughts. It gives reason for optimism imo. 

its the usual clutching at straws if you aske me

[Don]

2 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

its the usual clutching at straws if you aske me

Perhaps but it's worth a mention.....

[summer blizzard]

10MAY2022: Nino3: 0.9 , Nino3.4: 0.5 , Nino4: 0.2

[blizzard81]

22 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

its the usual clutching at straws if you aske me

Absolutely. It's what we do best!

[sebastiaan1973]

El Nino 2023-2024 - Page 25 - Weather Forecasting and Discussion - American Weather

WWW.AMERICANWX.COM

 "Thread discussing potential analog years based on moderate to strong east-weighted El Nino, -PDO, warm tropical Atlantic/Canary Current and Wet Sahel.  The juxtaposition of relatively strong El Nino on the one hand and -PDO, very warm Atlantic and wet Sahel on the other hand (which generally don't go together with El Nino) is rather rare.  Need to go pretty far back in time to find appropriate analogs IMHO:"

 

Edited May 17, 2023 by sebastiaan1973

[blizzard81]

On 14/05/2023 at 22:57, Don said:

The North Atlantic currently looks like being close to a tripole to me, too?  This is interesting, considering the theory that a tripole in May is a sign of a negative NAO for the following winter!

Another important thing to note about the current May tripole are the cold anomalies in the Italy locale. Two things that cross my mind in this regards. Firstly, this may well have had a bearing on the big floods over there recently. Secondly, if the May tripole theory holds true, I'm thinking classic Genoa low with resulting classic easterlies for western Europe. Ok, I could be getting ahead of myself slightly . 

[summer blizzard]

15 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Another important thing to note about the current May tripole are the cold anomalies in the Italy locale. Two things that cross my mind in this regards. Firstly, this may well have had a bearing on the big floods over there recently. Secondly, if the May tripole theory holds true, I'm thinking classic Genoa low with resulting classic easterlies for western Europe. Ok, I could be getting ahead of myself slightly . 

You'd probably want to see a May average rather than an individual chance but it would probably suggest a bias towards a neutral to negative NAO. 

The Mediterranean bit does not really correlate in the same way since it's shallower and so more prone to seasonal fluctuation.

Worth remembering though that the May SST to NAO correlation is not a strong one.

[Don]

20 hours ago, blizzard81 said:

Another important thing to note about the current May tripole are the cold anomalies in the Italy locale. Two things that cross my mind in this regards. Firstly, this may well have had a bearing on the big floods over there recently. Secondly, if the May tripole theory holds true, I'm thinking classic Genoa low with resulting classic easterlies for western Europe. Ok, I could be getting ahead of myself slightly . 

Is the negative PDO fading a little on that chart?

[blizzard81]

12 minutes ago, Don said:

Is the negative PDO fading a little on that chart?

I was thinking the same to be honest. I think the sst's look promising. Just one piece of the jigsaw though. 

 

[blizzard81]

20 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

You'd probably want to see a May average rather than an individual chance but it would probably suggest a bias towards a neutral to negative NAO. 

The Mediterranean bit does not really correlate in the same way since it's shallower and so more prone to seasonal fluctuation.

Worth remembering though that the May SST to NAO correlation is not a strong one.

Yep. Exeter used to give it consideration in their winter forecasts but don't hear much about it now which is a little strange. 

[Don]

54 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I was thinking the same to be honest. I think the sst's look promising. Just one piece of the jigsaw though. 

 

Yes and that's not what we want!  Atlantic SST's do look good, but these days especially, we need the full jigsaw and even then we can still end up with a mild winter, courtesy of climate change!

[sebastiaan1973]

Compared to late winter, the early winter response of the NAE region to ENSO is only starting to be understood (Abid et al., 2021; Ayarzaguena et al., 2018; King et al., 2018). The next section analyses the relationship between the EAP and wider climate drivers in early winter, to assess the physical processes involved.

In early winter observations, a positive EAP is associated with warmer Pacific equatorial SSTs (El Niño, Figure 3a), increased rainfall over the tropical Pacific and western Indian Ocean (Figure 3b) and a weakened Walker circulation (Figure 3c). Such dynamics are known to generate Rossby waves which then propagate into the mid-latitudes (Abid et al., 2021; Ayarzaguena et al., 2018; Hoskins & Karoly, 1981; Scaife, Comer, Dunstone, Knight, et al., 2017). Two Rossby wave trains appear to be associated with the EAP, one originating in the tropical west Pacific and arching around the Pacific basin, the other originating in the Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico region, propagating north and east into the Atlantic basin (Figure 3d). The Rossby wave trajectories seen here agree with those observed in early winter El Niño events (Ayarzaguena et al., 2018, see their Figure 5 for example trajectories). The net effect of these Rossby wave trains is a low-pressure center to the west of the UK that projects onto the EAP. 

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2022GL100712

[sebastiaan1973]

El Nino and Ocean
The start of El Niño, in the area along the equator between Peru on the one hand and Indonesia on the other, and the average high water temperatures in our part of the Atlantic Ocean appear to be important for the weather development in the coming summer. The start of El Niño is expected at any moment, because the deviation of the water temperatures in the central part of the aforementioned area is already at plus 0.5 degrees. That is the threshold for the start of an El Niño. Only in the west, in the vicinity of Indonesia, the warm water has yet to arrive in the near future.

That area in the west, also known as ENSO Region 4, seems to be of great importance for the summer weather in Europe. There appears to be a fairly strong relationship between the average summer temperatures in the western half of Europe and the sea surface temperatures in that ENSO Region 4. The warmer the sea water there becomes (ie the stronger the El Niño), the greater the chance that the summer temperatures in the western half of Europe are clearly higher than normal. Funnily enough, there is hardly any connection with the central and eastern regions in the ENSO area. The faster El Niño expands westward in the coming weeks, the greater the chance that the summer will turn out to be warm in our country. 

https://www.weer.nl/nieuws/2023/zomerverwachting-2023-warm-zonnig-en-eerste-helft-vaak-droog

Weer.nl 

Based on world climate service

[summer blizzard]

17MAY2022: Nino3: 0.9 , Nino3.4: 0.5 , Nino4: 0.3

[SqueakheartLW]

Looks like the development of NINO has stalled based on these recent SST changes

This is also reflected in the recent data I have gathered from tropical tidbits too.

You can see how during early May we were slowly creeping up to El Nino threshold in region 3.4 and around the middle of the month we did see 3 days of Weak El Nino. Since then we have generally started to cool things down, not just in region 3.4 but all regions have cooled somewhat since then, especially region 1+2.

Now is this a temporary thing and then we resume the path to El Nino or are we seeing the first signs here of a failed El Nino. The historical events based on the PDO as well as previous season ENSO status of La Nina as well as strongly negative PDO to open the year do suggest we have quite a high chance of a failure of El Nino. Below we have the data I gathered from this a few weeks back.

It showed that under the circumstances of La Nina the previous ENSO season as well as a strongly negative PDO to open up the year. Of the 39 years that featured this, 22 of 39 went on to feature another La Nina, 9 of 39 went on to be neutral and 8 of 39 went on to develop El Nino.

This statistically means we have a 31 in 39 chance that El Nino will fail to develop this year. Now is the recent cooling a sign of this or is it just a temporary blip?

[summer blizzard]

Euro was forecasting another MJO wave forming in mid June. The current wave did not really get out of the western Pacific with resultant trades downstream. 

We are likely to see Nino 1+2 and 4 weaken however with so much warmth in the east the initial response for a few weeks is likely to see some sloshing of the warmth further west meaning that Nino 3 and 3.4 shouldn't change too much. 

But your correct that without this event producing over the central/eastern Pacific, nothing much will happen. 

[Don]

1 hour ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Looks like the development of NINO has stalled based on these recent SST changes

 

What I particularly don't like is that significant warming taking place in the north eastern Pacific!! 

[damianslaw]

2 hours ago, Don said:

What I particularly don't like is that significant warming taking place in the north eastern Pacific!! 

Permanent feature nowadays.

[Don]

24 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Permanent feature nowadays.

Indeed, but that doesn’t make it any better!

[summer blizzard]

24MAY2022: Nino3: 0.8 , Nino3.4: 0.4 , Nino4: 0.4

Latest Euro and GFS forecasts for June.. 

So the first thing to note is that they both agree on a new wave developing around mid-June but out to July and there's nothing of substance in terms of the normal atmospheric coupling on the GFS. The Euro is a little difference in that it has forcing in the eastern Pacific being dominant. 

It's worth saying that right now, short term modelling for the first half of June does not support any signficant wave around the eastern Pacific outside the current passage which will gone in a few days. 

It's also worth saying that this is very much a retreat from its prior forecasts of energy based in the central Pacific. 

 

[JeffC]

On 13/05/2023 at 21:07, CreweCold said:

Interesting the CFS is predicting a strong Nino but also projects a very robust cold winter precursor pattern for November, the chart is VERY 2009

 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbz700MonInd6.gif

It’s of interest because it’ll be incorporating the forecast strong Nino when producing the above anomaly chart.

So long as we don't have the same Floods in November!

[daz_4]

El Niño conditions are present and are expected to gradually strengthen into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2023-24.

Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

On 13/05/2023 at 21:07, CreweCold said:

Interesting the CFS is predicting a strong Nino but also projects a very robust cold winter precursor pattern for November, the chart is VERY 2009

 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbz700MonInd6.gif

It’s of interest because it’ll be incorporating the forecast strong Nino when producing the above anomaly chart.

A month on and where do we stand with this?

Well the anomalies have become more muted, for sure, but there's still that signal there

[Don]

22 hours ago, CreweCold said:

A month on and where do we stand with this?

Well the anomalies have become more muted, for sure, but there's still that signal there

With El Nino looking increasingly likely to be moderate or strong, hopes hinge on it becoming a Modoki event if we want the chance of a colder winter next year!

[summer blizzard]

31MAY2022: Nino3: 1.1 , Nino3.4: 0.8 , Nino4: 0.6

Edited June 10, 2023 by summer blizzard